dont_do_it_doug. Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 You can get 28k followers with boring shit like that? Why am I wasting my life working for a living! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlwaysAVFC Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 The new manager bounce doesn't exist. It's statistically proven to be negligible at most Yes it does. But it's a reversion to the mean as opposed to the effect of a new manager. So if a team is underperforming, the "new manager bounce" is merely an effect of the team not underperforming under the old manager. Which basically means you can't just bring in 15 managers spread throughout the season and harness the bounce to win you the league Because your team will just perform as they should perform. However, with that being said, Sherwood has gone beyond that bounce now. He's got us performing better than that imo. Not seen the stats but guessing they only really show that getting a new manager towards the tail end of doesn't always work and maybe even works less than it succeeds, but it's obviously the case numerous times where it has had an affect. As Stevo says under performing is a massive factor. Say Burnley sacked Dyche and Sherwood or someone else went in, I imagine the bounce is less likely to happen/be successful because they are possibly overall playing to their full potential. We all know watching Villa had been so frustrating because we knew individually we've got good players who weren't performing individually or as a team for whatever reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 11, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 11, 2015 Exactly that. We'd have gotten a bounce regardless of who came in because we were undeniably performing worse than the squad was capable of. SO as long as the new manager wasn't completely shite, he'd get some positive looking results. But like I said, Sherwood has gone way beyond that. You can't explain Sherwood's good performance as a new manager bounce. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 The new manager bounce doesn't exist. It's statistically proven to be negligible at most Yes it does. But it's a reversion to the mean as opposed to the effect of a new manager. So if a team is underperforming, the "new manager bounce" is merely an effect of the team not underperforming under the old manager. Which basically means you can't just bring in 15 managers spread throughout the season and harness the bounce to win you the league Because your team will just perform as they should perform. However, with that being said, Sherwood has gone beyond that bounce now. He's got us performing better than that imo. But the "bounce" in the way it's typically used, doesn't exist. A manager of a team picking up a point a game, who's replaced, will usually see his successor pick up similar ppg. However, in the case where the outgoing manager was rubbish, and the incoming manager is good, that's not "new manager bounce", that's replacing a bad manager with a good one, and the term doesn't apply. In our case, we replaced a bad manager with a good one, so the results improved. There's no "new manager bounce" there, it's simply a quality upgrade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Exactly that. We'd have gotten a bounce regardless of who came in because we were undeniably performing worse than the squad was capable of. SO as long as the new manager wasn't completely shite, he'd get some positive looking results. But like I said, Sherwood has gone way beyond that. You can't explain Sherwood's good performance as a new manager bounce. Indeed. I think that he has shown talent that I was not aware he had. He has galvanised and organised them to play in a way befitting of their attributes, which in such a short time frame was not only a very astute decision but also very impressive. He didn't just "try" to get them to play a certain way, he succeeded. We are now set up to go out and attempt to blow teams away. I mean Christ, that's all I've ever really wanted! That and the FA Cup... Though he has also shown an ability to adjust. I thought the way we set up against United for example was reassuring even if it was wrong. It didn't work (though wasn't too far off) but it showed that he is not *just* a balls to the wall, gung ho style manager. Against Spurs we battled hard for the win, it was a smash and grab but a well done one rather than a lucky one. He blew Rodgers away tactically... We appear to be the perfect fit for each other in terms of our current position, squad strengths and character. One area he is lacking in is in-game management IMO. I don't think he reacts quick enough to changes in the flow of a game and when he does I often feel he's not reacting correctly. On the occasions when he has nailed it I feel they have been obvious decisions, which is fine of course he doesn't need to be Mourinho, as long as he makes those "obvious" changes most of the time and doesn't get into MON territory of consistently doing nothing. Overall - absolutely delighted with him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Ok my first bit of humble pie here. I was dead-set against Tim coming to the club. He has outstripped my expectations already, not just in the results, but in the way we have gone about getting those results. I've smiled at Villa Park, I've jumped around with joy at Wembley, I've started watching the highlights again on MOTD. The complete 180 of the playing style of the team has actually been enjoyable and I have to give credit where it is due and that clearly sits with Tim. I still have major reservations, so I am not yet a complete convert. He has never signed a player, never managed a full season, but these are now things I hope he will get right rather than expect him to get wrong. With a possible takeover looming there is so much that can sour this relationship, but if I can't enjoy the way things are right now, then I may as well stop following the game altogether. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntrimBlack Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 The first two matches were losses so we cannot really say there was a new manager bounce. He has done fantastically well, I feel that I am watching a different team, but we must remember he is still basically a rookie manager, and we need to cut him some slack next season, as it is likely that he will make mistakes, as he will be learning on the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I like how he's got us progressing in terms of playing style. Not only are we more attacking but we're also more creative and retaining possession better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted May 11, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 11, 2015 I wouldn't change Tim for any manager right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nostarapter Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/benfica-coach-jorge-jesus-resumes-warofwords-with-tim-sherwood-he-has-zero-idea-tactically-10177788.html Hope we play Benfica next season love Tims Villa to get revenge what a words removed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a m ole Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I have returned from not posting for a while, and have deduced that I was wrong about Lambert's negative effect on the squad (although still maintain that the current state of football means for any team and manager outside the top lot it is near impossible to not just be also-rans) and I was wrong to not give Sherwood benefit of the doubt. He's been an absolute revelation. I've started to see more and more than football is confidence. Confidence in yourself, your players and the man in charge of organising you - evident more than anyone in Cleverley and Benteke. The managers job is to bring that out of a squad and Sherwood has, almost in an instant, done that. I think that the difference between this and a 'new manager bounce' is that in Tim Sherwood I don't see a man who is putting on a show, coming in and making promises he can't keep or making quick fix changes just because any new approach will be enough to buoy the players a little, I see a man who has unerring confidence in himself as well as the players he picks and absolute honesty. So if and when results aren't coming our way I don't see someone who has the wind easily taken out of their sails and have faith in him to get us through that. Crucially, his confidence hasn't only brushed off on the players, it's infected the fans too and for the first time since we were blinded by the charm of Martin O'Neill there's a buzz amongst us and it's genuinely exciting watching Villa play again - only the wage bill is under control and the football is prettier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikantcpell Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfingers Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Lets be clear here-Sherwood is doing an almost identical job here (statistically) than he was at Spurs. The results are not simply down to a "new manager bounce" but the fact remains that the mark of a good manager is having the ability to turn things around once the honeymoon period is over and we hit a slump. That is not saying that TS cannot do this, I think he can and I believe the club are on the verge of a level of consistency that would have been beyond our wildest dreams, going into the Hull game. 5 teams at the bottom have changed managers this season. Ourselves, Palace, WBA and Sunderland have definitely improved because of it. As stated previously, there is a bounce when a new guy comes in. Certainly, Villa, Palace & WBA have bought better calibre of managers in and the consistency is still there after the bounce factor has worn off. The "bounce factor" comment was made in response to someone who had failed to understand what had previously been posted. I think people are making too much out of this-There is clearly a hell of a lot more to TS than simply having an impact with "bounce factor" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Manager of the season if we win the FA Cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-Copenhagen Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Manager of the season when we win the FA Cup Fixed it for you :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 The new manager bounce doesn't exist. It's statistically proven to be negligible at most Yes it does. But it's a reversion to the mean as opposed to the effect of a new manager. So if a team is underperforming, the "new manager bounce" is merely an effect of the team not underperforming under the old manager. Which basically means you can't just bring in 15 managers spread throughout the season and harness the bounce to win you the league Because your team will just perform as they should perform. However, with that being said, Sherwood has gone beyond that bounce now. He's got us performing better than that imo. Not seen the stats but guessing they only really show that getting a new manager towards the tail end of doesn't always work and maybe even works less than it succeeds, but it's obviously the case numerous times where it has had an affect. As Stevo says under performing is a massive factor. Say Burnley sacked Dyche and Sherwood or someone else went in, I imagine the bounce is less likely to happen/be successful because they are possibly overall playing to their full potential. We all know watching Villa had been so frustrating because we knew individually we've got good players who weren't performing individually or as a team for whatever reasons.[/quote Markavfc.....maintained that the players were good enough, when performances were well below par under PL, were,suggesting otherwise........so something was clearly wrong with that management. Tim Sherwood has clearly proved. Mark right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 (edited) Interesting again is that he mentioned needing 6 wins when he came in. We all laughed at the notion and immediately wrote off our chances of doing so. You'd fancy us now. Edited May 11, 2015 by dont_do_it_doug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condimentalist Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 (edited) Interesting again is that he mentioned needing 6 wins when he came in. We all laughed at the notion and immediately wrote off our chances of doing so. You'd fancy us now. Amazing what a positive attitude and a bit of belief does. We'll get those 6 wins, I'm in no doubt. I've been impressed with Sherwood for a number of reasons, and I'm sure he's doing some good work on the training ground, but those characteristics of positivity and belief stand out above all others. It might seem like he's a soothsayer, saying things and then they happen. Well, that's because it becomes the barometer and anything else is falling short. When Mourinho said last season that it would be next year they'd win the title, he went a long way to making it happen. Maybe Sherwood has learned the same trick. Edited May 11, 2015 by PatrickCousens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post packoman Posted May 11, 2015 Popular Post Share Posted May 11, 2015 So kind of like a bouncy castle... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I think the bounce factor is a bit of snub to the undoubted " soft skills" that Tim is blessed with and has unleashed on his squad. I would suspect he has spent time with one on ones.....he has learnt much from his own personal experiences on the pitch. and appears that he knows well what it's all about.....He isn't Mourinho, well not yet, but he has Nous , Tim reminds me of Harry Redknapp & John Gregory in their pomp and the confidence they both exuded....Tim is much more creative than John Gregory, but both have a sharp wit, that endears you to them. I think Tim Sherwood has a lot more to offer...this has just been a task of keeping afloat a team that was IMO.....doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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