James Ward-Prowse

[KangarooVillan]

22 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Exhibit A. We all know Nakamba is horrible on the ball, yet somehow his short/medium range passing isn't half as atrocious statistically as you would think. How we go about interpreting that data and amalgamating it with the eye test is where the magic happens.

We also know that people are subject to bias or prevailing narratives based on what they read on here.

Nakamba isn’t horrible on the ball - his passing stats are fine and he rarely gets dispossessed (Ndidi, Bissouma, Doucoure all get dispossessed more).

He is limited on the ball though, with his passing range very limited and his ability to dribble the ball forward also fairly poor.

[tonyh29]

2 minutes ago, John said:

I think we would get him for a lot less, after all he is 43 now... 

I remember HDE once said that he had matched an £11m Chelsea bid for Frank, he had waited until the player had signed his contract before he had put that bid in though, just to be 100% sure that he would not actually have had to find the £11m.   

OT - rumour seems to be we offered £15m for Lampard and Kanoute  , no idea what Kanoute's value was at that time though  , but West Ham rejected the bid 

[villabromsgrove]

I've watched JWP many times and imo he is a better centre mid than any we currently have, which is why I'd like us to sign him. Stat's are a useful indicator, but I agree with D_D_I_D that the "eye test" is important. JWP is a Duracell bunny who presses the opposition to death. He's a vocal leader who tries to lift the players around him and he always gives 100%.

Where on the stats list do you find these abilities measured and collated?

[Laughable Chimp]

23 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Except to say that once we watched those players in a Villa shirt, we quickly realised that Bertrand Traore wasn't fast and Ross Barkley had less bite than yer nan after she has plonked her teeth in the glass.

I was guilty of falling for the narrative around Barkley myself, despite his physicality I had never really noticed him having 'bite' in the past, but enough people were saying it that I thought it must be true to some extent. It was never in the numbers either. 

But surely, it's possible for people who watch these players regularly to fall for these narratives? In the same way it's possible for fanbases to collectively underrate or overrate players despite watching them play regularly. As what likely happened with Traore and the Lyon fans.

Its hard for me to come up with an example with our current fanbase, what about Wesley being a shot creator? I went off a couple of weeks ago at someone saying that he created chances for other players. It was a common argument for Wesley back when he was playing for us. I didn't have access to resources like fbref at the time, but I never bought into it.

Having access to these resources now, the statistical evidence show that not to be true in the slightest. In fact, he was exceptionally poor at creating chances for other people by every metric yet quite a few people with running with this argument despite regularly watching him. It's cases like this that make me think, we really can so easily be deceived by narratives about players or being made to believe what we want to believe. It's so easy for our opinions to be influenced by the opinions of others or prevailing narratives. 

Look, I don't think me and you are of that different in opinion. Perhaps where we both differ most is that I sincerely do not trust the subjective perceptions of people, even my own. They're far too easily swayed and biased by factors that we may not even be aware off. And without that, all I'm left with is the stats which is why I put so much value into them and want to be able to extract as much insight as possible from them. They're exact and tractable. They don't care about prevailing narratives and should be neutral. 

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Laughable Chimp

[tomsky_11]

39 minutes ago, KangarooVillan said:

I see your point, but both Nakamba and Dougie have %’s for short and medium passes basically at 90% and that doesn’t stop a fair chunk of this forum moaning about it...

Difference to Nakamba is several things:

• volume - Nakamba almost half the live ball passes per 90 that JWP attempts. (Luiz about 2/3s.) Obviously part of this is system and player utilisation within that system, but suggests JWP perhaps more trusted with the ball and more capable of more intensive passing game
• area of passing - JWP is operating in forward areas a lot more than Nakamba, which presumably brings greater risk when passing. JWP makes progressive passes 4 times more than Nakamba, excluding set pieces passes into final 1/3 twice as much and into the 18yard box more than Luiz (Nakamba didn't do this at all last season apparently!)
• completion - Yes Nakamba is around 90% for short and medium passing but he's still worse than JWP (90.3% and 90.4% vs. 88.4% and 89.2%) Coupled with the fact JWP is passing more often and in more advanced positions I can see why these two players might be viewed differently

Luiz and JWP actually look pretty similar passing wise, apart from JWP being more involved. Though I've not seen so much issue with Luiz passing on the forum or elsewhere as with Nakamba.

I think I've said before on here that what we probably want is a hybrid of Luiz and Nakamba, with the former's passing and ability in possession and the latter's defensive work. JWP is a tick on the passing side, though a bit weaker on the dribbles and carries side of things. On the defensive side, here's the comparison:

So JWP less involved defensively than Nakamba (and maybe similar to Luiz? More tackles, clearances and interceptions but fewer blocks and pressures) but appears to be more successful on the whole when he does get involved - greater pressure success 32.9% vs 29.8% (Luiz 25.9%), greater team possession won per tackle 68% vs 61% and only marginally off Nakamba in terms of success against the dribble 39.2% vs 40.0% (Luiz 29.5%).

Feels like he could be an ok fit for that Nakamba-Luiz hybrid type I think we could do with, with the added bonus of his set pieces.

[theboyangel]

If we do go for him, I’m guessing we’d try and use JWP similarly to how Liverpool use(d) Henderson in a midfield three?

Hes certainly got the mobility and arguably a better passing range.

I really like him as a player and thought he was desperately unlucky not to make the final 25 for the Euros squad.

I get why people look at cheaper foreign signings but I think Smith wants a player who can slot into the starting XI straight away with no language barrier and vast experience of the league.
 

If the club want him, I’m all for it. 

[catanzaro]

25 minutes ago, villabromsgrove said:

I've watched JWP many times and imo he is a better centre mid than any we currently have, which is why I'd like us to sign him. Stat's are a useful indicator, but I agree with D_D_I_D that the "eye test" is important. JWP is a Duracell bunny who presses the opposition to death. He's a vocal leader who tries to lift the players around him and he always gives 100%.

Where on the stats list do you find these abilities measured and collated?

I'm based in Southampton and I've seen him on multiple occaisions at St Mary's over many years. I totally agree with this assessment.

[jimmygreaves]

Not sure if this has been mentioned before but... If we want to be perceived as a big club with big club aspirations we need to be making statement signings like JWP. £50 million signings need to become a business as usual thing for us. 

When we're at that level better players and, more importantly, better sponsors will want to be part of the project.

We need more statement signings confident they'll contribute from their first game and, over time, fewer signings with potential.

[tomsky_11]

14 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Its hard for me to come up with an example with our current fanbase, what about Wesley being a shot creator? I went off a couple of weeks ago at someone saying that he created chances for other players. It was a common argument for Wesley back when he was playing for us. I didn't have access to resources like fbref at the time, but I never bought into it.

Having access to these resources now, the statistical evidence show that not to be true in the slightest. In fact, he was exceptionally poor at creating chances for other people by every metric yet quite a few people with running with this argument despite regularly watching him. It's cases like this that make me think, we really can so easily be deceived by narratives about players or being made to believe what we want to believe. It's so easy for our opinions to be influenced by the opinions of others or prevailing narratives.

I think to be fair the Wesley being someone who created chances for others comes from his time at Brugge rather than his time at Villa. 0.2 assists per 90 not terrible when also getting almost 0.4 goals per 90, as he did his last season in Belgium. Also he appeared to be used slightly differently there, seemingly operating deeper than the target man type of role he had for us.

[DaveAV1]

31 minutes ago, villabromsgrove said:

I've watched JWP many times and imo he is a better centre mid than any we currently have, which is why I'd like us to sign him. Stat's are a useful indicator, but I agree with D_D_I_D that the "eye test" is important. JWP is a Duracell bunny who presses the opposition to death. He's a vocal leader who tries to lift the players around him and he always gives 100%.

Where on the stats list do you find these abilities measured and collated?

I think it’s underestimated how much store our recruitment place on character. I don’t just mean stuff like you’ve mentioned, although those attributes are very important, I mean getting on with colleagues too. Not just the good laugh type like Micha Richards, the most expensive stand up comedian of all time, I mean how they bond, understand each other as people and as players. Because that sort of interaction, at times almost a sort of telepathy, can make a good team a great team. 

[sne]

19 minutes ago, jimmygreaves said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned before but... If we want to be perceived as a big club with big club aspirations we need to be making statement signings like JWP. £50 million signings need to become a business as usual thing for us. 

When we're at that level better players and, more importantly, better sponsors will want to be part of the project.

We need more statement signings confident they'll contribute from their first game and, over time, fewer signings with potential.

We also need to start earning enough money so that signings like that would be financially responsible.

Spending twice as much on JWP than Leicester did on Soumaré doesn't make us a big club. I'd say it makes us reckless IMO.

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by sne

[Midfielder]

5 minutes ago, theboyangel said:

If we do go for him, I’m guessing we’d try and use JWP similarly to how Liverpool use(d) Henderson in a midfield three?

Hes certainly got the mobility and arguably a better passing range.

I really like him as a player and thought he was desperately unlucky not to make the final 25 for the Euros squad.

I get why people look at cheaper foreign signings but I think Smith wants a player who can slot into the starting XI straight away with no language barrier and vast experience of the league.
 

If the club want him, I’m all for it. 

I agree with this too. I also think £50m is way over the odds for JWP and the potential resale value should we ever need to sell or if by then, further down the line, if we ever did break into the top 6, we may even find we need better than JWP in... then we could take a huge hit on the resale. Or... he could bed in and be the next Milner / longevity and give many years consistent output. He's their captain and as essential to them in some ways as Grealish was for us.

They can set whatever price they want, to compensate themselves for losing such a massive player, or, to put us off bidding again. Something, or someone, in this case is only worth what the other party is willing to spend in some cases. With JWP, I think it is clearly the player the manager wants, but, Southampton clearly don't want to sell etc, but the player may want the move. It's a hard thing to do, to instigate the move as a club captain. Look at the mess Kane has made of it. 

That game at VP last season, he was so annoying, he got everything right. When he stepped up to take those free kicks I shat me pants, I knew they were going in. £50m is ridiculous. Maybe we could get cheaper, if it was £40m that's still uneasy with me. But, then, we need goals from everywhere we can get them and this guy is a set piece master. Grealish used to win us a lot of free kicks but the trickyness of Buendia and Bailey added to Ollie and Ingsy now, we could still do with someone to chip in with goals from set pieces. We have Austin McPhee now too who hopefully would work magic with JWP. And while of course he has way more than converting set pieces in his locker, he is one of those steady pros. Someone up a few posts said about he does the simple things well and that against Watford that was evidently missing.

£50m is way too much, but I would like JWP at the club. And while that figure is outrageous to me, 1- its not coming from my bank account and 2- what if he was that piece of the jigsaw that low-key clicked it together. Personally I want to see Sanson given an extended run too, but, he is one knock from us being back to square one. 

We seem to be fine with adding bonuses on to deals so if this ever happened I am sure it would be a hypothetical £50m and closer to being £38/40m ish in the S/T or M/T which kind of makes it easier to stomach. Incredible to think JWP being "worth" that really though. Sometimes you get what you pay for, and albeit over the odds, it would return a steady performer who passes well, is knocking on England's door and can put a goal on the board from an area of the pitch we are useless at benefitting from. 8-10 extra goals off a midfielder would be worth a few of those millions each year too. I hope to see him next year at VP and not wheeling away having put it in our net. If we valued Buendia (ok yes, diff type of player) at £33 plus add ons, £40mish plus addons for JWP isn't too bad... ISH!

[KMitch]

 

1 minute ago, sne said:

We also need to start earning enough money so that signings like that would be financially responsible.

Spending twice as much on JWP than Leicester did on Soumaré doesn't make us a big club. I'd say it makes us reckless.

 

I disagree.  Signing Ings and JWP is a bit like Man City signing Barry or Lescott, cherry picking the best players in the league around us (making them weaker and us stronger at the same time).  

[jimmygreaves]

10 minutes ago, sne said:

We also need to start earning enough money so that signings like that would be financially responsible.

Spending twice as much on JWP than Leicester did on Soumaré doesn't make us a big club. I'd say it makes us reckless IMO.

 

We aren't where Leicester are yet. They're challenging at the top end of the table and are much more attractive to players like Soumaré.

If we want to get there soon, we need to pay big now.

Edited August 19, 2021 by jimmygreaves

[sne]

2 minutes ago, KMitch said:

 

I disagree.  Signing Ings and JWP is a bit like Man City signing Barry or Lescott, cherry picking the best players in the league around us (making them weaker and us stronger at the same time).  

Again, spending that kind of money on JWP would be reckless IMO. And making the 15th place team worse I can live without for that price.

Think he's a good player, better than the ones we have and with the added bonus of having great set pieces. I don't think he's THAT much better than what we have or offers that much different to the ones we have to justify spending anything close to £50m on him.

[sne]

1 minute ago, jimmygreaves said:

We aren't where Leicester are yet. They're challenging at the top end of the table and are much more attractive to players like Soumaré.

If we want to get there soon, we need to pay big now.

We need to spend smart. Pay big I can do without if we can avoid it.

[Awol]

32 minutes ago, theboyangel said:

If we do go for him, I’m guessing we’d try and use JWP similarly to how Liverpool use(d) Henderson in a midfield three?

Exactly this, or in a 2 next to Luiz. 

[ender4]

1 minute ago, jimmygreaves said:

We aren't where Leicester are yet. They're challenging at the top end of the table and are much more attractive to players like Soumaré.

If we want to get there soon, we need to pay big now.

Yet we can't pay that sort of money unless we are earning much more revenue, closer to what the big 6 earn.

Paying £50m for a player now would be around 30% of our total annual turnover, all on one player and not even counting wages. 

Catch-22.

[Made In Aston]

8 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Paying £50m for a player now would be around 30% of our total annual turnover, all on one player and not even counting wages. 

I don't quite understand this. We have been spending approximately 100m each summer for the past couple of years. Although we have spent similar this window it is covered by player sales. So is it really out of the question to spend 50m net spend on one player?! We have the money and don't need to strengthen a multitude of areas, so why not focus on one or two premium players. 

[sne]

2 minutes ago, Made In Aston said:

I don't quite understand this. We have been spending approximately 100m each summer for the past couple of years. Although we have spent similar this window it is covered by player sales. So is it really out of the question to spend 50m net spend on one player?! We have the money and don't need to strengthen a multitude of areas, so why not focus on one or two premium players. 

We've been making losses of about £100m a season as well but had our owners cover for us. It's not sustainable, especially since we already spent about £95m on transfers already this window. Some of the Grealish money will have to go towards balancing the books surely.