18/19 Race for Promotion

[Demitri_C]

45 minutes ago, Londonastonvilla said:

I think our main threat to playoffs are now Middlesbororugh and Derby.I can see boro winning there 3 remaining easy games giving them 76 points.Derby have 3 winnable games including WBA on last day where Albion will have nothing to play for and will probably rest players for play offs.Derby do have that tricky game against Bristol.If that game is a draw that gives them 74 points or a win 76 points.

We need to beat Millwall and get a point from Leeds or Norwich

We only really need one more win I'd imagine. Four tops. 

[JamesBCFC]

On 18/04/2019 at 12:47, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Meanwhile in Bristol City 

@JamesBCFC

It was **** ridiculous.

Fully understand that a club would mark up, and just for balance 90% of the time these were on sale there was a "50% off everything" deal in the shop, but they still took the piss with this.

That said it's not a story that should have reached front page of the BBC website

 

Club was wrong to do it, and today's result was shit been a bad week for us. And despite all this I just bought my ticket for Millwall away- I think I need a lobotomy.

[mikeyp102]

36 minutes ago, a m ole said:

I’d rather be top of the form table

In all of Europe 

[StewieGriffin]

One more win will do it I think. I dont see Bristol or Derby getting to 75.

Pleased Leeds lost - it means they need to be full tilt for next weekend and we'll get a better measure of them. Should we meet them in the playoffs, Id rather have just played a team needing to win and having to throw it all at us rather than one who effectively had nothing to play for. Also means we could rest one or two for Norwich - i think we'll change it up against Millwall too

Still think they'll get 2nd mind you

Edited April 19, 2019 by StewieGriffin

[VILLAMARV]

West Bromwich Albion - Reading(a), Rotherham United, Derby County(a)
Aston Villa - Millwall, Leeds United(a), Norwich City
Middlesbrough - Nottingham Forest(a),  Reading, Rotherham United(a)
----------------------------------------------------
Bristol City - Sheffield Wednesday(a), Derby County, Millwall(a), Hull City(a)
Derby County - Queens Park Rangers, Bristol City(a), Swansea City(a), West Bromwich Albion

Preston North End - Wigan Athletic(a), Sheffield Wednesday, Brentford(a)
Hull City - Sheffield United, Swansea City(a), Bristol City
Swansea City - Ipswich Town(a), Hull City, Derby County, Blackburn(a)
Sheffield Wednesday - Norwich(a), Bristol City, Preston North End(a), Queens Park Rangers

Target moves to 77 points or more then. Baggies need 1 point to secure a play off spot now.
Mathematically we still need 5 points for 6th. Boro and Derby could each get to 76 points, Bristol City could still get 78.

Looking at the fixtures Derby and Bristol have some tough games in there. Boro not so much. The other 4 would need a massive collapse to nick the last spot but there's a few 6 pointers in there. Weds need to beat Norwich tonight to keep the dream alive.

Baggies are all but there then, we have our own fate in our hands, along with Bristol City. Boro need 3 wins and hope Bristol City lose a game and Derby drop some points somewhere. If Derby and Boro win all their remaining games it will come down to goal difference between them.

[VILLAMARV]

Dont have a clue between Leeds and Sheff Utd but I think Baggies, Villa and Boro take the other 3 spots from here.

[Guest av1]

I don't know why given their form, but I'm more worried about baggies in the semi final than Leeds or UTD in the final. 

[kiltorken]

1 hour ago, av1 said:

I don't know why given their form, but I'm more worried about baggies in the semi final than Leeds or UTD in the final. 

I have a healthy respect for West broms team, Dwight gayle and Jay Rodrigues are prem strikers and really that squad should be in the top two. On the other hand I think I think we are well capable of beating them,  as a cohesive unit I think we are the best oiled machine in the league (at the moment). 

[GingerCollins29]

Our wingers worry me. I have confidence in the rest of the team but adomah is more often than not anonymous, so Ghazi can be a world beater or not depending which one turns up and everyone knows my feelings on andre

[Tomaszk]

1 minute ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Our wingers worry me. I have confidence in the rest of the team but adomah is more often than not anonymous, so Ghazi can be a world beater or not depending which one turns up and everyone knows my feelings on andre

We're very strong through the middle and very weak out wide. God, if we'd have got Lolley in Jan...

Proper dream to play for going forward as well. If you're a striker you get loads of chances, if you're a winger you get so many opportunities at 1-on-1.

[VillaChris]

3 games left and I still have no idea what to make of this season. Two months back of course I'd have bitten both hands off for a play off chance but now I look at it as a massive missed opportunity.

Just 10 more points on the board and we'd be favourites to go up in second. This is easily the weakest bunch of top teams in the three years we've been down here, look at Norwich now choking when they need just one more win.

If we're still at this level next year I'd fancy us for top 2 as I look at Huddersfield coming down with an awful squad and don't see them challenging and Cardiff also overachieved in actually getting promoted and Warnock will probably retire. Fulham the one wildcard but they remind me of Swansea and Stoke coming down with bloated squads and neither have challenged for top 6.

Shame if we've set ourselves up to get promoted at some point in next 12 months and come to the point at which we will lose Jack (Tammy can be replaced as championship is a pretty easy league for a striker to score in).

One thing we have learnt, you can only afford one bad run in a season if you're serious about top 2. We've started poorly in all three years and that allows 4-5 teams to build up decent leads on us. Once we recover we then had a really poor run over the xmas period.

If you can win 8-9 straight in March-April you can do it in August-September aswell. That's what Wolves and Newcastle did so it would be nice to start a season in form for once.

[VillaChris]

4 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

I think if Leeds don't finish second I think boro can cause them major problems. 

I know Leeds are really struggling but I still wouldn't fancy them in a one off final at Wembley, gives me too much of Fulham vibes I'm afraid in that we'd struggle to counter their pass and move style just as much as we couldn't cope with Fulham. Good performance is needed anyway at Elland Road to give them serious thoughts for play offs.

Boro on the other hand would be a dream final. They have not scored against us in SIX games now (five under Pulis) and we've beaten them 6-0 this season. We well and truly have their number in the match up so even by our standards it would be a real choke to lose to them in the final.

[Demitri_C]

I know we won't catch them but bloody hell how many late goals do Norwich score. Its ridiculous 

[jjaacckk91]

2 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I know we won't catch them but bloody hell how many late goals do Norwich score. Its ridiculous 

I'm convinced that ref was going to let them keep playing until they scored. No idea how he hadn't blown up

[turvontour]

17 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

3 games left and I still have no idea what to make of this season. Two months back of course I'd have bitten both hands off for a play off chance but now I look at it as a massive missed opportunity.

Just 10 more points on the board and we'd be favourites to go up in second. This is easily the weakest bunch of top teams in the three years we've been down here, look at Norwich now choking when they need just one more win.

If we're still at this level next year I'd fancy us for top 2 as I look at Huddersfield coming down with an awful squad and don't see them challenging and Cardiff also overachieved in actually getting promoted and Warnock will probably retire. Fulham the one wildcard but they remind me of Swansea and Stoke coming down with bloated squads and neither have challenged for top 6.

Shame if we've set ourselves up to get promoted at some point in next 12 months and come to the point at which we will lose Jack (Tammy can be replaced as championship is a pretty easy league for a striker to score in).

One thing we have learnt, you can only afford one bad run in a season if you're serious about top 2. We've started poorly in all three years and that allows 4-5 teams to build up decent leads on us. Once we recover we then had a really poor run over the xmas period.

If you can win 8-9 straight in March-April you can do it in August-September aswell. That's what Wolves and Newcastle did so it would be nice to start a season in form for once.

Am i correct in thinking that if we had beaten Leeds we would be four points behind them, with them still to play.

That just incredible when you think how bad we were for a third of the season.

[wilko154]

Ifs and Buts (updated)

And we keep winning...

 

West Brom to draw to Hull - West Brom Win 

Bristol to beat Reading - Draw 

Boro to draw to Stoke - Boro Win 

Derby to draw to Blues - Draw 

Villa to beat Bolton - Villa Win 

 

4 - West Brom - 76 points

5 - Villa - 72 points

6 - Boro - 67 point

7 - Bristol - 66 points

8 - Derby - 64 points

 

 Games in hand - Derby x 1 & Bristol x 1

[wilko154]

Ifs and Buts (updated)

Easter Monday and a chance to cement the playoff place.

 

West Brom to beat Reading

Boro to draw to Forest

Bristol to lose to Sheff W

Derby to beat QPR

Villa to beat Millwall

 

4 - West Brom - 79 points

5 - Villa - 75 points

6 - Boro - 68 point

7 - Derby - 67 points

8 - Bristol - 66 points

 

 Games in hand - Derby x 1 & Bristol x 1

[Mark Albrighton]

12 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I know we won't catch them but bloody hell how many late goals do Norwich score. Its ridiculous 

At least a draw keeps alive Sheff Wed’s faint play off hopes which in turn should mean they’ll give Bristol City a game on Monday. 

[VillaChris]

9 minutes ago, turvontour said:

Am i correct in thinking that if we had beaten Leeds we would be four points behind them, with them still to play.

That just incredible when you think how bad we were for a third of the season.

Even at xmas we weren't that far off top 2, Norwich were well clear but leeds, Derby, Boro were only 6-7 points clear and we've overtaken two of them.

Some of our January/Feb results were shocking, 3-0 at Wigan, 0-0 at Reading, 2-2s at home to Hull and QPR. Of course this isn't a league where you just beat the bottom teams but we lost any chance of automatic promotion in that run.

[Mark Albrighton]

12 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Even at xmas we weren't that far off top 2, Norwich were well clear but leeds, Derby, Boro were only 6-7 points clear and we've overtaken two of them.

Some of our January/Feb results were shocking, 3-0 at Wigan, 0-0 at Reading, 2-2s at home to Hull and QPR. Of course this isn't a league where you just beat the bottom teams but we lost any chance of automatic promotion in that run.

In fairness Hull were in stunning form at the time, having won six on the bounce before meeting us - (2-0 Brentford, Swansea 3-2, Preston 2-1, Leeds 2-0, Bolton 6-0, Sheff Wed 3-0). So in that one instance a draw wasn’t a bad result.

QPR were on a four game unbeaten run too at the time, but of course annoyingly they fall apart after playing us.

But yeah you’re correct, you can’t have too many bad spells in a season and have serious aspirations of automatic promotion. We could have gotten away with either the generally rubbish opening twelve games or the rubbish start of 2019, not both.

It happened last season too, although the bad runs weren’t as lengthy but they appeared at points in the season when it had previously looked like we were getting a foothold in the season.