Vive_La_Villa Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) United are not a good team. They just have decent individuals and occasionally a lift from a very big stadium full of fans. . It might be enough to squeeze in to top 5 but I doubt it. The two defeats against them still pisses me off. Edited March 29 by Vive_La_Villa 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Martinez back for them is big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 2 hours ago, DJBOB said: They are 6th because they have picked up unlikely results. By almost every metric, except GA - they are midtalbe or worse A shocking 14th in goals for 9th in xG 12th in xGA Somehow 4th in GA - over peforming their GA-xGA by over 8 goals (Liverpool is the only other club in the same bracket) Allowed the 4th most shots in the league 12th in xGD. By almost every underlying metric, they're nowhere near 6th. Their spawny results have kept them in 6th, not the other way around. Not debating any of that, but their spawny luck has lasted until gameweek 29. Are we really saying they arent going to get more lucky results for the last 10 games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Villa_Vids Posted March 29 Popular Post Share Posted March 29 (edited) It is about us guys, we are in a great position. I am so proud of Emery and the players. We have built on last season - now lets get behind the boys and get that fourth position plus a Europa Conference title. Edited March 29 by Villa_Vids 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 We need to win 4 games to keep United at bay. Simple as that in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just bloody beat Wolves bros, they've beat Chelsea and Spurs twice this season plus Man City, they set-up well against the top teams, won't be easy, full concentration needed to beat them, I've seen this arrogance before and doesn't end well, don't want to get to 8pm tomorrow begging for a second chance, wishing other teams do us a favor, just get the three points 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 53 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said: Not debating any of that, but their spawny luck has lasted until gameweek 29. Are we really saying they arent going to get more lucky results for the last 10 games? They could, but it's extra pessimistic to think that United will beat their season trajectory, fluke their way to 10 results while Villa lose against their season trajectory and fluke their way to getting a worse PPG than in Unai's whole tenure at Villa. It's not impossible and it is Villa but it's the least likely of scenarios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jas10 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jas10 Posted March 29 Popular Post Share Posted March 29 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post VillaJay Posted March 29 Popular Post Share Posted March 29 Just on Utd, as pointed out they are outperforming all key metrics and the eye test also shows us they have been extremely fortuitous to be bailed out by the individual quality of their players, the stats usually do even out and in truth they should only catch us or Spurs if we both implode. The flip side is Villa/Spurs have been maintaining good form in line with their stats and in our case we have been maintaining this form for over 50+ games. Villa lose 1 game and the narrative turns to we're wobbling but in truth, our form is good and we will lose a couple more, but keep going as we are and we're right on track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 29 Moderator Share Posted March 29 Our fixtures are tough as teak. There's the three that we'd probably not expect to get anything out of; Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City - especially since two of those teams will be smarting from the defeats at Villa Park. Then there are three tough games against teams fighting for Europe; Wolves, Chelsea and Brighton - we're going to need to get points from those. And then there are three against teams that are lower down the table; Brentford, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace all of whom are capable on their day. I don't think we'll get any points from the first group, I think we'll get six from the third group, so we're going to need two wins from the games against Wolves, Chelsea and Brighton to be sure of a top five finish. It's a tough run, especially with the Conference games scattered through it - I think the keys are to get a win tomorrow, which will ease the pressure before Citeh and Arsenal and to make sure we beat Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton. If you rule out City, Arsenal and Liverpool and assume we'll need 11 or 12 points to keep United at bay, then we're going to need four wins out of six against the others. I still think it could go down to the last day and Palace - hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 29 Moderator Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, DJBOB said: They could, but it's extra pessimistic to think that United will beat their season trajectory, fluke their way to 10 results while Villa lose against their season trajectory and fluke their way to getting a worse PPG than in Unai's whole tenure at Villa. I think United's fixtures are weaker than the rest of their season as a whole and ours are tougher than the rest of our season as a whole -i think it's likely United will get more points than they've been averaging and we'll get less - the key is making sure the gap remains between us and that we don't lose enough of the lead to put us in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 End of the day we beat Wolves and we'll be 12 points clear of Man. United. Regardless of games in hand that's a monumental lead to have with so few games left. And a far superior GD aswell. Midweek we could easily lose at Man. City. But they could easily lose at Chelsea aswell. Then next weekend we have another chance to increase points as on paper Brentford at home is of course far more winnable than Liverpool at home. People going on about the cup game but let's remember that was a draw at 90 minutes. I personally think they ceased to be a threat to catch us when they lost at home to Fulham. Given they'd just won at VP they had momentum again and could've really piled the pressure on us but they didn't and I suspect the run in will be much the same. They'll drop at least 10 more points this season imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: Our fixtures are tough as teak. There's the three that we'd probably not expect to get anything out of; Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City - especially since two of those teams will be smarting from the defeats at Villa Park. Then there are three tough games against teams fighting for Europe; Wolves, Chelsea and Brighton - we're going to need to get points from those. And then there are three against teams that are lower down the table; Brentford, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace all of whom are capable on their day. I don't think we'll get any points from the first group, I think we'll get six from the third group, so we're going to need two wins from the games against Wolves, Chelsea and Brighton to be sure of a top five finish. It's a tough run, especially with the Conference games scattered through it - I think the keys are to get a win tomorrow, which will ease the pressure before Citeh and Arsenal and to make sure we beat Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton. If you rule out City, Arsenal and Liverpool and assume we'll need 11 or 12 points to keep United at bay, then we're going to need four wins out of six against the others. I still think it could go down to the last day and Palace - hope not. We'll need something on the final day for sure. Spurs could be Spurs but they really should beat Burnley and Sheffield United at home and probably by quite a few goals in both so unless we're 7-8 points clear of them with about four games to go then nothing will be done and everything will still be in the balance. Key is Spurs don't start regularly picking up away wins as if they do that they'll probably comfortably get past 70 points with what they have left at home and I think that will be tough for us to match. We sort of need to do what Brighton did last season in the run in. They actually lost to Forest and Everton in their final 10 games. However they finished above us and sorted it before the final day as they went to Arsenal and won 3-0 and got 4 points at home to Man. United and Man. City. It's actually similar to Spurs run in and people just assuming they'll lose to the top 3, I don't think they will. Can't see anything at Man. City but we shouldn't just be writing off Arsenal (given they have Bayern Munich either side of our game) and Liverpool at home. We went to Liverpool in the 37th match last season and got the draw we needed so not sure why playing them at VP is some impossible game even to get a draw out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 I still think we’ll finish 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 4 hours ago, VillaChris said: Spurs run in and people just assuming they'll lose to the top 3, I don't think they will. Some people just assuming we will lose to the top 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Villa, Luton and Brentford wins today please. Not too much to ask for, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Spurs will probably put about 6 past that Luton defence at home Brentford will be a tricky away fixture for Man U though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Got to beat Wolves today. Got to. Don’t like labelling games as “must win” when we still have 9 left but if we don’t win today, it’s likely going to be 4 games without a win come Wednesday night and your opening the door for Man Utd. I think Man Utd will drop points in at least 2 of their next 3 games but they will be going into those games sensing we are starting to stumble and we are giving them a sniff of a chance if we don’t win today. Good thing is I expect to us to win today. Won’t be pretty, don’t think games against Wolves are but we will win. Expect Spurs to beat Luton 4-0 to put pressure on us, us to beat Wolves 2-1 to put pressure on Man Utd and I fancy Brentford to at least get a draw today. Brentford still need points to stay up and will be looking to bounce back from that loss to Burnley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 We've had some must win/don't lose games and we've failed when it comes to it. We need to get something today, a draw wouldn't be great though. If England get the extra place do we have to play a qualifying game if we finish 5th or are we straight in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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