Rodders Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 (edited) two slightly old articles but still appropriate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/ Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls By Nate Silver Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump after speaking Saturday in Birmingham, Alabama. Eric Schultz / AP Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will play into Trump’s hands, or that Republicans really might be in disarray. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high. Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said so far has harmed his standing with Republicans, the argument goes, why should we expect him to fade later on? One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate). Trump will also have to get that 25 or 30 percent to go to the polls. For now, most surveys cover Republican-leaning adults or registered voters, rather than likely voters. Combine that with the poor response rates to polls and the fact that an increasing number of polls use nontraditional sampling methods, and it’s not clear how much overlap there is between the people included in these surveys and the relatively small share of Republicans who will turn up to vote in primaries and caucuses. But there’s another, more fundamental problem. That 25 or 30 percent of the vote isn’t really Donald Trump’s for the keeping. In fact, it doesn’t belong to any candidate. If past nomination races are any guide, the vast majority of eventual Republican voters haven’t made up their minds yet. .... and more ) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-wont-win-just-because-more-voters-are-paying-attention/ Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention By Harry Enten A campaign rally for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Saturday at Robarts Arena in Sarasota, Florida. Steve Nesius / AP The argument about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination has gone something like this: Us: Trump is very unlikely to win the nomination. Them: He’s likely to win. Just look at the polls. Us: Those polls don’t mean much. They haven’t been predictive in the past. Them: But so many people are paying attention to the campaign this year, the polls may be more meaningful. That last point, for example, was made recently by political forecaster Alan Abramowitz. The hypothesis is possible, but there’s no evidence to support it. In fact, historically there has been no relationship between how predictive the polls were at this point and how many people said they were paying attention to the campaign in the fall before primary voting. It’s certainly true that voters say they are paying more attention to this campaign than to previous ones. Two weeks ago, 82 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they were following the election “very closely” or “somewhat closely,” according to an ABC News/Washington Post survey.1 These pollsters asked the same question in eight previous primary races with no incumbent president running for a given party’s nomination, and no more than 75 percent of voters in that party ever said they were following the campaign “very closely” or “somewhat closely.” CYCLE PARTY FALL POLL LEADER PARTY VOTERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY WON NOMINATION 2016 Republican Donald Trump 82% — 2008 Democratic Hillary Clinton 75 2008 Republican Rudy Giuliani 74 2012 Republican Mitt Romney 74 ✔ 2004 Democratic Howard Dean 55 1988 Democratic Jesse Jackson 51 1988 Republican George H.W. Bush 51 ✔ 2000 Republican George W. Bush 50 ✔ 2000 Democratic Al Gore 44 ✔ But a lot of voters were paying attention during the three most recent primaries without an incumbent president of their party running, and the polls were not all that predictive. The fall polls before primary voting called the winner correctly in 2012, but Mitt Romney barely led the field in late 2011, and he eventually won the nomination fairly comfortably. In fall 2007, Rudy Giuliani was leading in the Republican primary, and John McCain, the eventual 2008 nominee, was in fourth place. and more.... trust in Nate and relax - probably. Seems more dramatic now, but I am still convinced when we get even remotely close to it - he'll lose his lead, at the very least registered independent voters when they're polled I would think "er **** no". Edited December 10, 2015 by Rodders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 10, 2015 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2015 1 hour ago, YGabbana said: Its scary how many people are defending Trump. His words are very similar to Hitler. No they're not. I'm absolutely not defending trump - he's a monumental arse, with dumb as f "ideas" - but he's not said similar stuff to Hitler. He's just a bell end full of noxious wind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 3 minutes ago, blandy said: No they're not. I'm absolutely not defending trump - he's a monumental arse, with dumb as f "ideas" - but he's not said similar stuff to Hitler. He's just a bell end full of noxious wind. Trump hasnt spoken about murdering people so no he isnt Hitler I agree with pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Its scary how many people are defending Trump. His words are very similar to Hitler. Only a 5 year old would think that. 😏 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The other side of Nate's work, a part which he fully acknowledges, is that both Trumps numbers and background are an outlier w.r.t. previous and as such the predictive ability of models and extrapolations need to be interpreted with some caution, i.e., he can win or maybe ?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 He's aligned himself with Katie Hopkins, that about says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choffer Posted December 10, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2015 An anagram of Donald Trump is Damp old Runt. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 One can't help wonder if he has been the recipient of any brown envelopes from Mr Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 10, 2015 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2015 15 minutes ago, choffer said: An anagram of Donald Trump is Damp old Runt. That is all. Don Turd-palm. Lord P Madnut, Dump Old Rant, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 He's aligned himself with Katie Hopkins, that about says it all. In what sense? That he's a vile human being or that he's saying things that he doesn't believe in order to seek attention from the vocal minority and then claim he is liked by the majority? Which also makes him a vile human being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 That he should be ignored by all intelligent lifeforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YGabbana Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Its scary how many people are defending Trump. His words are very similar to Hitler. No they're not. I'm absolutely not defending trump - he's a monumental arse, with dumb as f "ideas" - but he's not said similar stuff to Hitler. He's just a bell end full of noxious wind. Trump wants mass banning of any Muslim entering America. Hitler mass deported or attempted to mass deport Jews. Trump wants Muslims to carry special ID cards. Hitler proposed Jews wear special ID cards. Although obviously Trump is way off being as evil as hitler was, you can see the message hes trying to send across. Banning a person from a country simply because of their religion is racist and evil. Yet so many people in this country are agreeing with him, i find it sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 who in this country? there is no one in this thread at all, maybe the katie hopkins reading neanderthals. also mass banning is different to mass deportation and camps. He's a phenomenally repellant individual with odious views but he's not genocidal, and that's not an insignificant difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 10, 2015 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2015 1 hour ago, YGabbana said: Trump wants mass banning of any Muslim entering America. Hitler mass deported or attempted to mass deport Jews. Trump wants Muslims to carry special ID cards. Hitler proposed Jews wear special ID cards. Although obviously Trump is way off being as evil as hitler was, you can see the message hes trying to send across. Banning a person from a country simply because of their religion is racist and evil. Yet so many people in this country are agreeing with him, i find it sick. I almost don't believe I'm writing this, because I think Trump is a comedy figure of small minded ignorance, vanity and self promotion with some ignorant and bigoted views.... But. He said (stupidly) he wants a temporary halt to immigration of muslims to america. and yes he's said stuff about ID cards, Mexicans being rapists, he's mocked a disabled person, been misogynistic about a woman TV interviewer and general spouted some horrible crap. But, as Rodders said, Hitler was worse by a factor of millions and millions. As far as I know Trump's just voiced off some bigoted drivel. Hitler - well there was the whole world war 2 thing, The holocaust, concentration camps, killing squads, the SS, Aryan supremacy, 10s of millions of dead people. Not comparable. He's (trump) Katie Hopkins with money. A dick with a microphone. I'd be more worried if he was President of the USA, but he's not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 13 hours ago, Rodders said: who in this country? there is no one in this thread at all, maybe the katie hopkins reading neanderthals. also mass banning is different to mass deportation and camps. He's a phenomenally repellant individual with odious views but he's not genocidal, and that's not an insignificant difference. More people signed the petition to stop all immigration and close the uk borders until ISIS are defeated than have signed the petition to ban Trump from entering the U.K. assuming they are different people signing each petition that's nearly a million nutters out there ... Makes you sleep easy doesn't it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chrisp65 Posted December 11, 2015 Popular Post Share Posted December 11, 2015 I wonder how many people have signed something for free speech around the time of Hebdo and have now signed something to ban Trump? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Ban the guy who wants to ban those guys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted December 11, 2015 Moderator Share Posted December 11, 2015 16 hours ago, choffer said: An anagram of Donald Trump is Damp old Runt. That is all. I wish he was called Donald Tcump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 On 12/9/2015 at 19:33, CarewsEyebrowDesigner said: He's a horrid old dick but banning someone from entering a country for being a dick is childish at best. Indeed, that's half a million or so morons who have signed it (although as pointed out above, surely lots of those are just being 'trolls' and are probably voting from outside the UK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YGabbana Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Trump wants mass banning of any Muslim entering America. Hitler mass deported or attempted to mass deport Jews. Trump wants Muslims to carry special ID cards. Hitler proposed Jews wear special ID cards. Although obviously Trump is way off being as evil as hitler was, you can see the message hes trying to send across. Banning a person from a country simply because of their religion is racist and evil. Yet so many people in this country are agreeing with him, i find it sick. I almost don't believe I'm writing this, because I think Trump is a comedy figure of small minded ignorance, vanity and self promotion with some ignorant and bigoted views.... But. He said (stupidly) he wants a temporary halt to immigration of muslims to america. and yes he's said stuff about ID cards, Mexicans being rapists, he's mocked a disabled person, been misogynistic about a woman TV interviewer and general spouted some horrible crap. But, as Rodders said, Hitler was worse by a factor of millions and millions. As far as I know Trump's just voiced off some bigoted drivel. Hitler - well there was the whole world war 2 thing, The holocaust, concentration camps, killing squads, the SS, Aryan supremacy, 10s of millions of dead people. Not comparable. He's (trump) Katie Hopkins with money. A dick with a microphone. I'd be more worried if he was President of the USA, but he's not. Which is why i said obviously trump is way off being as evil as hitler was, although his current thoughts on muslims are similar to that of hitlers in jews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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