Musk's Twitter Purchase

[Chindie]

4 minutes ago, villa89 said:

A company that basically makes no profit but is worth billions....am I describing Twitter or Tesla? It's both. 

In both cases there's reasons why they could be worth a lot of money even though they don't make profits, the tech behind them, the size/weight of the business in their fields etc, the issue is more that they are valued at prices that are absurdly high for that technology. And in Twitter's case it's... not really a business you're buying, realistically. It has a lot of value as A Thing, but that value isn't translatable to profits.

[HKP90]

I've said before that Musk's biggest asset, that he never takes no for an answer from his staff, and thinks in a childlike way- no compromise,  no pragmatism, is his biggest weakness, and will be his undoing. In the real world people want to be treated with respect, and rewarded for their enterprise. Hard Place, meet Rock.

[mjmooney]

57 minutes ago, villa89 said:

As for Twitface no doubt a new version will appear that is basically the exact same as the old one and people will migrate. Wouldn't be surprised if Meta is working on something already. 

Mastodon. 

[Genie]

30 minutes ago, ender4 said:

 

 

I wonder how much he asked for as a 1 day contractor rate when Elon was begging him on the phone to come back and sort out access to HQ building!

$10k? $50k? $100k?

 

I assume as he’s bad mouthing him in Twitter he declined to help.

[Genie]

25 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

I've said before that Musk's biggest asset, that he never takes no for an answer from his staff, and thinks in a childlike way- no compromise,  no pragmatism, is his biggest weakness, and will be his undoing. In the real world people want to be treated with respect, and rewarded for their enterprise. Hard Place, meet Rock.

Any sensible CEO will tell you they surround themselves with people cleverer than they are and take their views on board. 

Musk is the exact opposite. He immediately gets rid of the good people he sees as threats and gets left with the useless shit that can’t get anything better.

[OutByEaster?]

43 minutes ago, bickster said:

Agreed but it also has significant dips in share price around the time a) Musk made his original offer for Twitter and b) when he was forced to accept it. Yes Tesla is vastly over-priced but some of the recent losses are also down to the Twitter fiasco

I think to an extent that Tesla's overvaluation is based on the Musk effect - the idea that he's an incredible genius - that's his skill, to build a legend that despite having very little fact behind it means that he can add immediate value to ideas and companies that are otherwise barely viable - and by bringing that to the table he can secure investment, inflate share value and make money for financiers. It's a snake oil economy.

I agree with you on the above, but I think it might be better expressed as "Yes Tesla is vastly over-priced but some of the recent losses are also down to the Musk fiasco" - Tesla is less affected by the impact of Musk on Twitter than it is by the impact of Twitter on Musk - if he accidentally exposes himself as a lucky chancer, Tesla, whose share value is largely based on him being a messianic genius is in a heap of trouble.

[LondonLax]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think to an extent that Tesla's overvaluation is based on the Musk effect - the idea that he's an incredible genius - that's his skill, to build a legend that despite having very little fact behind it means that he can add immediate value to ideas and companies that are on otherwise barely viable - and by bringing that to the table he can secure investment, inflate share value and make money for financiers. It's a snake oil economy.

I agree with you on the above, but I think it might be better expressed as "Yes Tesla is vastly over-priced but some of the recent losses are also down to the Musk fiasco" - Tesla is less affected by the impact of Musk on Twitter than it is by the impact of Twitter on Musk - if he accidentally exposes himself as a lucky chancer, Tesla, whose share value is largely based on him being a messianic genius is in a heap of trouble.

Tesla’s value is due to them being the closest company to realising the dream of a self driving vehicle, and then patenting that technology. 

Every Tesla car on the road continuously video tapes every journey from various angles and metrics and sends that data back to head office to add to the database required to be built up for self driving to work. They are essentially crowdsourcing the knowledge required to have an AI driven car. 

If they manage to crack it and license it to other operators the current stock price will seem like a bargain. 

[bickster]

Just now, OutByEaster? said:

I think to an extent that Tesla's overvaluation is based on the Musk effect - the idea that he's an incredible genius - that's his skill, to build a legend that despite having very little fact behind it means that he can add immediate value to ideas and companies that are on otherwise barely viable - and by bringing that to the table he can secure investment, inflate share value and make money for financiers. It's a snake oil economy.

I agree with you on the above, but I think it might be better expressed as "Yes Tesla is vastly over-priced but some of the recent losses are also down to the Musk fiasco" - Tesla is less affected by the impact of Musk on Twitter than it is by the impact of Twitter on Musk - if he accidentally exposes himself as a lucky chancer, Tesla, whose share value is largely based on him being a messianic genius is in a heap of trouble.

Hmm that's not quite it either. It's a valid point but there are other factors too

With Tesla people were/are gambling on the future tech of self driving cars and Tesla were at one point seen as the market leader in EVs

The end point of SDCs is a lot further away than those gambling on that realised plus there are more players in that game than previously.

On the EV point, the traditional vehicle manufacturers have caught up by a big distance and a tesla is now essentially an overpriced status symbol of a car with little sign of future models at the correct price point going to emerge. Teslas are the equivalent of MacBooks right now

[KentVillan]

5 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Tesla’s value is due to them being the closest company to realising the dream of a self driving vehicle, and then patenting that technology. 

Every Tesla car on the road continuously video tapes every journey from various angles and metrics and sends that data back to head office to add to the database required to be built up for self driving to work. They are essentially crowdsourcing the knowledge required to have an AI driven car. 

If they manage to crack it and license it to other operators the current stock price will seem like a bargain. 

That’s horse shit, though, tbh. They’re only the “nearest” because Musk makes wild claims about their progress.

“AI” (more accurately, machine learning or automation) in other fields hasn’t worked in the way described. It tends to be multiple research groups / businesses / organisations making progress at similar times, and the commercial value is in how you package it up.

The TSLA price pump isn’t that different from crypto. Yes there’s a real technological thing underlying it all, but the stories told about it are largely BS, and it’s fuelled by a lot of delusion, mania, and outright fraud.

Twitter is actually a good illustration of how Musk operates. People are much more familiar with Twitter than they are with self driving cars, so the fantasy is a tougher sell for him, and it fails in real time.

Edited November 18, 2022 by KentVillan

[OutByEaster?]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

On the EV point, the traditional vehicle manufacturers have caught up by a big distance and a tesla is now essentially an overpriced status symbol of a car with little sign of future models at the correct price point going to emerge. Teslas are the equivalent of MacBooks right now

Absolutely, and I think like Steve Jobs and that period of Mac-ness, the whole culture and celebrity CEO thing created a bubble. Musk is a bubble for Tesla and Twitter might be pricking him at exactly the time that the more sensible players are developing into the areas he trumpeted.

[LondonLax]

3 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

That’s horse shit, though, tbh. They’re only the “nearest” because Musk makes wild claims about their progress.

“AI” (more accurately, machine learning or automation) in other fields hasn’t worked in the way described. It tends to be multiple research groups / businesses / organisations making progress at similar times, and the commercial value is in how you package it up.

The TSLA price pump isn’t that different from crypto. Yes there’s a real technological thing underlying it all, but the stories told about it are largely BS, and it’s fuelled by a lot of delusion, mania, and outright fraud.

Twitter is actually a good illustration of how Musk operates. People are much more familiar with Twitter than they are with self driving cars, so the fantasy is a tougher sell for him, and it fails in real time.

You could say Tesla is a data analytics company that happens to make cars. 

Not only do their cars collect video data but all driving metrics are recorded, every movement of the wheel, every touch of the brakes etc. All with the intention of building an AI model that replaces human drivers. 

Their in car version of Siri/Alexa also records conversations and phone calls etc for the potential to target products and advertising. 

There’s no other car maker who does anything like this at the moment. 

I absolutely agree their stock got pumped up with the pandemic tech bubble (and has unwound again now it’s popped) but their stock hype was based on their potential as an analytics company rather than as a car manufacturer. 

[KentVillan]

16 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

You could say Tesla is a data analytics company that happens to make cars. 

Not only do their cars collect video data but all driving metrics are recorded, every movement of the wheel, every touch of the brakes etc. All with the intention of building an AI model that replaces human drivers. 

Their in car version of Siri/Alexa also records conversations and phone calls etc for the potential to target products and advertising. 

There’s no other car maker who does anything like this at the moment. 

I absolutely agree their stock got pumped up with the pandemic tech bubble (and has unwound again now it’s popped) but their stock hype was based on their potential as an analytics company rather than as a car manufacturer. 

My point is this whole “we have the best data” thing hasn’t worked for a ton of “AI”-driven companies. The idea that “data is the new oil” has been thoroughly discredited, and usually these turn out to be engineering / logistics / commercialisation problems rather than data problems.

It’s also not that easy to patent a lot of it.

Established car manufacturers will hire ex-Tesla staff and will collect similar data, and it won’t take them as long, because catching up is always easier than innovating. Then all their other commercial advantages start to kick in.

Think of Tesla as the Yahoo or Altavista. There will be a Google.

Plus, bringing it back on topic, Tesla is now massively exposed to all this Twitter debt and to whatever happens to Musk’s reputation after this car crash (pun intended) has played out.

Edited November 18, 2022 by KentVillan

[bickster]

Just now, KentVillan said:

My point is this whole “we have the best data” thing hasn’t worked for a ton of “AI”-driven companies. The idea that “data is the new oil” has been thoroughly discredited, and usually these turn out to be engineering / logistics / commercialisation problems rather than data problems.

It’s also not that easy to patent a lot of it.

Established car manufacturers will hire ex-Tesla staff and will collect similar data, and it won’t take them as long, because catching up is always easier than innovating. Then all their other commercial advantages start to kick in.

Think of Tesla as the Yahoo or Altavista. There will be a Google.

Add into that mix that it eventually gets regulated. I'd imagine it would get included in GDPR2 for sure

I'd be interested to see how a test case in the EU goes for GDPR / CCTV, I suspect Tesla would lose. It just needs someone to pull the trigger.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

My point is this whole “we have the best data” thing hasn’t worked for a ton of “AI”-driven companies. The idea that “data is the new oil” has been thoroughly discredited, and usually these turn out to be engineering / logistics / commercialisation problems rather than data problems.

It’s also not that easy to patent a lot of it.

Established car manufacturers will hire ex-Tesla staff and will collect similar data, and it won’t take them as long, because catching up is always easier than innovating. Then all their other commercial advantages start to kick in.

Think of Tesla as the Yahoo or Altavista. There will be a Google.

Plus, bringing it back on topic, Tesla is now massively exposed to all this Twitter debt and to whatever happens to Musk’s reputation after this car crash (pun intended) has played out.

That’s fine, that analysis what stock buying is about. Maybe they will make it work, maybe they won’t etc

I was more pitching my comment at the people commenting that their stock is overvalued compared with other car manufacturers based on fleet sales etc, which it absolutely is if they were just a regular car manufacturer. 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

That’s fine, that analysis what stock buying is about. Maybe they will make it work, maybe they won’t etc

I was more pitching my comment at the people commenting that their stock is overvalued compared with other car manufacturers based on fleet sales etc, which it absolutely is if they were just a regular car manufacturer. 

Well as I think that was me and only me, It's nice that you ignored ALL the other reasons I also said were reasons they were overvalued, it was one part of quite a few reasons.

[Wainy316]

3 hours ago, mjmooney said:

Mastodon. 

Pterodactyl

Triceratops

Sabre-Toothed Tiger

TYRANNOSAURUS!

[Wainy316]

I'd love Twitter to go down the pan and disappear.

1. To stick it to Musk and 2. because I have a mild addiction to it and feel it adversely affects my quality of life/use of time.

[sne]

1 minute ago, Wainy316 said:

Pterodactyl

Triceratops

Sabre-Toothed Tiger

TYRANNOSAURUS!

Where strides the Behemoth?

[KentVillan]

30 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

I'd love Twitter to go down the pan and disappear.

1. To stick it to Musk and 2. because I have a mild addiction to it and feel it adversely affects my quality of life/use of time.

Same same. Screen usage stats on my phone are bleak

[tomav84]