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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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1 hour ago, omariqy said:

Whether last night was a point gained or two lost will depend on Spurs result today. If they win then it’s likely City have nothing to play for against them in the penultimate game. That would mean Spurs would more than likely get at least another 12 points.

I don’t agree re City…with nothing to play for City would be very dangerous because they will just play with their toy (Spurs).  City are deadly in two periods, firstly when chasing the last dozen of games or more of a season and secondly when they have nothing to play for because they are free and the quality shines.

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There’s a few posts about CL not being the promised land and Newcastle being an example. 

However we need CL due to the finances involved with regards to commercial deals etc. if we don’t make CL we simply need to sell one or two big name players. 

then it becomes harder. If we make CL we keep the majority of the squad and improve on them with 1/2 quality additions and improve again next season. 

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2 hours ago, rodders129 said:

I think some of the wild overreactions are being driven by a feverish desperation to qualify for the UCL on the basis that it’s the promised land and will suddenly transform the club and and team into a title chasing outfit.

Qualifying one year for the UCL is not a magic bullet. We have living proof this season from Newcastle.

The way we transform this club is by getting behind Unai and the lads for every game and enjoying the process/challenge. The players and staff will learn and level up as they go. There’s no rush here. Of course I want us to hit 4th this season but if we’re in Europa we should be grateful and there are upsides. It’s another great opportunity for a European trophy next season and a great learning experience. Im so glad we’ve had conference this year as preparation.

Oh stop being so reasonable

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19 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I don’t agree re City…with nothing to play for City would be very dangerous because they will just play with their toy (Spurs).  City are deadly in two periods, firstly when chasing the last dozen of games or more of a season and secondly when they have nothing to play for because they are free and the quality shines.

Do you not remember how they played against Brighton and Brentford last season when the title was won?

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I feel like last night was 2 points dropped than 1 point gained. We didn't turn up and this is the confusing thing about this team: brilliant when you least expect it (Arsenal), then shite when you're expecting a big performance like last night.

 

4th is far from done. I fear it will go down to the last day which will be very stressful.

 

We have to hope Spurs only take 1-2 points from their three tough games this week, very possible. But even then they still have Burnley and Sheffield Utd which should yield 6 more points. 

 

Brighton, Liverpool, Palace isn't an easy run in, especially when we have the first two straight after European games. Palace are in ridiculously good form.

 

I suspect if we lose Tielemans and Martinez for any length of time we will finish 5th. If they are ok we should do just enough to finish 4th. It's that simple. 

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5 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

I feel like last night was 2 points dropped than 1 point gained. We didn't turn up and this is the confusing thing about this team: brilliant when you least expect it (Arsenal), then shite when you're expecting a big performance like last night.

That’s basically true of virtually every team in this league.

Also we’ve still dropped the least points from a winning position out of 20 teams in the league.

 

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That was a horrible second half but we all would take a point if offered it before the game - I had no doubt that Chelsea if they wanted it would be a handful. 7 points clear will look a lot better IF Arsenal beat Spurs today - however as we've learnt in the co-efficient cup, you simply cannot rely on the 'bigger' teams.

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18 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

I feel like last night was 2 points dropped than 1 point gained. We didn't turn up and this is the confusing thing about this team: brilliant when you least expect it (Arsenal), then shite when you're expecting a big performance like last night.

 

4th is far from done. I fear it will go down to the last day which will be very stressful.

 

We have to hope Spurs only take 1-2 points from their three tough games this week, very possible. But even then they still have Burnley and Sheffield Utd which should yield 6 more points. 

 

Brighton, Liverpool, Palace isn't an easy run in, especially when we have the first two straight after European games. Palace are in ridiculously good form.

 

I suspect if we lose Tielemans and Martinez for any length of time we will finish 5th. If they are ok we should do just enough to finish 4th. It's that simple

It’s not though. Plenty of drama and twists and turns left yet.

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Here are my likely outcomes of the rest of the games for us and Spurs for the rest of the season:
Aston villa:
Brighton 1-1
Liverpool 2-2
Palace 1-1
Tottenham: Spurs goals first.
Arsenal 1-2
Chelsea 2-1
Liverpool 1-1
Burnley 3-0
Man City 1-2
SheffU 4-1

Both teams 70 points and 77-56 goal difference. If this ends up like this, which it certainly won't, then Tottenham will take fourth place in the number of goals scored in away matches between the teams. So we must have a better result than outlined. Most realistically, we take one more point. Win one of the ties and lose one, finishing with 71 points.

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Posted (edited)

Nice article on revenue from Europe, what we are going to get and what we could get, come on your gunners.

UEFA prize money: How much Champions League, Europa League and Conference League winners earn

https://www.90min.com/posts/uefa-prize-money-how-much-champions-league-europa-league-conference-league-winners-earn

Champions league payments

Prize Money

Winner £17.1m (€20m) Runners-up £13.2m (€15.5m)

Semi-finals £10.7m (€12.5m)

Quarter-finals £9.1m (€10.6m)

Round of 16 £8.2m (€9.6m)

Group stage wins £2.4m (€2.8m)

Group stage draws £794k (€930k)

Group stage participation £13.37m (€15.64m)

Europa 

Prize Money

Winner £7.3m (€8.6m)

Runners-up £3.9m (€4.6m)

Semi-finals £2.4m (€2.8m)

Quarter-finals £1.5m (€1.8m)

Round of 16 £1m (€1.2m)

Knockout round play-offs £427k (€500k)

1st in group stage £940k (€1.1m)

2nd in group stage £470k (€550k)

Group match win £538k (€630k)

Group match draw £179k (€210k)

Group stage participation £3.2m (€3.63m)

Edited by tinker
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Spurs av. Points after 32 games 1.875

If they maintain this they'll get another 12 points (rounded up to 2 ppg), so in a run of really hard fixtures, they have to over perform to be 5 points ahead of us. This would be winning 4, losing 2.

We have games we can take points in. They have arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool in the next 7 days. 

Personally I think 4 points from our final 3 will be enough.

They lose all 3 this week, it could be a sealed by next Sunday evening. 

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27 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

I feel like last night was 2 points dropped than 1 point gained. We didn't turn up and this is the confusing thing about this team: brilliant when you least expect it (Arsenal), then shite when you're expecting a big performance like last night.

 

4th is far from done. I fear it will go down to the last day which will be very stressful.

 

We have to hope Spurs only take 1-2 points from their three tough games this week, very possible. But even then they still have Burnley and Sheffield Utd which should yield 6 more points. 

 

Brighton, Liverpool, Palace isn't an easy run in, especially when we have the first two straight after European games. Palace are in ridiculously good form.

 

I suspect if we lose Tielemans and Martinez for any length of time we will finish 5th. If they are ok we should do just enough to finish 4th. It's that simple. 

But what you're effectively saying therefore is that we should be the best team in the league by quite a distance.

It would be a bit odd if we turned up at Arsenal away and also Brentford at home, Chelsea at home etc. 

We'd have cruised the league if we did that all season. 

It's really difficult to get everything right every game. 

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I think majority of people would have taken 7 pts from arsenal, bournemouth and chelsea. Also think majority of people would rather be in our position with points on the board rather than chasing.

After next weekend we should pretty much know what is required of us to secure 4th. 

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Europa league guaranteed. Finishing ahead of Manure. I think we'll finish 4th and if we don't Spurs deserve it. Still the Conference final in play. Hell of a season

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Based on pure guesswork I reckon Spurs will win 3 ,draw 1 and lose 2 of their remaining matches and will end up on 70 pts and that will be the key number of pts to beat or match if we have a better goal difference.

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14 minutes ago, Stratvillan said:

Spurs av. Points after 32 games 1.875

If they maintain this they'll get another 12 points (rounded up to 2 ppg), so in a run of really hard fixtures, they have to over perform to be 5 points ahead of us. This would be winning 4, losing 2.

We have games we can take points in. They have arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool in the next 7 days. 

Personally I think 4 points from our final 3 will be enough.

They lose all 3 this week, it could be a sealed by next Sunday evening. 

They're not going to lose all 3. Probability alone says that's unlikely, and they are spawny bastards. 

I fully expect Chelsea, after playing out of their skins against us, will revert to type and roll over for their London neighbours. Goblins, both teams.

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33 minutes ago, turvontour said:

But what you're effectively saying therefore is that we should be the best team in the league by quite a distance.

It would be a bit odd if we turned up at Arsenal away and also Brentford at home, Chelsea at home etc. 

We'd have cruised the league if we did that all season. 

It's really difficult to get everything right every game. 

I think it’s more the performance I’m getting at. 28% possession at home and looking like a championship team against a premier league team was very disappointing given the week we’d had to prepare for the game. Emery keeps saying he wants us to control the ball, keep possession, beat the press, be brave, but we didn’t do any of that last night and just reverted to hoof ball up to Watkins which doesn’t work because Ollie never wins anything in the air against central defenders. 
 

I think Arsenal aside, we haven’t really played well in many games the last few weeks and that’s the disappointing thing because I really enjoy watching us at our best and it seems so few and far between at the moment.

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3 hours ago, rodders129 said:

I think some of the wild overreactions are being driven by a feverish desperation to qualify for the UCL on the basis that it’s the promised land and will suddenly transform the club and and team into a title chasing outfit.

Qualifying one year for the UCL is not a magic bullet. We have living proof this season from Newcastle.

The way we transform this club is by getting behind Unai and the lads for every game and enjoying the process/challenge. The players and staff will learn and level up as they go. There’s no rush here. Of course I want us to hit 4th this season but if we’re in Europa we should be grateful and there are upsides. It’s another great opportunity for a European trophy next season and a great learning experience. Im so glad we’ve had conference this year as preparation.

UCL is the promised land, without a doubt. Of course qualifying once and then never again is not the magic bullet, as Newcastle is an example of.

UCL provides massive prize money, more exposure that provides more lucrative sponsorship deals, more worldwide fans that increases merchandise sales. All that resulting in more revenue for the club, that if invested wisely can result in better players and improved results.

If we qualify for UCL this year, it is the first small step towards a better future for the club. The next step would be to qualify for UCL next season too, and then the season after that and so on. If we do that we will at some point have the revenue and squad capable of chasing titles.

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