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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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I did the hypothetical predictor table this afternoon and feeling a little more confident when you go through the other fixtures.

I'm probably going to be caned for this, but I think it might be too far for Manure and by the time we get to week 32 if we can stay in front of Spurs, they literally have the top 3 teams from memory within a 3-4 week period (Newcastle away, Man City home, Arsenal home, Liverpool away) and will allow us to open up a gap, which they may find difficult to close.

If we can get 7-9 points from next 3 games....will start to get exciting.

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We need to go back to being formidable at home after losing 2 on the bounce. There was always concerns about our away form but we actually have the 4th best away record in the league.

Edited by Vive_La_Villa
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4 hours ago, Keyblade said:

Even with our bad run though, we'd still finish 5th assuming we played like this for the rest of the season. We'd have to be considerably worse to mess this up.

I'm used to have nice things taken away with Villa.

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5 hours ago, QldVilla said:

I do think Emery may play a weakened team in the Conference League, Top 5 would be the clubs priority, especially now with Kamara out. It’s going to be a great ride.

He won't, and he definitely shouldn't. 

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11 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said:

Huge game coming up for Utd against Luton. Hopefully they lose it, that would give us more space. 
If we can win next game while Utd and Spurs lose some points it would give us a chance to have more focus as well in the UECL. 
Let’s take it one at a time, Nottingham has improved lately hopefully we can beat them and win again at home. 

As we saw yesterday, PGMOL will never allow it. They’ll do everything they can to ensure United win.

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13 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It wasn’t the Man U game so much. That was actually really encouraging and gave many belief we’d make top 4. It was more the Kamara injury that put fans on a real downer.. 

Agree some of the reactions have been way over the top though.  

We won loads of games when he was injured at this point last season though?

Pau and Konsa out hurt us more than Kamara missing as good a player as he is. Not like McGinn and Luiz are 20 year old kids, they are top class premier league and international players so they'll just have to modify their games slightly for the good of the team in the run in and it worked fine against a good Fulham midfield.

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4 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

As I’ve said a few times, the maths says United need 9/14 wins to catch us if we carry on with the same PPT as we have now. 

With their GD they need 71 points to feel very confident of finishing above us and Spurs as 70-71 points is the usual range for 4th (a few points less for 5th).

So if we think Man. City will likely beat them and they'll struggle to beat either Liverpool or Arsenal at home in the run in with those two having serious chances of winning the league then they effectively need to win most of their other games, draws are pretty much no good for them now. They also have Brighton away on the final day who will probably still be in contention for europa league and they have an excellent prem record v Man. United in last few years.

They've still got a chance obviously but feels they're one bad performance away from things collapsing again for them, would be good if Man. City stick 3 or 4 past them like they usually do just to see how the react to that.

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3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

We need to go back to being formidable at home after losing 2 on the bounce. There was always concerns about our away form but we actually have the 4th best away record in the league.

I think that's a great example of people going OTT to find ways to criticise us.

We received bad defeats at Newcastle and Liverpool but in reality hardly anyone gets anything at Anfield and up to xmas Newcastle also won majority of their home games. To me the only poor away defeat of the season in terms of league position was Forest.

Our away form bar the terrible second half on Boxing day has been very good now and when people were fawning over other teams getting away wins at Sheffield United and Fulham earlier in the season it's balancing out nicely now as we are playing and beating those teams ourselves.

We can certainly win another 2-3 away games with what we have left which would ease the pressure a bit on our home games.

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2 hours ago, John said:

It's in our own hands now, if we can discount referees and VAR.

Premier League will give us a points deduction at the end of the season to fix it 😂

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6 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

With their GD they need 71 points to feel very confident of finishing above us and Spurs as 70-71 points is the usual range for 4th (a few points less for 5th).

So if we think Man. City will likely beat them and they'll struggle to beat either Liverpool or Arsenal at home in the run in with those two having serious chances of winning the league then they effectively need to win most of their other games, draws are pretty much no good for them now. They also have Brighton away on the final day who will probably still be in contention for europa league and they have an excellent prem record v Man. United in last few years.

They've still got a chance obviously but feels they're one bad performance away from things collapsing again for them, would be good if Man. City stick 3 or 4 past them like they usually do just to see how the react to that.

And United's underlying figures have been getting worse and worse as the season goes on. Understat's xPts table from December onwards is honestly pretty grim for them.

image.thumb.png.2118864e7a08ab1af8ef1cb588f11269.png

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3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

He won't, and he definitely shouldn't. 

 

41 minutes ago, Stephen_Evans said:

15 years ago we were 4th with 13 games to go, as we are now.  I feel much more confident this time round.

A strange parallel. Wasn't this when MON decided to throw the European comp in favour of 'concentrating' on top 4? We go all out for both under Don Unai, as we know. Took only 15 years to rectify!

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48 minutes ago, wishywashy said:

And United's underlying figures have been getting worse and worse as the season goes on. Understat's xPts table from December onwards is honestly pretty grim for them.

image.thumb.png.2118864e7a08ab1af8ef1cb588f11269.png

I bet you they will get a lot of decisions go their way in the tight games. The powers that be will want United in the champions league.

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