Israel, Palestine and Iran

[KenjiOgiwara]

7 hours ago, Davkaus said:

in other news, nobody is talking about the impeachment anymore. 

Exactly. 

Trump is an absolute **** and despicable person, but he's pretty **** good at manipulating media. 

I said as much when the trade wars started. Genius move. The bullmarket was always going to continie as there's no alternative in a low interest market. Interest rates get hiked, election starts and he makes a "deal". 

I suspect he will start new trade wars a few months before the election kicks off. Sell off in May is on for me. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by KenjiOgiwara

[OutByEaster?]

Threatening a nation that has seen the most devastating sanctions in history within the last 25 years with "sanctions like they've never known" will have a truly horrific effect on the psychology of Iraq. The sanctions that UN advisors described as genocidal in the 90's killed hundreds of thousands, devastated the economy and created a humanitarian catastrophe - to threaten Iraq in particular with a range of sanctions worse than those is just shocking. 

It's a really clear rebuke, it says "If you even think about this, we'll destroy you completely" and it's a blunt and unpleasant reminder to the parliament and people of Iraq that they remain an occupied territory with very little say in their own governance where their opinion differs from the opinion of the occupying force.  

It's difficult to see any way in which this situation ends well.

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, KentVillan said:

I don't think Iraq has formally asked America to remove all its troops.

Part of the Iraqi legislature has voted on this, but it sounds like this needs to pass few several more hoops to be ratified as an official govt policy. So for the time being, US troops are there legally.

I'm sure you're right, but are you expecting to Trump to shift position after it *has* been ratified as official government policy?

[chrisp65]

Wales’ Euro game is in Baku.

If this thing interrupts the Euro’s I’m going to properly kick off.

[Awol]

4 hours ago, KentVillan said:

I don't think Iraq has formally asked America to remove all its troops.

Part of the Iraqi legislature has voted on this, but it sounds like this needs to pass few several more hoops to be ratified as an official govt policy. So for the time being, US troops are there legally.

Exactly. Also turns out that because the vote was only advisory it was boycotted by the Sunni MPs and those Shia MPs who aren’t supporters of the Iranian aligned militias. 

It’s possible that when the binding vote takes place on the 11th it may not carry, but as you say the vote yesterday has no force in Iraqi law, just like an indicative vote in the UK HoC. 

That doesn’t mean the Shia proxy militias may not use the vote as a pretext to continue attacking US forces in the country, but they haven’t needed one up to now. 

[snowychap]

52 minutes ago, Awol said:

Exactly. Also turns out that because the vote was only advisory it was boycotted by the Sunni MPs and those Shia MPs who aren’t supporters of the Iranian aligned militias. 

It’s possible that when the binding vote takes place on the 11th it may not carry, but as you say the vote yesterday has no force in Iraqi law, just like an indicative vote in the UK HoC. 

That doesn’t mean the Shia proxy militias may not use the vote as a pretext to continue attacking US forces in the country, but they haven’t needed one up to now. 

Whilst that may be all correct, the reports that @HanoiVillan was referring to seem to have Trump discussing what happens *if* they are asked/told/forced to leave.

It's a very clear threat of punitive action if the country takes a course of action to ask or require another nation's troops (that are supposedly only there at the request of the Iraqis) to leave their territory.

Another tweet from the same correspondent:

If his reporting of it is correct then I think HV's point holds.

One country is threatening another that if they ask or force them to remove their troops that they won't go unless they pay them a substantial amount of money or if they do (have to go) then they'll deploy 'sanctions like they've never seen before'.

I don't think one could truly say in those circumstances (however 'binding votes' turn out) that Iraqi permission for US troops in Iraq is a purely voluntary matter.

[Awol]

17 minutes ago, snowychap said:

I don't think one could truly say in those circumstances (however 'binding votes' turn out) that Iraqi permission for US troops in Iraq is a purely voluntary matter.

 

If it does come to that then I agree completely, of course. My post was only addressing the here and now.

However much influence Pompeo and Pence are having over Trump regarding specifics it’s pretty clear there is no US policy, so by definition there can be no strategy. It’s just Trump, entirely reactive, caged in the White House and taking his queues from TV and social media. 

Clearly we’re in George III or Caligula territory, with the same sense of impending doom for the nation involved.

[peterms]

A thread about some off-the-record discussions the writer says they've had with US officials.

 

[Dr_Pangloss]

I'm shocked it has taken this long for Trump to do something like this.

[mjmooney]

20 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

Anecdotally of course but when I went there(Iran)  i was met with nothing but friendship , from people buying us tea on the train to an old lady saying. Why are you so bad at football when she found out I was english ( this was just after the Brazil World Cup), the young people we spoke to were optimistic that friendship with America wasn’t far away and they were looking forward to having sanctions lifted , even the death to America stuff in Tehran they said was just for show and nobody felt that way ... funny how quickly things change 

 

[mjmooney]

[Awol]

I think Peter and OBE in particular will appreciate this, but it’s a good read all round - anyone watching this thread is probably the right audience by default: 

 

[villakram]

On 04/01/2020 at 12:47, Awol said:

No problem. If you’re interested then I’d recommend starting with: Assaf Moghadam (2017) Nexus of Global Jihad: Understanding Cooperation Among Terrorist Actors. Columbia Uni Press. 

Chapter and verse on how these organisations interact with states and each other. 

If you’re still interested after that I’m happy to send you the reading list from my Terrorism MLitt course - two years old now but all still relevant, peer reviewed and serious scholarship. 

Edit: spoiler - you won’t believe how important Sudan was as a facilitator for international terrorism. 

Please do.

However, I would point out that your source is not exactly unbiased.

Also on an aside, the title is a little funny, e.g., see how US/France/Britain acted to have Libya destroyed, but of course they are *not* terrorists.

[villakram]

15 hours ago, Awol said:

Long and interesting read in the Washington Post suggesting strongly that Pompeo has been pushing this assassination for months (with support from Pence) but Trump always said no, until the rocket attacks in Kirkuk that killed the US contractor. They couldn’t get it through with Mattis at DoD but Pompeo is tight with Esper (West Point together) and they worked Trump together in Florida and finally got him to approve it. 

WaPo is normally pretty good.. 

Pompeo pretty much announced all this in Foreign Affairs a couple of years back. He is regime change 101.

[Davkaus]

 

 

Congress and the president having a pissing match on Twitter.

This is just bizarre.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Davkaus

[HanoiVillan]

Remember a few weeks ago, when there were quite widespread anti-government protests in Iran?

Looks like Trump has had his usual unifying effect:

 

[peterms]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Remember a few weeks ago, when there were quite widespread anti-government protests in Iran?

Looks like Trump has had his usual unifying effect:

 

 

Fake news.

That's actually stolen footage of the crowds at President Trump's inauguration.

[Brumstopdogs]

 

 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Brumstopdogs said:

 

 

0:17 Jeremy Corbyn, front left

[HanoiVillan]

I'm old enough to remember when Trump was demanding that Iraq pay for an expensive military facility before he would even contemplate withdrawing troops from the country:

Gosh, that must have been all of a bit less than 24 hours ago!