Grasshopper Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: We have a shit squad as well, i admire your positivity but no way are we staying up. These guys are losers, they dont have the fight in them as shite as the other 4 yes but Pts count more than "the Squad" We need points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 2 minutes ago, Grasshopper said: as shite as the other 4 yes but Pts count more than "the Squad" We need points Yes and we cant win to save our lives. We cant even win one game yet back to back (which we will need to do) if we have any hopes of staying up. Not gonna happen unless we spend a absolute fortune in january and Lerner won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, dudevillaisnice said: I think it's incredible the gap is still only five points. That is truly incredible considering we have only won one game this season and we are now 13 games into the season. THIS unbelievable. And that's the reason why I think, a bit of form, a bit of luck, get some sort of momentum going and we can crawl back to level points team by team and take over 3 of them 1 by 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 By the way, did I mention that I'm a stubborn Old Fart who doesn't know what "giving up" means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Still got a few weeks to tinker and work out his best way forward for me. 19th December away to Newcastle is where we need to have found some way of being competitive. Said when he joined we'll be bottom at Xmas with 10 points or less and I was prepared for it. There are then 11 games until the end of February in which we should be looking at picking up the vast majority of the points we'll need to stay up. With the exception of Liverpool the other 10 games in that sequence are games we should be picking up points from. The run in is hard. 3 points from Watford would feel amazing, but still gonna have to utterly rock from Xmas onwards whether we win lose or draw tbh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted November 23, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 23, 2015 13 minutes ago, Grasshopper said: I respect your point of view But I don't judge the future on what happened in the past. Sorry, and I hope you understand my POV I understand your POV, but I think it's incredibly naive not to use the past when it is so relevant to the present. Nobody with less than 30 points will remain in the league this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 It's getting to the point where we need to win pretty much all the winnable games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted November 23, 2015 Moderator Share Posted November 23, 2015 Let's say 35pts keeps you up. It tends to be around that figure. 40 is rarely the magic number anymore. That leaves us with 30pts to get in 25 games. Hardly European form. Obviously we need to get to it asap, but it's not the insurmountable task quite yet. Our problem; as Woodytom alludes to; is that we've used up most, if not all of our safety net. We need to start putting the smaller teams away, because we've been mostly fodder to everyone and the bigger sides are hitting their stride now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 (edited) It's a shame that we had quite a few of our winnable games when clueless tim was in charge It's getting to the point where every game that is winnable has to be won the margins are that fine Edited November 23, 2015 by AshVilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, Stevo985 said: I understand your POV, but I think it's incredibly naive not to use the past when it is so relevant to the present. Nobody with less than 30 points will remain in the league this season. Respect In Bold - I hope for all of us fans and the club whatever is needed on pts tally to be 17th or above - I hope we get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted November 23, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 23, 2015 7 minutes ago, BOF said: Let's say 35pts keeps you up. It tends to be around that figure. 40 is rarely the magic number anymore. That leaves us with 30pts to get in 25 games. Hardly European form. Obviously we need to get to it asap, but it's not the insurmountable task quite yet. Our problem; as Woodytom alludes to; is that we've used up most, if not all of our safety net. We need to start putting the smaller teams away, because we've been mostly fodder to everyone and the bigger sides are hitting their stride now. Yep. It's definitely still doable. But it needs to start happening soon. Like I said before, the Watford game is a season definer for many reasons, not just points on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 46 minutes ago, bose said: I know that it all looks very bleak and it seems we need a miracle to avoid relegation but we're only FIVE points from safety. We're running out of games but 5 points isn't that terrible given how we've been doing. Watford will be crucial. I've seen this phrase used before in this thread (except that was a couple of weeks ago and then the line was we are only FOUR POINTS from safety!). To my mind it is a completely misleading way of representing our position. If we had five more points, we would have 10 points from 13 games and be 16th or 17th. Would that constitute "safety"? I don't think so. We would still be very much in peril and would be contemplating a long hard season to scrape together the necessary points to survive. As it is, we are 5 point as adrift even from a team as poor and inconsistent as Newcastle. We are even four points behind the only team we have beaten this season, FFS. We are five points away from even being able to start competing to stay up. There is nothing in our current position to suggest we are very near to "safety" and it is self-delusion to believe that the task of surviving this season is as easy as might be suggested by the phrase "only five points from safety". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Also self-delusion to believe that with this squad getting 30 points from 25 games will be fairly doable. Also self-delusion to believe we will only need 27, 28 or 29 points to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bose Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 minute ago, briny_ear said: I've seen this phrase used before in this thread (except that was a couple of weeks ago and then the line was we are only FOUR POINTS from safety!). To my mind it is a completely misleading way of representing our position. If we had five more points, we would have 10 points from 13 games and be 16th or 17th. Would that constitute "safety"? I don't think so. We would still be very much in peril and would be contemplating a long hard season to scrape together the necessary points to survive. As it is, we are 5 point as adrift even from a team as poor and inconsistent as Newcastle. We are even four points behind the only team we have beaten this season, FFS. We are five points away from even being able to start competing to stay up. There is nothing in our current position to suggest we are very near to "safety" and it is self-delusion to believe that the task of surviving this season is as easy as might be suggested by the phrase "only five points from safety". I think the word safety is maybe not a good enough word. But were still only five points from 17th position as things stand today. On our current form we're not going to get there but if we are to avoid relegation our form will need to change drastically and hopefully that will start with Watford. Garde has my backing, the most I expected from his first two games was 1 point. But I'll concede that the Everton match must have dented the confidence of an already very fragile team. Quote "We would still be very much in peril and would be contemplating a long hard season to scrape together the necessary points to survive." No one is saying it's going to be easy, far from it! No one is questioning that the season will be tough and we'll need a big effort to still be a Premier League side next season but it's still far from impossible. Is your point that five points is unsurpassable? Or that it will extremely difficult to avoid relegation? If it's the latter then I think you'll find 99% of Villa fans are in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted November 23, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, briny_ear said: Also self-delusion to believe that with this squad getting 30 points from 25 games will be fairly doable. No it's not. Nobody is saying it's going to be easy. But 30 points from 25 games is achievable. Whether we'll achieve it or not remains to be seen. But the task itself is achievable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 (edited) 2 hours ago, Grasshopper said: We WILL NOT go down. Why in my own madness do I think this? 1) Sunderland, Bournemouth, Norwich, Newcastle & maybe WBA & Swansea are as shite as us. 2) We have been this low on belief before. Remember 2-0 loss to Hull? home 3-3 draw with QPR? 3) Last season, we needed immediate improvement to survive yet we still managed to throw away points v Stoke, Lose at Newcastle & Draw v QPR and were safe 2 games to spare - 3 teams have to be really really shite to get relegated - we still have over half a season 4) 40 pts target myth. For example if 18th, 19th & 20th get 27,26,25 pts respectively, Why do 17th NEED 40pts to survive? 28pts would be enough, even 27pts with abetter GD would be safe. 5) Take away the name "Watford" and look at a team who are solid and appear to know what they are doing, One can see that this is not neccessarily a winable game. Avoiding defeat would be a GOOD result. 6) I think Remi has a number of free hits before it gets serious and all he has to do is bring on a steady improvement over the next 25 games For example I think even 1pt from ManC Everton & Watford is still not the end of the world (we have that already) Breaking the rest of the season down, Remi has IMHO till the Newcastle game to learn everything he needs to know about which players are going to work within his team/philosophy. If we can get - Newcastle A 1pt, WH H 1/0pts, Norwich A 1pt, S'land A pt, CP H 1/0pts, Leicester H 1/0pts, WBA A 1pt, WH A 1/0pts, Norwich H 3pts 10pts from that lot would see us GAIN pts on Bournemouth, S'land & Norwich and possibly Newcastle, WBA and even Swansea. Maybe from February, with a steady improvement up till then and beyond, we can start picking up a few bonus pts. Towards the end - Swansea A, Bournemouth H, Soton H, Watford A & Newcastle H, we will have to get a minimum of 9pts That should leave us with 24pts (without the free hits - L'pool H, Stoke A, Everton H, ManC A, Spuds H, Chelsea H, ManU A & Arshenal A) plus 4-6pts from the free hits, hopefully something between 28-30pts. I really do believe that 1) it's possible 2) 3 from S'land, Bournemouth, Norwich & Newcastle could end up losing 1, 4, 7 & 5 respectively to our rest of the season pts total. A team is NEVER 100% sure of winning the league with 80-100pts. League champions are the team with 1pt or equal pts & 1 goal better in GD (ManC over ManU a few seasons back) A team will ONLY get relegated if they get 1 pt less or same pts total as 17th but with -1 (or more -) as GD Our target has to be game for game to gain pts on the 4 teams above us before the last game (Arshenal A). From the Shite that's in the league this year I think 27,28 or 29 pts could be enough UTV Villa till I die Go Remi I admire your refusal to accept relegation and it's not madness its your opinion and I congratulate you for it. where I disagree for what it's worth.....I don't think those teams are worse than us......sadly. Edited November 23, 2015 by TRO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted November 23, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, briny_ear said: I've seen this phrase used before in this thread (except that was a couple of weeks ago and then the line was we are only FOUR POINTS from safety!). To my mind it is a completely misleading way of representing our position. If we had five more points, we would have 10 points from 13 games and be 16th or 17th. Would that constitute "safety"? I don't think so. We would still be very much in peril and would be contemplating a long hard season to scrape together the necessary points to survive. As it is, we are 5 point as adrift even from a team as poor and inconsistent as Newcastle. We are even four points behind the only team we have beaten this season, FFS. We are five points away from even being able to start competing to stay up. There is nothing in our current position to suggest we are very near to "safety" and it is self-delusion to believe that the task of surviving this season is as easy as might be suggested by the phrase "only five points from safety". However the big point here has to be confidence! If the 5 points were simply given to us as a christmas present you point would be totally correct, however these 5 points (probably more over the next few games as others pick up points) will only be gained through positive results, which in turn will will give us the confidence to go on for more. If we catch up to the like of Newcastle we will have done so on the back of a lot better form than the others around us, and so should hopefully start to use that to climb further still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 3 hours ago, Grasshopper said: THIS unbelievable. And that's the reason why I think, a bit of form, a bit of luck, get some sort of momentum going and we can crawl back to level points team by team and take over 3 of them 1 by 1 I agree with this: yes we are terrible but surely we can only get better. Yet only 5 points to escape the relegation zone. There is a very small glimmer of hope if we can somehow win on saturday. Things can change very quickly in football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted November 23, 2015 Moderator Share Posted November 23, 2015 2 hours ago, briny_ear said: Also self-delusion to believe that with this squad getting 30 points from 25 games will be fairly doable. Also self-delusion to believe we will only need 27, 28 or 29 points to stay up. No more self-delusional than reading what wasn't written. 'Fairly doable' was your phrase. The point actually being made was that 30 points from the remaining games is what is likely to be required for survival. Doable or not. Whether or not we achieve that tally is what is up for discussion. But that's probably the target, given recent seasons. Me? I think we can do it. I think it will be very difficult. I think if we DO achieve it then it will probably be by the skin of our teeth. At this point in time even the most optimistic of Villa fans has ruled out a saunter to safety. Garde himself said this will probably go down to the last day of the season. That's manager-speak for 'skin of our teeth' too I think. So no, there's no self-delusion here. I think pretty much everyone knows that IF we are to stay up then the turnaround needs to happen very quickly. Has to happen this Saturday in fact. If we don't beat Watford then I think I'll be resigned to the drop, because it'll be one more example that we can't even beat the shite that's floating directly above us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 The annoying thing is, for the first time in a while I felt quite optimistic after the Citeh result. But our best player being ruled out for the season and the performance against Everton has just taken it all away. Fail to win against Watford and it really is over if it isn't already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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