17/18 Promotion Charge

[One For The Road]

9 minutes ago, terrytini said:

I will clarify, seeing as you asked so nicely....

Skill is indeed involved, but all participants have that.

It isn’t, indeed, a true lottery which as you wisely observe would mean all outcomes were happening equally.

But it is “ a lottery” in the commonly used vernacular, in as much as 3rd only goes up 36% of the time, 4th and 6th 18%, And 5th 28%

So - approximately - 3rd only goes up just over 1 year in 3, 4th and 6th one year in three, and 5th just over one year in three.

Were it purely on position, and if position equalled superiority of ability, it’d be reasonable to expect that ratio for third and fourth  to be higher.....hope that makes sense.

In addition, away from the Stats, it’s “ a lottery” in as much as there have been many many games where dominant sides don’t go through ( and by definition, vice versa). Similar to any Cup competition where anything can happen over 90 minutes.

So, yeah, in my view it’s a lottery.

 

Fair enough. We shall agree to disagree and move on. I just don't see it as a lottery at all. The team who holds their nerve whilst performing the best will usually prevail.

[terrytini]

8 minutes ago, One For The Road said:

Fair enough. We shall agree to disagree and move on. I just don't see it as a lottery at all. The team who holds their nerve whilst performing the best will usually prevail.

Indeed well it’s opinions.

You can hope we play well and hold our nerve, ill hope we are lucky.

Between us well have it covered 

[One For The Road]

31 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Indeed well it’s opinions.

You can hope we play well and hold our nerve, ill hope we are lucky.

Between us well have it covered 

Well that would certainly do it!

[omariqy]

Technically we could draw every game and go up.

[Stevo985]

16 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Technically we could draw every game and go up.

McLeish mode engaged!

[mikeyp102]

So if it’s too be the playoffs, does anyone know if the semi final would come under the season ticket or would we have to purchase a ticket?

[Nigel]

8 minutes ago, mikeyp102 said:

So if it’s too be the playoffs, does anyone know if the semi final would come under the season ticket or would we have to purchase a ticket?

its extra

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

4 hours ago, omariqy said:

Technically we could draw every game and go up.

How does that actually work?

Penalties?

Or some other sort of rule?

[Dante_Lockhart]

If we get promoted this year via the playoffs I'll donate £50 to VT.

 

I want it to happen, but as everyone knows, betting makes everything more exciting.

[Eastie]

I notice the pfa team of the season for the championship has no villa players at all - thought we might have had one or two in it . 

3 from wolves , 3 from Fulham , 1 from Cardiff, Norwich, derby, Bristol city, and sheff Utd .

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/696762/PFA-Championship-team-of-the-year-leaked-BBC-Sport-Wolves-Fulham-sportgalleries

Edited April 18, 2018 by Eastie

[omariqy]

1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

How does that actually work?

Penalties?

Or some other sort of rule?

Yup penalties. 

[dn1982]

3 hours ago, mikeyp102 said:

So if it’s too be the playoffs, does anyone know if the semi final would come under the season ticket or would we have to purchase a ticket?

It’s undecided as yet. I asked the Villa the other day but I think it’ll be free and if the Dr has any sense he’ll make it cheap so it’s rammed and has an electric atmosphere. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

There is never that much of a gap between 3rd and 6th in points or quality. 

Its anybodys. 

[TRO]

On 4/17/2018 at 21:14, terrytini said:

I will clarify, seeing as you asked so nicely....

Skill is indeed involved, but all participants have that.

It isn’t, indeed, a true lottery which as you wisely observe would mean all outcomes were happening equally.

But it is “ a lottery” in the commonly used vernacular, in as much as 3rd only goes up 36% of the time, 4th and 6th 18%, And 5th 28%

So - approximately - 3rd only goes up just over 1 year in 3, 4th and 6th one year in three, and 5th just over one year in three.

Were it purely on position, and if position equalled superiority of ability, it’d be reasonable to expect that ratio for third and fourth  to be higher.....hope that makes sense.

In addition, away from the Stats, it’s “ a lottery” in as much as there have been many many games where dominant sides don’t go through ( and by definition, vice versa). Similar to any Cup competition where anything can happen over 90 minutes.

So, yeah, in my view it’s a lottery.

 

I would prefer to call it "unpredictable"

[TRO]

8 hours ago, Eastie said:

I notice the pfa team of the season for the championship has no villa players at all - thought we might have had one or two in it . 

3 from wolves , 3 from Fulham , 1 from Cardiff, Norwich, derby, Bristol city, and sheff Utd .

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/696762/PFA-Championship-team-of-the-year-leaked-BBC-Sport-Wolves-Fulham-sportgalleries

Yeah! I've just made reference to it on the steve bruce thread, rightly or wrongly.

I think our arguably 3 best players out for long periods have not helped.

but it does raise the question imo of how good the team really is....or is more importantly expected to be.

 

[TRO]

I just hope we are able to have our players focus on promotion during the play offs and not have one eye on the exit door......like the judas's did in that last Wembley final.

speculation is bound to surface on our players......but they must be comitted to us for that final run-in, for us to have a chance.

 

Edited April 18, 2018 by TRO

[Danwichmann]

13 hours ago, dn1982 said:

It’s undecided as yet. I asked the Villa the other day but I think it’ll be free and if the Dr has any sense he’ll make it cheap so it’s rammed and has an electric atmosphere. 

You would hope it would be rammed with an electric atmosphere whether it's cheap or not, but agree anyway as we need to make sure we have every possible advantage.

[John]

8 hours ago, TRO said:

Yeah! I've just made reference to it on the steve bruce thread, rightly or wrongly.

I think our arguably 3 best players out for long periods have not helped.

but it does raise the question imo of how good the team really is....or is more importantly expected to be.

 

Or of how good we are perceived to be by oopponents? To quote an oft used statement by Millwall "no-one likes us and we don't care."

[terrytini]

I look at it from the point of view “ who would I not want to lose to a competitor” and I’d say Terry, Chester, Snodders, Jack, and Kodja.

I do think the next best 8 or 9 are as largely as good as what I’ve seen elsewhere, but not necessarily better than.

The huge figure, for character alone but with such reading of the game and cool head,  ( and passing ability for a CB) has been Terry. We look so diminished even during a warm up without him, I’m pretty staggered by what a massive character he has come across as. Very rare I’m envious of other Clubs but I’m envious of the Chelsea fans who were able to watch that guy every week.

The contrast with when we bought Richards and Lescott for the same reasons is enough to make you weep !

Edited April 19, 2018 by terrytini

[alreadyexists]

1 hour ago, terrytini said:

I look at it from the point of view “ who would I not want to lose to a competitor” and I’d say Terry, Chester, Snodders, Jack, and Kodja.

I do think the next best 8 or 9 are as largely as good as what I’ve seen elsewhere, but not necessarily better than.

The huge figure, for character alone but with such reading of the game and cool head,  ( and passing ability for a CB) has been Terry. We look so diminished even during a warm up without him, I’m pretty staggered by what a massive character he has come across as. Very rare I’m envious of other Clubs but I’m envious of the Chelsea fans who were able to watch that guy every week.

The contrast with when we bought Richards and Lescott for the same reasons is enough to make you weep !

I think I’d add Adomah in to that number, I know he’s inconsistent but when he’s on he’s great and he’s scored and assisted some vital goals for us this year. I’d hate us to play against him.