Israel, Palestine and Iran

[OutByEaster?]

There's a hint we might not see an escalation and we can only hope that's the case - of course we'll be relying on Donald Trump for that so who knows.

If the Ukrainian airline crash is a result of overzealous missile defence, then that'll muddy the waters still further, but it's hard to believe it's a coincidental accident. 

This ain't good.

 

[Chindie]

The passenger flight seems to have come down from engine failure.

[Genie]

15 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The passenger flight seems to have come down from engine failure.

Boeing probably hoping it was shot with a missile.

[wilko154]

An 'engine failure'

Very coincidental that a burning plane fell out of the sky in a country that began firing missiles hours earlier.

Not really an everyday occurrence.

[Awol]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

Yes, it sounds like the missiles were just a face saving exercise for the crowds so Iran can go back to the proxy warfare it knows best. 

This tweet makes it sound like Trump is also satisfied with that. 

This sounds like the right take. Not even any attempt made by SAM/CIWS systems to intercept the missiles fired at targets in Iraq.. more than a little strange. 

Coalition saying no casualties, Iranian media claiming scores of US casualties.

Smells like performance art to give the Iranians a face-saving off-ramp from a war nobody wants. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Awol

[Seat68]

25 minutes ago, wilko154 said:

An 'engine failure'

Very coincidental that a burning plane fell out of the sky in a country that began firing missiles hours earlier.

Not really an everyday occurrence.

I believe it's Ukraine that have said this. 

[Awol]

52 minutes ago, wilko154 said:

An 'engine failure'

Very coincidental that a burning plane fell out of the sky in a country that began firing missiles hours earlier.

Not really an everyday occurrence.

Air France has suspended all flights over Iraqi and Iranian airspace, effective immediately. Ukrainian President opening criminal investigation into the incident. 

Good luck getting in and out of Dubai for a while if other airlines follow. 

Clearly some suspicion that this wasn’t a freak accident, tragic if trigger happy Iranian air defence took it down by mistake. 

[Chindie]

It seems pretty clear that this is Iran making a half hearted response to the US' provocation. They couldn't leave the attack without reply, but they don't want to provoke a war. They've put the ball in the US' court - do you really want to push this?

[sne]

8 minutes ago, Awol said:

Air France has suspended all flights over Iraqi and Iranian airspace, effective immediately. Ukrainian President opening criminal investigation into the incident. 

Good luck getting in and out of Dubai for a while if other airlines follow. 

Clearly some suspicion that this wasn’t a freak accident, tragic whatever the reason 

FTFY

[Seat68]

It had a large number of Iranians on it. I really think it was just an accident. 

[Awol]

6 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It seems pretty clear that this is Iran making a half hearted response to the US' provocation. They couldn't leave the attack without reply, but they don't want to provoke a war. They've put the ball in the US' court - do you really want to push this?

Quite possible it was agreed in advance.  The Iranians have demonstrated their capability to hit targets from range with pin-point accuracy - check out the photos of the Aramco facility in Saudi after the Iranian attack.

With not a single coalition or Iraqi casualty from 12+ missiles with a 500kg HE payload each is... suspicious, to say the least. 

[sne]

Guess we'll find out once the full passenger lists are out if any big name Iranian was on the flight and if so if this will be used to keep the conflict going by pointing fingers.

10 Swedes confirmed dead on the flight.

Edit: Upgraded to 17 Swedes dead now. Not that Swedes dying are sadder than anyone else dying, it just hits closer to home.

Edited January 8, 2020 by sne

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

Air France has suspended all flights over Iraqi and Iranian airspace, effective immediately. Ukrainian President opening criminal investigation into the incident. 

Good luck getting in and out of Dubai for a while if other airlines follow. 

Clearly some suspicion that this wasn’t a freak accident, tragic if trigger happy Iranian air defence took it down by mistake. 

i took that suspension to be a precaution against a MH-117 type episode   , rather than a direct response to this crash

[peterms]

56 minutes ago, Awol said:

Quite possible it was agreed in advance.

I'm sure that's right.  It was clearly impossible for Iran to make no response, and that will be obvious to the US, perhaps even to Trump, so there has to be a way to make a response without things getting further out of hand.  There will have been discussions.

What would be the best way forward for Iran, rather than blowing things up and killing people as the US would do, would be to work with other countries to develop long-term approaches to things like moving away from the dollar as reserve currency, making oil sales other than in dollars, having alternative international payments clearing systems and so on.  That is quite risky, and creates the possibility of the US trying to engineer a pretext for military action to maintain its hegemony, and so would need to happen in conjunction with eg Russia and China as well as others, but it offers the future possibility of more autonomy and less subjection to US imperialism.  Any sensible UK government should also support something other than the dollar as reserve currency, as Keynes tried to explain all those years ago.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

It seems pretty clear that this is Iran making a half hearted response to the US' provocation. They couldn't leave the attack without reply, but they don't want to provoke a war. They've put the ball in the US' court - do you really want to push this?

I'm inclined to agree  , we've seen similar before in Shayrat where a phone call ensured no accidental Russian causalities when the US bombed what soon became an almost empty airfield

but some reactions  last night  suggest that it wasn't quite  " that clear"  ....guess that's what happens when you  use "Mark Hughes " as your news source 

 

 

Reaction from Cheney's daughter etc suggest some Americans might try to pressure Trump to push the issue , but he's been given an easy way out , even he isn't that mad is he ??

[chrisp65]

The airliner looks to be and hopefully was a tragic freak coincidence.

It did take the U.S. about 8 years too admit it last time they shot down an Iranian airliner (Iran Air flight 655), not an incident quickly remembered this side of the fence strangely, so best not draw too many one sided conclusions yet.

The guy that gave the order to shoot down the passenger aircraft got a medal. Just to sort of give some slight nuance to the good guys / bad guys angle.

Hopefully this whole sorry episode fizzles out.

 

 

 

[Davkaus]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

The airliner looks to be and hopefully was a tragic freak coincidence.

It's one of those things you'd see in a movie and write it off as being outrageously contrived.

So a commercial jet with an impeccable safety record, just happens to crash due to technical failures within an hour or two of missiles flying about? Hmmm. Chinny reckon.

Quote

The guy that gave the order to shoot down the passenger aircraft got a medal. Just to sort of give some slight nuance to the good guys / bad guys angle.

War crimes are just for the losers, aren't they? Pretty much every living US president, general, and I'd wager most if not all living PMs could be prosecuted for war crimes.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Davkaus

[Awol]

7 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

 Chinny reckon.

 It's a good 25 years since I last heard that!

[tonyh29]

7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

The airliner looks to be and hopefully was a tragic freak coincidence.

It did take the U.S. about 8 years too admit it last time they shot down an Iranian airliner (Iran Air flight 655), not an incident quickly remembered this side of the fence strangely, so best not draw too many one sided conclusions yet.

The guy that gave the order to shoot down the passenger aircraft got a medal. Just to sort of give some slight nuance to the good guys / bad guys angle.

Hopefully this whole sorry episode fizzles out.

 

 

 

Reagan wrote expressing regret within days so I don't think your 8 years  figure is accurate , from the  documentary about the incident i watched one time  , i think it was 96 that the US paid some form of settlement , which would be around the 8 year mark you mention

his medal btw was for his tour of duty and the citation made no reference to the downing of the aircraft

[blandy]

49 minutes ago, peterms said:

Any sensible UK government should also support something other than the dollar as reserve currency,

There are multiple reserve currencies.. Sure the dollar is the most common or the dominant one, but there's nothing other than inertia to stop that changing, or to stop the Euro, the Yen or whatever being more widely or extensively used between parties, is there? - basically governments already do what you suggest, though ours admittedly seems to be going in the opposite direction.