NeilS Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 54 minutes ago, villan95 said: It would have been nice if England had got that extra spot as a safety net but there's no point worrying too much about things out of your control. All we can control is our own results so just need to concentrate on beating Bournemouth (after Lille of course) This is my mindset on it as well, we can only control our own destiny and if we qualify this season we will have truely deserved and earned it. We cannot rely on others to help us out along the way we have to do our own job first and foremost. Unai is a winner and is breeding that mentality here with his no excuses culture, so I doubt he is focusing too much on the other English teams failing and making life harder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, juanpablosaliceband said: We are actually 75% for top 4. Not 66. And definitely not 51. We're 1/2 or 1.5 in betting which is a 67% chance. Are you getting a probability from Opta or implied by betting odds? Edited April 18 by CVByrne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YLN Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, duke313 said: England were over 75% to secure an extra CL spot at one point. A lot can change, I wouldn't lean too much on those %. Those percentages are such nonsense. They're totally ignorant of probabilities. I've been blocked by some of those accounts on twitter for pointing it out. They change drastically on one result which means they have created a probability on some assumptions but if they are wrong in their assumption, the entire probability % changes. The likelihood of the assumption being wrong should be factored into the percentage, rather than if arsenal win then the percent we quoted is accurate. If they don't win, essentially we have to completely recalculate the probability because the previous probability assumed they would win and made no allowance for the possibility that they wouldn't. It's nonsense pseudostats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 22 minutes ago, CVByrne said: We're 1/2 or 1.5 in betting which is a 67% chance. Are you getting a probability from Opta or implied by betting odds? Betting odds aren’t the probability of anything tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 18 VT Supporter Share Posted April 18 2 hours ago, Wainy316 said: Gun to your bum... Win tonight or win Sunday, dun dun dun! I'm going tonight, give me a goddam trophy! Trophy every time for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Stevo985 Posted April 18 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: Having lived through so much pain for Villa wanting CL so much and making it donor die was stressing me out to no end. Being defeatist is a way of avoiding the pain of failure. But what is failure? I think we are now a top 8 side and we can compete for trophies and CL places and win any football game against any side. If we end 7th one season and 5th and get CL another as long as we can be sustainable and compete isn't that success? So by that metric this season is a success a resounding one. Nothing that can happen over the final games of the season can really change that One I look at it from that perspective life isn't as stressful and every game doesn't bring agonising levels of nerves and stress. Whoever organised your intervention deserves a medal 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: Having lived through so much pain for Villa wanting CL so much and making it donor die was stressing me out to no end. Being defeatist is a way of avoiding the pain of failure. But what is failure? I think we are now a top 8 side and we can compete for trophies and CL places and win any football game against any side. If we end 7th one season and 5th and get CL another as long as we can be sustainable and compete isn't that success? So by that metric this season is a success a resounding one. Nothing that can happen over the final games of the season can really change that One I look at it from that perspective life isn't as stressful and every game doesn't bring agonising levels of nerves and stress. Fair play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Steve Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: Having lived through so much pain for Villa wanting CL so much and making it donor die was stressing me out to no end. Being defeatist is a way of avoiding the pain of failure. But what is failure? I think we are now a top 8 side and we can compete for trophies and CL places and win any football game against any side. If we end 7th one season and 5th and get CL another as long as we can be sustainable and compete isn't that success? So by that metric this season is a success a resounding one. Nothing that can happen over the final games of the season can really change that One I look at it from that perspective life isn't as stressful and every game doesn't bring agonising levels of nerves and stress. Appreciate the honesty in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 49 minutes ago, YLN said: Those percentages are such nonsense. They're totally ignorant of probabilities. I've been blocked by some of those accounts on twitter for pointing it out. They change drastically on one result which means they have created a probability on some assumptions but if they are wrong in their assumption, the entire probability % changes. The likelihood of the assumption being wrong should be factored into the percentage, rather than if arsenal win then the percent we quoted is accurate. If they don't win, essentially we have to completely recalculate the probability because the previous probability assumed they would win and made no allowance for the possibility that they wouldn't. It's nonsense pseudostats There's a 75% you're onto something there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: Having lived through so much pain for Villa wanting CL so much and making it donor die was stressing me out to no end. Being defeatist is a way of avoiding the pain of failure. But what is failure? I think we are now a top 8 side and we can compete for trophies and CL places and win any football game against any side. If we end 7th one season and 5th and get CL another as long as we can be sustainable and compete isn't that success? So by that metric this season is a success a resounding one. Nothing that can happen over the final games of the season can really change that One I look at it from that perspective life isn't as stressful and every game doesn't bring agonising levels of nerves and stress. Enrique said it in the lead up to PSG/Barcelona but I think Unai have also said something along the same sentiments and what you said above. Pressure is not winning against Lille or Bournemouth. Pressure is going to work 7 days a week and not having to get sick to make sure you don't miss any days. Lille, Bournemouth, a trophy, UCL - all of this is just opportunity and one I think Unai and the boys will rise to meet. Edited April 18 by DJBOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 3 hours ago, Wainy316 said: Gun to your bum... Win tonight or win Sunday, dun dun dun! I'm going tonight, give me a goddam trophy! Win Sunday for me, probably just because we're at the QF stage though. If it was trophy or 4th though I think I'm going trophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 18 VT Supporter Share Posted April 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, YLN said: Those percentages are such nonsense. They're totally ignorant of probabilities. I've been blocked by some of those accounts on twitter for pointing it out. They change drastically on one result which means they have created a probability on some assumptions but if they are wrong in their assumption, the entire probability % changes. The likelihood of the assumption being wrong should be factored into the percentage, rather than if arsenal win then the percent we quoted is accurate. If they don't win, essentially we have to completely recalculate the probability because the previous probability assumed they would win and made no allowance for the possibility that they wouldn't. It's nonsense pseudostats I don't know how they calculated or assumed the probabilities but there's nothing wrong with the odds changing after more events have taken place. It was unlikely, by anyone's definition, for all of Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool (effectively, or this is, say, a 90-95% chance just after the first leg) to go out but now that's (almost) happened the current chances of 5th place going to England reflect that. Equally it's unlikely that all three German teams get hammered in their SF 1st legs, but if that happens and we're through tonight (more likely) then the odds will swing back in England's favour somewhat. There's a 25% chance that you'll toss a coin twice and get tails both times, but if the first result is tails then you're now at a 50% chance. That's not re-calculating the probabilities. Edited April 18 by fightoffyour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 59 minutes ago, YLN said: Those percentages are such nonsense. They're totally ignorant of probabilities. I've been blocked by some of those accounts on twitter for pointing it out. They change drastically on one result which means they have created a probability on some assumptions but if they are wrong in their assumption, the entire probability % changes. The likelihood of the assumption being wrong should be factored into the percentage, rather than if arsenal win then the percent we quoted is accurate. If they don't win, essentially we have to completely recalculate the probability because the previous probability assumed they would win and made no allowance for the possibility that they wouldn't. It's nonsense pseudostats No you aren't understanding them. Of course the probabilities have a massive slide when an unexpected outcome occurs. If you have a 60% chance to win a game and you lose it. 60% of the previous calculation is written off. These calculations will basically be like running 10k simulations of the season, then saying how many times X happens. 1st the quality of teams obviously isn't 100% accurate, 2jd it's very hard to factor in matchups for various teams in football especially, 3rd its hard to evaluate a coaches ability to gameplan for an individual opponent. All these factors lead to the evaluation of quality being off a little bit before the simulation and then that compounds massively when you sre simulating a dose teams. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 One game at time. Lille will have a big crowd and have to go for it. I'm no tactician, but Unai will have a plan. Sod the performance/result, just get through. Dougie needs a big big performance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 I have so much enjoyed the mind-stretching and abstruse discussions here about coefficients and I came here today distraught that last night’s real world results have reduced the issue to irrelevant rubble. However, I am encouraged that we have now moved on to an exciting debate about probabilities, so this thread can go on helping me to study for my advanced maths A Level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 18 VT Supporter Share Posted April 18 2 minutes ago, briny_ear said: I have so much enjoyed the mind-stretching and abstruse discussions here about coefficients and I came here today distraught that last night’s real world results have reduced the issue to irrelevant rubble. However, I am encouraged that we have now moved on to an exciting debate about probabilities, so this thread can go on helping me to study for my advanced maths A Level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 hours ago, CVByrne said: Having lived through so much pain for Villa wanting CL so much and making it do or die was stressing me out to no end. Being defeatist is a way of avoiding the pain of failure. But what is failure? I think we are now a top 8 side and we can compete for trophies and CL places and win any football game against any side. If we end 7th one season and 5th and get CL another as long as we can be sustainable and compete isn't that success? So by that metric this season is a success a resounding one. Nothing that can happen over the final games of the season can really change that Once I look at it from that perspective life isn't as stressful and every game doesn't bring agonising levels of nerves and stress. Am I right guys?! RIGHT?! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 hours ago, CVByrne said: Having lived through so much pain for Villa wanting CL so much and making it do or die was stressing me out to no end. Being defeatist is a way of avoiding the pain of failure. But what is failure? I think we are now a top 8 side and we can compete for trophies and CL places and win any football game against any side. If we end 7th one season and 5th and get CL another as long as we can be sustainable and compete isn't that success? So by that metric this season is a success a resounding one. Nothing that can happen over the final games of the season can really change that Once I look at it from that perspective life isn't as stressful and every game doesn't bring agonising levels of nerves and stress. Glad you’ve found peace. Also remember it’s only a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 8 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Also remember it’s only a game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juanpablosaliceband Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 hours ago, CVByrne said: We're 1/2 or 1.5 in betting which is a 67% chance. Are you getting a probability from Opta or implied by betting odds? I originally said 66% based on 1/2 or 4/9 betting odds. But then saw Opta have us at 75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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