Awol Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 53 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Is there a chance that given its increase in domestic production and the control it now has over Venezuelan and Brazilian oil, alongside the existing committed partnerships with murdering madmen in the middle east, that the US has decided that it's in its own interest to simply let the rest of the region burn? Is this a "we don't need you anymore, enjoy the fires"? Probably not I suppose, but it makes as much sense as anything else given their current approach - maybe it's just a case of being so desperate to have a war with Iran that anything else is an expendable practicality. The US desperately wants out of wars in the ME and has done since Obama was elected in 2008. Iraq 2003-2011 was a chastening experience. They see their number one priority as great power competition with China, preventing the latter establishing military & economic dominance over the Indo-Pacific. Economically Europe will increasingly become a backwater in relative terms, with 90% of economic growth between now and 2050 coming in the Far East - from our perspective. Naturally they want to avoid China becoming more powerful than them and threatening their own power - International Relations 101. However, ISIS pulled them back in to the region in 2014 and a part of Washington’s foreign policy establishment has a pathological obsession with Iran stemming from 1979. This, combined with Russia’s increasing designs on the Middle East & ISIS’ continuing existence fixed them there, very much against Trump’s will. The US has quietly become the world’s largest oil producer, so in that sense you’re right that they don’t need the ME, but the rest of the global economy still relies on it, so they do have a strategic interest in avoiding a) the whole region burning down, b) free-flowing supplies of energy to the global economy, and c) maintaining their client states - Saudi, Gulfies, Egypt. On balance they (the establishment ‘blob’) don’t want a war with Iran, but if Tehran follows through on its threat to get the nuclear programme back on track, it’s sadly inevitable. If they ignored the nuclear programme then you’d see countries like Saudi, Egypt, Turkey and even UAE going nuclear too, then it really is goodnight Vienna. I don’t think there’s any master plan at work in Trump’s tiny mind, but if it can’t be deescalated we’re probably gonna see the first ever war caused by shitposting on twitter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 58 minutes ago, sne said: "perhaps in a disproportionate manner" I thought this was so **** retarded that it was fake. But it isn't fake. The President of a great nation is saying that he will instruct the military to act "...in a disproportionate manner". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said: I thought this was so **** retarded that it was fake. But it isn't fake. The President of a great nation is saying that he will instruct the military to act "...in a disproportionate manner". It's not even in the top 5 most outrageous things he's shitposted. He's a menace to the world, frankly,. and if Iran managed to take him out, it'd probably be for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chrisp65 Posted January 5, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 5, 2020 Apparently Iran have put an $80 Million bounty on his head, dead or alive. I mean, Melania’s got to be seriously weighing up the options here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted January 5, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Davkaus said: It's not even in the top 5 most outrageous things he's shitposted. He's a menace to the world, frankly,. and if Iran managed to take him out, it'd probably be for the best. You think? A foreign power blatantly assassinates the U.S. president? Guaranteed nuclear response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, mjmooney said: You think? A foreign power blatantly assassinates the U.S. president? Guaranteed nuclear response. If we all just look the other way and agree this Trump nonsense was a bad idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 in other news, nobody is talking about the impeachment anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 5, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2020 'mon cholesterol... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The Tory party is going to follow Trump into Hell then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Davkaus said: in other news, nobody is talking about the impeachment anymore. It's almost as if this was the plan all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chindie said: 'mon cholesterol... 'mon late night cocktail of Viagra, amphetamine, Diet Coke and Cool Ranch Doritos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post StefanAVFC Posted January 5, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Apparently Iran have put an $80 Million bounty on his head, dead or alive. I mean, Melania’s got to be seriously weighing up the options here. Worth less than Harry Maguire 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted January 5, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 5, 2020 33 minutes ago, Awol said: The US desperately wants out of wars in the ME Absolutely fooled me, to be fair to them. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted January 5, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2020 Pick the bones out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted January 5, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, Awol said: Holy crap. It seems to suggest Trump might have an ulterior motive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: It seems to suggest Trump might have an ulterior motive. While the Trump Tower Baku and the rest of Trump's property empire obviously stink, I don't really understand the connection with the Soleiman assassination, even if it was Iranian money linked with Soleiman going into the Baku project. Feels like a bit of a reach, based on some not particularly surprising coincidences. Baku is a weird place. Azerbaijan is a huge ally of the UK, US and Israel, extremely corrupt, and with a wealthy elite due to its oil and natural gas. So a natural place for an unscrupulous clearing in the woods like Trump to get involved in a real estate project. The Azeri people are spread across both the country of Azeribaijan and a region of north-west Iran which is also called Azerbaijan. Baku is just across the Caspian from the northern suburbs of Tehran. So a natural place for Iranian money laundering. So it is not massively surprising that Trump would get involved in Baku, and not that surprising that the money for a big project in Baku might have Iranian links. And if that Iranian link is a wealthy regime figure, they're going to be an "associate" of Soleimani by definition. But how does that explain Trump's motive for a very high profile, destabilising attack on Soleimani? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: It seems to suggest Trump might have an ulterior motive. Long and interesting read in the Washington Post suggesting strongly that Pompeo has been pushing this assassination for months (with support from Pence) but Trump always said no, until the rocket attacks in Kirkuk that killed the US contractor. They couldn’t get it through with Mattis at DoD but Pompeo is tight with Esper (West Point together) and they worked Trump together in Florida and finally got him to approve it. WaPo is normally pretty good.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 So, Iraq asks America to remove all its troops. Trump insists that this will lead to crippling sanctions. Since these troops are no longer welcome in the country, it's hard to see how they are not now an illegally occupying force, and a legitimate target for attack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 58 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: So, Iraq asks America to remove all its troops. Trump insists that this will lead to crippling sanctions. Since these troops are no longer welcome in the country, it's hard to see how they are not now an illegally occupying force, and a legitimate target for attack. I don't think Iraq has formally asked America to remove all its troops. Part of the Iraqi legislature has voted on this, but it sounds like this needs to pass few several more hoops to be ratified as an official govt policy. So for the time being, US troops are there legally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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