Israel, Palestine and Iran

[sne]

so this is all a ploy by Lockheed Martin to put Boeing under once and for all and land them that next big US army contract for their F-35 fighter rather than the Boeing F-15 

Quote

Flight expert Jan Ohlsson is skeptical of the explanation that the plane crash in Iran was due to an engine failure.

"It is far too early for anyone to determine the cause of the accident two hours later," he says.

At six in the morning local time, a Ukrainian aircraft crashed shortly after it lifted from Tehran in Iran. On the plane were 167 passengers and nine crew members. All on board were killed.

According to the Ukrainian Embassy in Iran, which refers to initial information, the accident is due to an engine failure. That's what Reuters reports .

Iranian, state-owned media state the same thing.

Independent reports that the Ukrainian embassy in Iran then removed the initial information that the accident was due to a motor failure.

The embassy arrived on Wednesday morning with a new statement saying that the previous information that the plane had an engine failure was not official, Reuters writes.

However, flight expert Jan Ohlsson is skeptical - and thinks the quick explanation is suspicious.

- It is almost inconceivable that you can only quickly find one cause. That has never happened before, he says, and continues:

- It is far too early for anyone to be able to determine the cause of the accident two hours later. These are tasks that can possibly be visualized through the black boxes. Often it is the pilots' conversation that is important, but here they probably do not have so much on the way down. They have probably tried to save the situation.

"Opportunities to sabotage"

Jan Ohlsson says that the aircraft type, Boeing 737-800, is the most common in the world and that there has been no accident with a similar scenario. He also says that Ukraine International Airlines is considered to be a safe airline and that Iran's flight technicians are known to be exceptionally good.

- What is suspected is that the plane has been parked at Tehran Airport overnight. It came in already in the early evening. This fact opens up for ice formation and opportunities to sabotage the planet.

However, the flight expert points out the contradiction in Iran's sabotage of an aircraft that mainly has domestic passengers.

- In addition, Ukraine is on a fairly good business footing with Iran.

Jan Ohlsson draws parallels to the aircraft that was shot down by an air defense robot near the city of Donetsk in Ukraine 2014.

- Because the tone between the US and Iran is so tight, someone may have put this on more or less their own scale, as was the case with the Donetsk crash.

The black box would reveal if the crash was due to an engine failure, he says.

- Black boxes must be analyzed by a neutral authority in a neutral country. It should be shipped to Europe.

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/experten-sagar-forklaringen-efter-kraschen-hittar-pa/

Edited January 8, 2020 by sne

[chrisp65]

47 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Reagan wrote expressing regret within days so I don't think your 8 years  figure is accurate , from the  documentary about the incident i watched one time  , i think it was 96 that the US paid some form of settlement , which would be around the 8 year mark you mention

his medal btw was for his tour of duty and the citation made no reference to the downing of the aircraft

His citation specifically mentioned his time on the Vincennes.

They came up with any number of revisions of their story, it wasn’t them, it was in the wrong airspace, it was diving at them, it was giving out military aircraft signals. It was 8 years before they finally accepted the pilot and the airline had absolutely no blame, were legitimately in the correct place and flying away from the Vincennes, not diving at it aggressively.

But that’s kind of clouding the issue by disagreeing on the detail, they shot down a legit passenger aircraft in the correct airspace, they lied about it, 290 civilians died. It’s not a one way street of white hats versus black hats.

[peterms]

30 minutes ago, blandy said:

There are multiple reserve currencies.. Sure the dollar is the most common or the dominant one, but there's nothing other than inertia to stop that changing, or to stop the Euro, the Yen or whatever being more widely or extensively used between parties, is there? - basically governments already do what you suggest, though ours admittedly seems to be going in the opposite direction.

Yes, there are others, but the US is very conscious that its position as the dominant reserve currency allows it to wield massive influence, and it wants to protect that position.  Which is exactly why other countries should do more to develop alternatives if they wish not to be at the mercy of the whims of the US.

[Awol]

13 minutes ago, peterms said:

Yes, there are others, but the US is very conscious that its position as the dominant reserve currency allows it to wield massive influence, and it wants to protect that position.  Which is exactly why other countries should do more to develop alternatives if they wish not to be at the mercy of the whims of the US.

The key to this is oil being priced in USD. As long as Saudi holds the line on that the USD's position is secure because everyone needs it in their account.

Which explains a lot. 

[Davkaus]

Iran have taken down their statement about the cause of the crash and seem to be refusing to cooperate with Boeing.

Pretty clear at this point it was shot down, if there was any initial doubt.

[KentVillan]

4 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Iran have taken down their statement about the cause of the crash and seem to be refusing to cooperate with Boeing.

Pretty clear at this point it was shot down, if there was any initial doubt.

Does sound that way, but accidents do happen, especially during times of war when lighting, radar, comms etc may all be operating below normal levels.

I believe passenger planes used to land in Baghdad performing some kind of evasive twisting pattern to avoid being hit by rockets, so perhaps the pilot of this plane was doing something similarly out of the ordinary. No doubt this plane will be a source of inspiration for conspiracy theorists for many years.

[bannedfromHandV]

2 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Does sound that way, but accidents do happen, especially during times of war when lighting, radar, comms etc may all be operating below normal levels.

I believe passenger planes used to land in Baghdad performing some kind of evasive twisting pattern to avoid being hit by rockets, so perhaps the pilot of this plane was doing something similarly out of the ordinary. No doubt this plane will be a source of inspiration for conspiracy theorists for many years.

Hardly a conspiracy theory though is it?

[KentVillan]

2 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Hardly a conspiracy theory though is it?

Didn’t say it was.

[sne]

Not really that strange that Iran doesn't want to hand the black boxes to US army supplier Boeing is it?

They should be sent to some at least somewhat neutral agency in Europe or Asia.

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, sne said:

Not really that strange that Iran doesn't want to hand the black boxes to US army supplier Boeing is it?

They should be sent to some at least somewhat neutral agency in Europe or Asia.

Who would you suggest that Iran would view as neutral?

[sne]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Who would you suggest that Iran would view as neutral?

Not really for me to say

The expert on the subject interviewed by Swedish papers suggested sending it to some neutral country in Europe. Whatever that might be. My detail knowledge on the subject is non existent .

Having Boeing doing it is a bit like the US being the neutral part between Israel and Palestine.

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, sne said:

Not really for me to say

The expert on the subject interviewed by Swedish papers suggested sending it to some neutral country in Europe. Whatever that might be. My detail knowledge on the subject is non existent .

Having Boeing doing it is a bit like the US being the neutral part between Israel and Palestine.

FWIW, I’m not sure Boeing would risk doing anything dodgy with the data. The fact the world is watching and they are already on the mother of all naughty steps due to other recent crashes, I’d expect them to do it right.

The reputational risk would be catastrophic if significant serious others disputed their version of the findings.

[sne]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

FWIW, I’m not sure Boeing would risk doing anything dodgy with the data. The fact the world is watching and they are already on the mother of all naughty steps due to other recent crashes, I’d expect them to do it right.

The reputational risk would be catastrophic if significant serious others disputed their version of the findings.

True.

But on the other hand they will be desperate to find anything pointing to it not being their fault.

They are in a massive crisis and at the same time fighting with Lockheed Martin over a huge US airforce contract over the next fighter purchase worth billions of $.

If it's anything the do not need now it's yet another one of their planes dropping from the sky.

[KentVillan]

13 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Just ordered Proof of Conspiracy: How Trump's International Collusion Is Threatening American Democracy by Seth Abramson.

Going to give this a good read. The author has been Tweeting:

Anyway, think we're about to see what the US retaliation looks like. This is sickening.

Book arrived this morning (mental). Can’t say I recommend it from what I’ve read so far.

Abramson seems to get carried away with questionable sources and joins the dots a bit too often. No smoking guns really, but an interesting(ish) look at the power dynamics of the Middle East.

If anyone has any good recommendations for something a bit more scholarly, I’m all ears.

[Awol]

21 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Book arrived this morning (mental). Can’t say I recommend it from what I’ve read so far.

Abramson seems to get carried away with questionable sources and joins the dots a bit too often. No smoking guns really, but an interesting(ish) look at the power dynamics of the Middle East.

If anyone has any good recommendations for something a bit more scholarly, I’m all ears.

If you’re looking for a broad sweep of the region in a ‘how did we get here?’
type view, try “Notes on Century: Reflections of a Middle East Historian” (2013) by Bernard Lewis - sadly his last book, written as a memoir but really a tour de force of ME politics.

He was the best ever observer of the region writing in English, and gets the interplay of history, faith, culture and politics more than anyone I’ve ever read. 

Less than 15 bucks on Amazon. 

Sorry if that’s not what you meant and you were after something more Trump focused? If so I haven’t seen anything good on him, yet. 

[KentVillan]

14 minutes ago, Awol said:

If you’re looking for a broad sweep of the region in a ‘how did we get here?’
type view, try “Notes on Century: Reflections of a Middle East Historian” (2013) by Bernard Lewis - sadly his last book, written as a memoir but really a tour de force of ME politics.

He was the best ever observer of the region writing in English, and gets the interplay of history, faith, culture and politics more than anyone I’ve ever read. 

Less than 15 bucks on Amazon. 

Sorry if that’s not what you meant and you were after something more Trump focused? If so I haven’t seen anything good on him, yet. 

Thanks - I've run out of reactions, but this would have got a like.

Yes, I would be keen on something more focused on the current dynamics of MBS, Netanyahu, Trump, etc. but your recommendation does sound interesting.

[villakram]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

FWIW, I’m not sure Boeing would risk doing anything dodgy with the data. The fact the world is watching and they are already on the mother of all naughty steps due to other recent crashes, I’d expect them to do it right.

The reputational risk would be catastrophic if significant serious others disputed their version of the findings.

Given the recent MAXX revelations, and ISS rendezvous screw-up, their management gave little consideration to those issues until recently, and it's entirely unclear if the current purge/clean-up of senior management is serious or just a face saving exercise.

All the speculation is a little funny, especially considering that the Taiwan military was decapitated in a helicopter crash last week, but that's not a narrative that has same emotional pull, does it. That was in a black hawk, which traces back explicitly to Lockheed military arm or evil Chinese sabotage!!!

Edited January 8, 2020 by villakram

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, villakram said:

Given the recent MAXX revelations, their management gave little consideration to those issues until recently, and it's entirely unclear if the current purge/clean-up of senior management is serious or just a face saving exercise.

That was kind of my line of thought, that they’ve recently been really badly caught out with the MAXX so the whole world of experts is going to be trained on them so their ability to do anything slightly shadowy might be more limited and would most definitely be more risky than with MAXX.

Doubtless over time lots of data is going to come out that will hint or suggest at possible causes. We can see from flight 655 and from flight 17 that somehow tape emerges, be it a rocket launcher driving down a road, men in a field or audio of the people briefly celebrating before realising their cock up. If absolutely nobody has video or audio or data on something being fired at the jet, and Boeing say it was, then they are going to have a hard time convincing the world.

You have to say the timing of it, if it is a chance freak failure of kit or crew, is just spectacular.

Pure speculation, I wonder if given the surrounding circumstances, someone has **** up their safety checks and procedures because they were already spooked by the risk of what was going on around them. An accident, but with ‘the war’ as the backdrop. 

[Czechlad]

Numerous photos of the plane crash make it look like there are bullet holes littered on the engine. I mean it could be a weird occurrence, but it looks like the plane was shot at.

[chrisp65]

13 minutes ago, Czechlad said:

Numerous photos of the plane crash make it look like there are bullet holes littered on the engine. I mean it could be a weird occurrence, but it looks like the plane was shot at.

Perhaps that Lu Chao bloke has been throwing lucky coins in the engine again.