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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You do know Russia has elections don't you? It's just that Putin always wins, every time. 

I dunno, I remember him giving someone a go once, Medledev, wasnt it for 4 years, an then Putin put himself back in.

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2 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I dunno, I remember him giving someone a go once, Medledev, wasnt it for 4 years, an then Putin put himself back in.

They just switched roles as he couldnt legally stay on and Medvedev was a puppet

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3 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I dunno, I remember him giving someone a go once, Medledev, wasnt it for 4 years, an then Putin put himself back in.

That was just another sham to meet constitutional requirements. I think he's changed them now so he doesn't have to bother with that nonsense again. 

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2 hours ago, hippo said:

Does it though ?

If he attacks or threatens one of the smaller NATO countries - how confident are you that NATO would swiftly commit to a ground war,???

Well, this is the million dollar question isn't it. Several posters have given you the straightforward, simple answer - 'of course we would immediately commit to a ground war'.

And we all hope they are right! Because the entirety of the current geopolitical set-up of the world is balanced on that assumption. It has of course never been tested, and we had all better hope it never is. If it is, leaders will find themselves with the most incredibly weighty decision ever - do we risk the entirety of life on earth for the sovereignty of eg Estonia?

Like all 'would you push the button' questions, the answer if you want to be taken seriously by politicians and journalists is to look unblinkingly into the eyes of the person asking the question and say an emphatic 'yes' as if it's absurd to imagine you would need to think about it. We tend to prefer leaders who give sociopathic answers to questions. But when push came to shove - would they?

One thing I think hawks - not just from the UK and the US but other countries as well - ought to take more seriously is that nothing will devalue the currency of an Article 5 guarantee more than extending it to countries you have *proven* to Russia you will not defend. If Ukrainian sovereignty was something the west was definitely willing to risk nuclear armageddon over, we could have admitted Ukraine to NATO as an emergency measure before this invasion started. If we had done that, it would either have stopped the war before it started, or it would have led to a hot war between Russia and NATO. But 'we'/'the west' were not prepared to do that; NATO admission has to be unanimous, and many NATO members were clear that Ukraine would not be admitted (IMO rightly). Now I see eg figures in the Lithuanian government strongly lobbying for future Ukrainian admission, and I'm afraid in their situation I would be a lot less comradely and a lot more self-interested. If we extend an Article 5 guarantee to one country we have proven we won't go to war with Russia over, the natural question would or will become whether there are any other NATO members we would not *actually* go to war over, if push came to shove.

What I'm saying is this ambiguity is literally what keeps us safe; it is a terrible idea to end it.

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If Ukraine put up a really hard fight and Russia loses a lot of equipment and a lot of men, are they going to be in a position to invade a other country whilst also patrolling their own borders and policing the vast country of Ukraine with probable guerilla warfare breaking out all over the place. 

I know their army is massive but is it capable of being that stretched? 

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1 hour ago, bobzy said:

Why would anyone want to inflict this much pain on people?  Beyond me.  Just pure evil.

I’m surprised anybody is surprised, the whole of human history is like this.  Putin wasn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last.

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1 minute ago, sidcow said:

If Ukraine put up a really hard fight and Russia loses a lot of equipment and a lot of men, are they going to be in a position to invade a other country whilst also patrolling their own borders and policing the vast country of Ukraine with probable guerilla warfare breaking out all over the place. 

I know their army is massive but is it capable of being that stretched? 

It's a question whether Russia have actually won any territory yet in Ukraine, an actually kept it!

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2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

If Ukraine put up a really hard fight and Russia loses a lot of equipment and a lot of men, are they going to be in a position to invade a other country whilst also patrolling their own borders and policing the vast country of Ukraine with probable guerilla warfare breaking out all over the place. 

I know their army is massive but is it capable of being that stretched? 

I somehow doubt it, their investment in new equipment and tech is at least going to be seriously reduced. Bye bye new tank and fighter models. 

Afaik they don’t have enough of their SU35s already, and Ukraine is rumoured to have shot down at least one.

They’re simply not a superpower anymore, much to Putins dismay.

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1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

The Ukrainian president is calling for combat ready Europeans to join him in fighting Russia. I presume some Poles\Hungarians\Czechs etc will actually do this?

there are 150,000 Hungarians living in Ukraine , most of them  right near the Hungarian border .. in 2104 Orban made noises about that region becoming Hungarian  .. Although Orban so far seems to be siding with the EU , he's another one not to be trusted 

 

incidentally,  we have a friend  who works on that border crossing , they've been told to stop any males over the age of 18 from leaving the Ukraine  ..presumably so they can be conscripted to fight 

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13 minutes ago, turvontour said:

I cant get my head around, in 2022 Kiev, Ukraine; machine guns being handed out to the public to protect the city. The situation is terrifying and baffling in equal measure. Well no, more terrifying.

I went there in Sept 2014  not long after Yanukovych  lost his grip on power despite using force , there were basically holes in the ground where every man hole cover had been lifted up and used to make an impromptu piece of body armour , you could see bullet holes in buildings  and various memorials around the streets  ... I guess the Ukrainian people have  kinda learnt how to survive ..and now fight 

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22 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I’m surprised anybody is surprised, the whole of human history is like this.  Putin wasn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last.

We think we are somehow better than people of early 20th century or earlier ages.

We are the same. We just have faster planes and computers.

 

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