Keinan Davis

[KentVillan]

3 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

Of course you can. Hourihane can probably get 5-10 goals this season. As well as Grealish, as well as McGinn, as well as El Ghazi. Luiz even have 2 goals already.

I think we are very likely to stay up even if we had a 5 goal a season striker.

Looking at the table last season, you need about 45 goals to stay up without it being pant shittingly close.

5-10 goals = 7.5 goals

So if you think we're getting that from Hourihane (who isn't a regular starter!) + Grealish + McGinn + El Ghazi, that only gives us 30 goals.

We need another 15 goals from somewhere, and that's just to scrape into 16th place with a terrible points total. Where are all these goals coming from?

More realistically, we should be targeting something like 55 goals, which is one less than Bournemouth managed last year. You are not going to do that without some serious goalscoring from your front 3, and that includes the striker.

You're just way off on this, logically, mathematically, tactically... everything. You're wrong wrong wrong.

[villalad21]

4 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Looking at the table last season, you need about 45 goals to stay up without it being pant shittingly close.

5-10 goals = 7.5 goals

So if you think we're getting that from Hourihane (who isn't a regular starter!) + Grealish + McGinn + El Ghazi, that only gives us 30 goals.

We need another 15 goals from somewhere, and that's just to scrape into 16th place with a terrible points total. Where are all these goals coming from?

More realistically, we should be targeting something like 55 goals, which is one less than Bournemouth managed last year. You are not going to do that without some serious goalscoring from your front 3, and that includes the striker.

You're just way off on this, logically, mathematically, tactically... everything. You're wrong wrong wrong.

That depends how many goals you concede.

You don't need 45+ goals in order to stay up unless your defense is absolutely dog****

But our defense is looking very poor at the moment so you might be right. But i can' see Wesley getting anywhere near 15 goals.

Edited November 1, 2019 by villalad21

[useless]

Our defence isn't actually that bad relative to most other teams, it's considerably better than all of the current bottom three and whilst we've conceded sixteen, most teams around us have conceded between thirteen and sixteen as well.

[KentVillan]

1 hour ago, villalad21 said:

That depends how many goals you concede.

You don't need 45+ goals in order to stay up unless your defense is absolutely dog****

But our defense is looking very poor at the moment so you might be right. But i can' see Wesley getting anywhere near 15 goals.

This is getting boring now, but 45 goals in 38 matches is a bare minimum, even with a decent defence. Just try actually looking at the league table from previous seasons to see what I mean.

Teams scoring less than 45 goals last season: Newcastle, Brighton, Cardiff, Fulham, Huddersfield. 

Wesley has 4 goals in 10 matches. 4 / 10 * 38 = 15.2. He's bang on the rate for a 15-goal season. Why can't you see it happening?

[villalad21]

17 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Why can't you see it happening?

We don't play against Norwich every week.

[KentVillan]

12 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

We don't play against Norwich every week.

We have loads of winnable fixtures to look forward to:

• Norwich H
• Everton A
• Newcastle H / A
• Southampton H / A
• Watford H / A
• Sheff Utd H / A
• Palace H
• Brighton A
• Wolves H / A
• Bournemouth A

Can easily see Wesley getting 10 more goals from those games alone. And even some of the big teams are leaking goals at the moment (Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs).

[terrytini]

2 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Looking at the table last season, you need about 45 goals to stay up without it being pant shittingly close.

5-10 goals = 7.5 goals

So if you think we're getting that from Hourihane (who isn't a regular starter!) + Grealish + McGinn + El Ghazi, that only gives us 30 goals.

We need another 15 goals from somewhere, and that's just to scrape into 16th place with a terrible points total. Where are all these goals coming from?

More realistically, we should be targeting something like 55 goals, which is one less than Bournemouth managed last year. You are not going to do that without some serious goalscoring from your front 3, and that includes the striker.

You're just way off on this, logically, mathematically, tactically... everything. You're wrong wrong wrong.

Except he isn’t “wrong wrong wrong”.

Take Positions 12-17 ( many would expect and hope for us to be in one of those) over the last 5 years.

Goals Scored

1*56

1*51

1*50

3*48

1*46

5*45

2*44

2*42

1*41

3*40

2*39

1*38

1*37

1*35

2*34

2*31

1*28

Mean = 41, Mode = 45, Median = 42.................40 would be perfectly reasonable total..........furthermore, a reasonable spread of goals is around 45% from forwards (2 players, not lone striker), 40% from midfield, 10 % from defence and 5% Own goals.

As such 17 (from striker plus One) or 10 and one midfielder getting 7 ( Hourihane in the example used) if you play lone striker,  16 from midfield ( 4 each) 5 from defence, couple of own goals.

[terrytini]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

This is getting boring now, but 45 goals in 38 matches is a bare minimum, even with a decent defence. Just try actually looking at the league table from previous seasons to see what I mean.

Teams scoring less than 45 goals last season: Newcastle, Brighton, Cardiff, Fulham, Huddersfield. 

Wesley has 4 goals in 10 matches. 4 / 10 * 38 = 15.2. He's bang on the rate for a 15-goal season. Why can't you see it happening?

I disagree, see above post.

edit - except I do agree with some ! See below post lol

Edited November 1, 2019 by terrytini
Agreeing etc

[terrytini]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

 

Wesley has 4 goals in 10 matches. 4 / 10 * 38 = 15.2. He's bang on the rate for a 15-goal season. Why can't you see it happening?

I DO agree with this bit !!! 
Sorry it’s getting confusing who is saying what for an old duffer like me .....completely agree Wesley is well on track.

[KentVillan]

5 hours ago, terrytini said:

Except he isn’t “wrong wrong wrong”.

Take Positions 12-17 ( many would expect and hope for us to be in one of those) over the last 5 years.

Goals Scored

1*56

1*51

1*50

3*48

1*46

5*45

2*44

2*42

1*41

3*40

2*39

1*38

1*37

1*35

2*34

2*31

1*28

Mean = 41, Mode = 45, Median = 42.................40 would be perfectly reasonable total..........furthermore, a reasonable spread of goals is around 45% from forwards (2 players, not lone striker), 40% from midfield, 10 % from defence and 5% Own goals.

As such 17 (from striker plus One) or 10 and one midfielder getting 7 ( Hourihane in the example used) if you play lone striker,  16 from midfield ( 4 each) 5 from defence, couple of own goals.

I think we actually agree on this more than your post suggests.

On your stats, my point was that while yes 40 is sometimes enough to stay up, a lot of those lower totals are for 17th place teams that cut it very fine (e.g. Brighton last season).

Our aim should be to do better than that, and I'm sure that requires our centre forward to tuck away something like 15 goals.

There's just this mad myth going around at the moment that modern tactics don't require your centre forward to score goals. It's just not true. Even with a good link-up striker / False 9, you still definitely need him to contribute double figures. I think Wesley gives you double figures, and Davis doesn't.

[Spoony]

[Dr_Pangloss]

20 hours ago, KentVillan said:

I think you're stuck in cloud cuckoo land.

There are some elite teams like Liverpool (Mane - Firmino - Salah) or the old Madrid team (C. Ronaldo - Benzema - Bale) who can get away with a relatively low-scoring centre forward, and rely mainly on the inside forwards for goals.

Even in those teams, the striker is getting around 15 goals. And he's getting support on both sides from some of the most prolific inside forwards of all time. I'm not sure El Ghazi, Trezeguet and Jota are even among the best players in our own squad.

I also can't believe you've used the example of Man City, when their top scorer last season was Aguero!? How does City show that we don't need goals at centre forward?

You're absolutely right that these front-3 systems are more fluid, and the inside forwards take on more of the load, but you're 100% wrong that the striker doesn't need to contribute goals in that system. Your own examples disprove your argument.

We will not stay up with our main striker only contributing 5 goals. That isn't a 90s view of football, it's the way the game is still played.

Yep, it's really the dumbest argument that I've ever seen advanced on this forum.

[cheltenham_villa]

On 01/11/2019 at 14:39, KentVillan said:

Looking at the table last season, you need about 45 goals to stay up without it being pant shittingly close.

5-10 goals = 7.5 goals

So if you think we're getting that from Hourihane (who isn't a regular starter!) + Grealish + McGinn + El Ghazi, that only gives us 30 goals.

We need another 15 goals from somewhere, and that's just to scrape into 16th place with a terrible points total. Where are all these goals coming from?

More realistically, we should be targeting something like 55 goals, which is one less than Bournemouth managed last year. You are not going to do that without some serious goalscoring from your front 3, and that includes the striker.

You're just way off on this, logically, mathematically, tactically... everything. You're wrong wrong wrong.

Aren't we the 4th or 5th highest scorers though? Given we dont have this serious firepower right now, something seems to be working.

[KentVillan]

On 03/11/2019 at 09:52, cheltenham_villa said:

Aren't we the 4th or 5th highest scorers though? Given we dont have this serious firepower right now, something seems to be working.

I wasn't criticising anything about the current setup. I was defending the selection of Wesley over Davis.

We're =6th highest scorers with 16. Wesley has a quarter of those. My point has been slightly lost in the (very long and tedious) thread, but villalad's original argument was that we can afford to play Keinan Davis (who cannot finish) because our striker doesn't need to score goals. My point is that, yes, we will get goals across the park, but we still need a striker who can chip in with 10-15 goals (and I think Wesley is that player).

[Delphinho123]

I’m a big Davis fan but this is just getting ridiculous now. He’s never going to make it as a footballer if every time the wind blows he’s out for 12 months. 

Where is he? We’d be a better team with him in the side. 

Frustrating.

[MaVilla]

49 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

I’m a big Davis fan but this is just getting ridiculous now. He’s never going to make it as a footballer if every time the wind blows he’s out for 12 months. 

Where is he? We’d be a better team with him in the side. 

Frustrating.

He starts running this week apparently, so a couple of weeks off making the bench probably?

[KenjiOgiwara]

On 01/11/2019 at 17:11, KentVillan said:

Wesley has 4 goals in 10 matches. 4 / 10 * 38 = 15.2. He's bang on the rate for a 15-goal season. Why can't you see it happening?

I think he might get 10-12 depending plays every match. 

The Norwich match still skewer (not sure if that's the right word), the goalscoring stats when it comes to Wes. 

Thing is, I am not that worried by the lack of goals from a lone striker as I am worried by poor play. It's an ungrateful hard job going alone against some of the best centrebacks in the world every weekend. But however fundamentals like winning headers, having shots, taking on defenders, bringing the midfield up the pitch, getting free kicks and what not is still largely lacking. His work rate has improved and that is great. He's also had some ok link-up play albeit with shoddy passing, but if you are to be our striker in the PL, you simply must offer more. We paid £22 million for him and he doesn't look any better than Keinan Davis, that's ultimately it. I wouldn't even offer £5 million for Wes. 

Edited December 2, 2019 by KenjiOgiwara

[Delphinho123]

I’m still convinced Davis is a much better player than Wesley. 

Davis probably isn’t the answer but he has shown some excellent qualities. He can head, he can take a man on and he can hold the ball up well. He also bullies defenders. Wesley just controls the ball once or twice a game and gives it to the fullbacks. He offers nothing else really.

I really cannot wait for a team without a Wesley in it as I’m convinced we have a really decent side that could challenge the top 8 with a better striker. 

Edited December 2, 2019 by Delphinho123

[Dave-R]

2 hours ago, MaVilla said:

He starts running this week apparently, so a couple of weeks off making the bench probably?

Some players are on a merry go round of injurys, recovery, playing, then round around the merry go round they go again, I see Davis having this problem.

I think we need to replace kodjia, Davis and Hogan and yeah Lansbury, with better quality, our front firing line really is just Wesley.

[sir_gary_cahill]

I don’t think Wesley should be written off like some seem to have on here, he’s shown the potential he has to me already. He’s just had a dip the past few games, every striker goes through it, he’ll bounce back. Some of his link up play is a joy to watch, the way he drops deep, he has a bit or a swagger about him I think. He just needs a goal that is all