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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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A draw for either Derby or Boro would leave them a possible maximum haul of 74. A loss - 73). So if they both drop points tomorrow and we win, yes, we're in the playoffs. As we would be sat on 75.

Bristol City could draw tomorrow and still end up on 76. Lose tomorrow and the most they could get would be 75. So mathematically, goal difference etc. (ours is much higher - so all but there)

Boro draw/lose + Bristol draw/lose + Villa win = YES
Boro draw/lose + Derby draw/lose + Villa win = YES
Derby draw/lose + Bristol draw + Villa win = NO
Derby draw/lose + Bristol lose + Villa win = NO but all but there (goal difference with Bristol)

Basically Boro and one of the other 2 drop points and we win and I think so!

I think :D

 

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Yeah I came to the same conclusion. Sorry if this is repeating what @VILLAMARV has just said, but I spent a few minutes working this out, and I’m tired and hungover and I can’t let it all be for nought.

Let’s say the two teams not winning are Bristol City and Derby. We win, we’re on 75. They both draw and Boro win, Boro are on 70, Bristol 67 and Derby 65. With two games left, Boro could overtake us by one point as could Bristol City if they win all their remaining games.

So in that instance, no we wouldn’t have sealed it. If Boro draw, they can only reach 74 points. I think it can be sealed tomorrow (discounting goal difference), but we have to win, Boro have to drop points and one of Derby or Bristol City do too. 

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5 hours ago, Jareth said:

Ok, Brizzle and Derby lose today and we win = play-offs. Make it so.

Actually we only need Boro and one of Derby or Bristol City to not win to guarantee playoffs. Even just Boro not winning will assure we can't drop below 6th on points but GD, which would require a 13 goal swing in Bristol City's favour.

Edited by fightoffyour
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Derby can’t touch us now, unless they won all 4 remaining games, we lose our 2 and a goal swing of 14. unlikely.

If Derby did win all those games, it would mean Bristol would have to win their other 3 with a goal swing of 14 to be ahead of us.

Boro loss today may make us all but mathematically in the playoffs?

Edited by a m ole
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