17/18 Promotion Charge

[Vive_La_Villa]

3 hours ago, KJT123 said:

Credit to @experimental361 on Twitter. 

This looks interesting but what does it mean?

[Tommo_b]

3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

This looks interesting but what does it mean?

I think it means the teams in the top left square are really crap and Burton might as well be relegated already.

[Zatman]

doesnt make sense and Burton are only there due to a one off game with Leeds. they also have more goals and conceded less than Bolton

[Stevo985]

11 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

This looks interesting but what does it mean?

It means we score quite a lot of goals and don't concede many (according to the graph)

[sne]

And our goals per game is 1.25,  same as Sheffield W and Middlesbrough .

Not 1.45 as the graph shows.

But it says expected goals so I don't know...

[Keyblade]

5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It means we score quite a lot of goals and don't concede many (according to the graph)

10 in 8 is hardly a lot (was 7 in 7 before yesterday's game).

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

10 in 8 is hardly a lot (was 7 in 7 before yesterday's game).

 

9 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It means we score quite a lot of goals and don't concede many (according to the graph)

 

[Keyblade]

Just now, Stevo985 said:

 

 

No I got that, I'm saying the graph is inaccurate. As @sne mentioned the numbers are off.

But then again I think it could be referring to expected attack and defence based on the squads?

[MrDuck]

When we were promoted in 1987, we had 9pts from the first 8 games. So we're better off at this stage than the last time we got promoted

[Mjvilla]

6 hours ago, Keyblade said:

No I got that, I'm saying the graph is inaccurate. As @sne mentioned the numbers are off.

But then again I think it could be referring to expected attack and defence based on the squads?

Expected goals is what we could/should've scored based on the chances and clear cut chances we create per game. So, I'd presume that the graph means, based on the chances we create and give away, we should be doing better than we are?

[Stevo985]

9 hours ago, Keyblade said:

No I got that, I'm saying the graph is inaccurate. As @sne mentioned the numbers are off.

But then again I think it could be referring to expected attack and defence based on the squads?

I didn't see that it was "expected" goals. Apologies.

[HanoiVillan]

Further to @Mjvilla, 'expected goals' is a statistic that measures the quality of chances a team is creating. A player blazing a shot just over the bar from 35 yards has the same end result as someone heading a well-worked move just over inside the six-yard box, but 'expected goals' works on the principle that a team creating more of the latter type of chances will score more over a sufficiently lengthy period. 

What our place on that graph shows is that we have created enough high-quality chances from which you would expect us to score, that our actual goal return is statistically below-average. When we 'revert to the mean', we will score more. 

[Mjvilla]

45 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Further to @Mjvilla, 'expected goals' is a statistic that measures the quality of chances a team is creating. A player blazing a shot just over the bar from 35 yards has the same end result as someone heading a well-worked move just over inside the six-yard box, but 'expected goals' works on the principle that a team creating more of the latter type of chances will score more over a sufficiently lengthy period. 

What our place on that graph shows is that we have created enough high-quality chances from which you would expect us to score, that our actual goal return is statistically below-average. When we 'revert to the mean', we will score more. 

Exactly what I wanted to say but put far more intelligently and eloquently!

[Guest av1]

On 06/09/2017 at 22:43, Zatman said:

It actually seems quite a realistic prediction table

I'd say optimistic. 

[lapal_fan]

The way I see it, is this;

IF we score more goals than the team we're playing, we're likely to win that game.

This will enable us to get all of the points available for that game (or 100%, if you will), this gives us a W in the columns you see on newspapers and that.

IF we keep getting more goals and W's than everyone else, I think it stands to reasons that it is an acceptable form of attacking and defending.

IF we don't let as many goals in, as we score - I think Bruce and Sam Johnstone will be a good team and Villa will go up (Northwards) on the Football League Table (this is good for us).

That said, IF the opponents score more than we do, and we get an L in the newspaper columns, then I shall start to become a bit disgruntled and weary of our promotion shove to the top of the leagues (also known as the APEX league). 

Frankly, D's in the column would hurt too. That's when we score either 1, 0 or a bunch of goals - and the opponents score the same amount.  The chances of that happening are basically zero though (like that Andre green number on a roulette wheel).

So we need to look up, down and all around really because the ball won't just stay in 1 place - trust me.  I've seen over 30 goals scored and have accidentally put it in my own net 3 times in my 30 rotations around the Sun (the warm thing, not the newspaper HAHA). 

I give us odds of 1 in 975,084 of going up - so who's with me!?   

[TRO]

On 9/16/2017 at 22:44, jackbauer24 said:

When we can win 3 or 4 games in a row I'll believe a promotion charge is more than wishful thinking. But we had a similar result against Norwich then back to mediocrity. One game isn't going to make a great difference - getting slightly bored of hearing "is this the result that will kick start our season..."

Well....none of us know.

but us who think that the paper reputations will gel and finally manifest itself in to a team to be reckoned with....a start has to happen somewhere/sometime......or not at all.

Only forthcoming games will tell us if indeed he has to go or all along the hidden work at BMH is coming to fruition.

64 million dollar question.

[TRO]

4 hours ago, lapal_fan said:

The way I see it, is this;

IF we score more goals than the team we're playing, we're likely to win that game.

This will enable us to get all of the points available for that game (or 100%, if you will), this gives us a W in the columns you see on newspapers and that.

IF we keep getting more goals and W's than everyone else, I think it stands to reasons that it is an acceptable form of attacking and defending.

IF we don't let as many goals in, as we score - I think Bruce and Sam Johnstone will be a good team and Villa will go up (Northwards) on the Football League Table (this is good for us).

That said, IF the opponents score more than we do, and we get an L in the newspaper columns, then I shall start to become a bit disgruntled and weary of our promotion shove to the top of the leagues (also known as the APEX league). 

Frankly, D's in the column would hurt too. That's when we score either 1, 0 or a bunch of goals - and the opponents score the same amount.  The chances of that happening are basically zero though (like that Andre green number on a roulette wheel).

So we need to look up, down and all around really because the ball won't just stay in 1 place - trust me.  I've seen over 30 goals scored and have accidentally put it in my own net 3 times in my 30 rotations around the Sun (the warm thing, not the newspaper HAHA). 

I give us odds of 1 in 975,084 of going up - so who's with me!?   

I think you are the REAL Grasshopper, oh wise one.

what odds would you give of a new manager coming in a getting us promotion......or of Steve Bruce being poached by Blues.

as he hasn't got to move pubs, i mean houses.

Edited September 18, 2017 by TRO

[DCJonah]

On 18/09/2017 at 08:41, HanoiVillan said:

Further to @Mjvilla, 'expected goals' is a statistic that measures the quality of chances a team is creating. A player blazing a shot just over the bar from 35 yards has the same end result as someone heading a well-worked move just over inside the six-yard box, but 'expected goals' works on the principle that a team creating more of the latter type of chances will score more over a sufficiently lengthy period. 

What our place on that graph shows is that we have created enough high-quality chances from which you would expect us to score, that our actual goal return is statistically below-average. When we 'revert to the mean', we will score more. 

The Boro game and Hogan in a few games are some examples of this. 

Hopefully with kodjia, Davis, Adomah and Snodgrass we will become more clinical. 

[TRO]

14 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

The Boro game and Hogan in a few games are some examples of this. 

Hopefully with kodjia, Davis, Adomah and Snodgrass we will become more clinical. 

I think that is highly likely if they can maintain their form.

Its is starting to look a balanced lineup for me.

[Demitri_C]

Well forest will twll of ww are gelling as a side or if barnsley was a one off.

Forest are a decent side alot better than Barnsley so if we can win this then ill start to believe we are shwoing signs of turning a corner.