dont_do_it_doug. Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 We are 4 points off safety with 28 games to play.trouble is of those 28 games the next batch are almost unwinnable . 4 points from the initial easier games. That's probably why people think we are down And there are some really bad teams down here with us, as there are every year, just as capable of going on such a run. I think we are in really bad shape. But ready to throw in the towel? That's madness. I want no part of it! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 We are 4 points off safety with 28 games to play.trouble is of those 28 games the next batch are almost unwinnable . 4 points from the initial easier games. That's probably why people think we are down Yes the question is how many points will we be adrift after the next three games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) I think we are in really bad shape. But ready to throw in the towel? That's madness. I want no part of it! Well said. I have never seen it in the make up of an Aston Villa fan to throw the towel in to be honest with you. As a collective it is not in our make up is it and it is certainly not in mine.We have been crap no doubt about that but there are a number of poor teams in this division and I am confident come full time on May 15th 2016 there will be at least three sides sitting below us in the table.We can't change what has gone before we can only change what is in front of us and I fully intend to play my part as an Aston Villa supporter in backing the players and the new manager whoever that may be. We are Aston Villa fans ffs and how lucky are we to be able to say that. Don't throw the towels in boys and girls it is not what we do. Edited October 31, 2015 by markavfc40 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) It's irrelevant how many points were adrift we need to get 34 points or above to stay up that should be the targetIf we hit that mark we should stay up look at Leicester last season for example Edited November 1, 2015 by AshVilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 How are we ten points behind a deeply mediocre Albion side already? Cheez. Going to be a long season. Again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TB Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) How are we ten points behind a deeply mediocre Albion side already? Cheez. Going to be a long season. Again.A deeply mediocre side with a mediocre, unimaginative, but fairly competent manager might - just possibly - outperform a mediocre team with a clueless, wildly clutching at straws manager. No? Long season again? Fully agree. (btw: I just realised that my sig line describes the Lerner era to a T) Edited November 1, 2015 by TB sig line comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supernova26 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 For me us Bournemouth and Norwich look the most likely to go down. Newcastle will come good they have the players, Sunderland Big Sam safety net. If you take the 2 NE clubs out of the equation, beyond Bournemouth and Norwich, you can't really give a genuine argument for any other team to go down other than us.I've not given up, but pragmatically this is how I see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasoncb Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 For me us Bournemouth and Norwich look the most likely to go down. Newcastle will come good they have the players, Sunderland Big Sam safety net. If you take the 2 NE clubs out of the equation, beyond Bournemouth and Norwich, you can't really give a genuine argument for any other team to go down other than us.I've not given up, but pragmatically this is how I see it. I agree with Norwich and Bournemouth but regarding Newcastle they always find a way to implode even with very good players and they are playing well and not picking up points is not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted November 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 1, 2015 We're playing again tomorrow. It's time to pick myself up again, like I always do before games.Thanks for the help lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSV Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 im soooo confident we will win tomorrow. Not sure why. Just have this feeling. Last time i had that was against Liverpool in the FA CUP Semi Final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osmark86 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 im soooo confident we will win tomorrow. Not sure why. Just have this feeling. Last time i had that was against Liverpool in the FA CUP Semi Final.I doubt it. Spurs would have to be colossally poor, we would whave to play football, we would have to avoid errors and not choke under pressure. Add in not conceiding in the last 10minutes. We would have to hold on to a lead or be able to equalize if we're down. I have no confidence we'll achieve any of this tomorrow. Here's hoping though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 We've played mediocre teams and got one win. We've played teams in poor form and their only win in xxx number of games has come against Us and they then revert back to bad form. We can't win a game at home , we go a goal behind and you can forget any kind of result other than a defeat. We can't score and our defence makes us crave for the return to the first team of senderos. On top of that we have a run of games now where we'll be lucky to get three corners and a new manager coming into the club who I will support but whose main claim to the job seems to be he can speak French . Well sacre bleu. The little bit of optimism I have left says well if Leicester could do it why couldn't we. The realist says wea are **** and I'm just hoping we get past the 19 point mark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Sunderland losing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted November 1, 2015 Popular Post Share Posted November 1, 2015 Okay, so I'm procrastinating and avoiding work. I analysed all of the last 15 Premier League seasons, and where the table was after 10 games, to see roughly what our chances of surviving are. I just looked at those teams who were in the relegation places at this point, since those far above the relegation places who ended up relegated aren't relevant to our situation. There have been 45 teams in the bottom 3 over those 15 seasons (obviously). 20 stayed up at the end of the season, while 25 went down, which suggests our chances of staying up are around 45%.The average points total for those who stayed up at this point was 6.65, while of those who went down it was 6.29*. This would suggest that we are way below the threshold, and perhaps our chances of relegation are higher, but the data is conflicted on this - there were only 6 instances where teams had 4 points or fewer, and 3 of those teams survived, so while there isn't much data for this, what there is suggests we aren't really much more likely to go down than, eg. Sunderland (statistically, forgetting Fat Sam or whatever). In only one of the fifteen seasons did all 3 teams in the relegation places after 10 games survive (2008/09 - Wigan/Bolton/Tottenham) but on only one occasion did all 3 teams go down (2006/07 - Watford/Sheff Utd/Charlton). On nine occasions, 2 of the teams went down, while on 4 occasions it was only one. Overall, I think we have an around 40% chance of surviving based on historical precedent. That's actually mildly better than I thought before I did the analysis. *I excluded Portsmouth 2009/10 from this part of the analysis as they started the season on -9 points. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 (edited) Sunderland look back to their usual self after beating Newcastle Edited November 1, 2015 by Arj Guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bunnski Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 In truth Sunderland were awful against Newcastle and were pure lucky the way the game went in their favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 . . . and now they're level again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted November 1, 2015 Great - Sunderland down 4-2 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 5 - 2. Everton running riot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThunderPower_14 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 We're beyond the point where scrapping a few points will save us IMO. We need to go on a run of games where we're the better team and get the job done well. It's hard to see it happening, but let's hope the new manager is able to get the best out of the squad. I believe the talent is there. Our cards are marked though. Unless we have a pretty significant change across the club, if it's not this year it'll be next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts