bickster Posted May 18, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 18, 2022 54 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Tiverton could be a Lib Dem target I'm not saying it's impossible but it's highly improbable, even if the second placed Labour vote completely collapsed. However, this becomes interesting if Parish himself stands as he's threatened to do I do agree that although Labour came second they stand absolutely no chance of winning and the Tory vote collapsing will most likely benefit the LibDems but that Tory Majority is HUGE Even prior to 2015 when the LibDem vote collapsed (for their Tory Collaboration) and they were the real opposition to the Tories in the South West, they still didn't win this one. They came within 2k the first time the seat was contested in 1997 but since then, not even close. By-elections can be strange beasts as we all know but the Tories have never got less than 41% of the vote (1997) and increased their share every election until the last one, where it dropped by 1% but was still over 60% If the LibDems do win it, the Tory Party will collectively shit itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, bickster said: I'm not saying it's impossible but it's highly improbable, even if the second placed Labour vote completely collapsed. However, this becomes interesting if Parish himself stands as he's threatened to do I do agree that although Labour came second they stand absolutely no chance of winning and the Tory vote collapsing will most likely benefit the LibDems but that Tory Majority is HUGE Even prior to 2015 when the LibDem vote collapsed (for their Tory Collaboration) and they were the real opposition to the Tories in the South West, they still didn't win this one. They came within 2k the first time the seat was contested in 1997 but since then, not even close. By-elections can be strange beasts as we all know but the Tories have never got less than 41% of the vote (1997) and increased their share every election until the last one, where it dropped by 1% but was still over 60% If the LibDems do win it, the Tory Party will collectively shit itself Last Thursday's Times Red Box podcast is worth a listen on this subject. A targeted focus group of six Tory voters from 2019, all from the constituency. All six said they were voting Lib Dem, four of the six said they would prefer Starmer to be PM over Johnson. It's definitely worth 20 minutes. Obviously betting odds are based on money moving, not probability, but Lib Dems are currently 1/2 to win, the Tories 9/4. Incidentally, the bit I've put in bold, exactly the same would have been said a month before North Shropshire as well, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 I presume unofficially Labour are to go all out for Wakefield and Lib Dems in Tiverton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 18, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 18, 2022 43 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Last Thursday's Times Red Box podcast is worth a listen on this subject. A targeted focus group of six Tory voters from 2019, all from the constituency. All six said they were voting Lib Dem, four of the six said they would prefer Starmer to be PM over Johnson. It's definitely worth 20 minutes. Obviously betting odds are based on money moving, not probability, but Lib Dems are currently 1/2 to win, the Tories 9/4. Incidentally, the bit I've put in bold, exactly the same would have been said a month before North Shropshire as well, no? Having looked at it, North Shropshire was actually more unlikely as Labour and the Libdems traditionally traded 2nd and 3rd place before the LibDem vote collapse of 2015 whereas in Tiverton the LibDems are the "traditional" opposition party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Oh dear. What’s that sound? Sounds like a barrel being scraped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 18, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 18, 2022 Did anyone ever get prosecuted for not wearing a mask? I suspect the answer is a resounding NO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 51 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Oh dear. Seems the Scum have removed this already, the facts not quite as they represented perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 minute ago, bickster said: Did anyone ever get prosecuted for not wearing a mask? I suspect the answer is a resounding NO Some will say temporarily not wearing a mask whilst doing your job is just as bad as holding several parties in a government office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Davkaus said: Seems the Scum have removed this already, the facts not quite as they represented perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Davkaus Posted May 18, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Genie said: Some will say temporarily not wearing a mask whilst doing your job is just as bad as holding several parties in a government office. What nobody seems to be talking about on the back of another tory sexual offence scandal is that Sir Kier reportedly had sex in between 2002 and 2007. #AllTheSame 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Shameless, honestly. When even Tory whips think something is inappropriate, then wow. Edited May 18, 2022 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Shameless, honestly. When even Tory whips think something is inappropriate, then wow. Although he does indeed have the eyes of a rapist, he is long past his 50s. Michael can stay at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Shameless, honestly. To be fair, being a Tory that hasn't been caught sexually assaulting someone yet, is something of a badge of honour these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboyangel Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, Dodgyknees said: What’s that sound? Sounds like a barrel being scraped. Absolutel cries of desperation from the the Tory Party. they are mudslingers with no shame or realisation of what they’ve done themselves. Talk about a lack of self awareness. I can recall numerous photos of BJ meeting others in the height of covid and he’d be the only one not wearing a mask. sitting next to Attenborough and several hospital visits spring to mind! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted May 18, 2022 I watched Midsommar the other day. Tiny spoiler, but there's a very violent bit when a man gets his face and head caved in by a massive hammer. Over and over again. Just saw Fabricant's face and thought of that scene. Weird. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: I watched Midsommar the other day. Tiny spoiler, but there's a very violent bit when a man gets his face and head caved in by a massive hammer. Over and over again. Just saw Fabricant's face and thought of that scene. Weird. Harsh, harsh but fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 That's probably the least objectionable tweet I've ever seen from Fabricant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MessiWillSignForVilla Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 49 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Seems the Scum have removed this already, the facts not quite as they represented perhaps? It seems that the issue is that there was also a camera crew there and this bombshell "exclusive" was on Channel 4 News nearly 2 years ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 18, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 18, 2022 Whilst we're on the subject of Tory criminality... this story broke last week in New York The whole thread is worth a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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