The AVFC FFP thread

[Demitri_C]

Get Hogan off the books he must be on big wages he would be the first of get rid of.

That oaf richards is also milking us dry. 

[bobzy]

Just now, Demitri_C said:

Get Hogan off the books he must be on big wages he would be the first of get rid of.

That oaf richards is also milking us dry. 

No-one is touching Scott Hogan based on what he supposedly earns and what he’d demand. 

James Chester may well be our best “sellable” asset outside of Grealish. I guess it depends how accurate the £45m shortfall figure is. 

[hippo]

Ah 

For 2018/19, #AVFC parachute payment falls from £34m to £17m. If we assume no other changes and zero profit on player sales, we can see how much money Villa need to find to meet FFP limit of £39m. The shortfall is £45m, which must be made up by cuts in wage bill or player sales.

Of course, this is only an estimate, where numbers could easily change, e.g. revenue might further fall in Championship, so more money would have to be found. However, central point remains valid: #AVFC need to take action this summer to reduce losses to avoid issues with FFP.

So this summer we have to find £45m 

I think the Amavi fee goes on this years sales so there is £7m - Gil £1.5m  - so £35m to find !

If those figures are correct then sad as it is - we just have to sell Grealish.

 

 

[sne]

Swiss Ramble, although he might not have every single number right is usually pretty much dead on in things like this.

He is the best guy to read regarding these things.

Followed him for years and years and you can pretty much take his numbers to the bank.

Was waiting for that article.

Edited May 29, 2018 by sne

[holteend1982]

6 minutes ago, hippo said:

 

So this summer we have to find £45m 

I think the Amavi fee goes on this years sales so there is £7m - Gil £1.5m  - so £35m to find !

If those figures are correct then sad as it is - we just have to sell Grealish.

 

 

Letting hutton gabby and Terry go will save us around 7 million In wages, if we could some how move mcormack and Richards on that would bring us to 10 million mark. 

 

I think ffp sounds worse than it actually is, there's no way Xia and Co haven't got a plan lined up to pass if we never got promoted. 

[tom221186]

Surely another option would just to not worry about FFP and just take the fine when it comes. Just like Leicester and Bournemouth did

[gilbertoAVFC]

6 minutes ago, holteend1982 said:

Letting hutton gabby and Terry go will save us around 7 million In wages, if we could some how move mcormack and Richards on that would bring us to 10 million mark. 

 

I think ffp sounds worse than it actually is, there's no way Xia and Co haven't got a plan lined up to pass if we never got promoted. 

It would be a lot more than that - probably closer to £15m. But there's utterly no way anybody would want Richards or McCormack. Jesus what were we even thinking with McCormack's contract!!

I'm convinced now we have to sell Grealish. Maybe we can do it as part of a deal that we get him back on loan for a season or something - for me probably the best scenario.

[Nabby]

5 minutes ago, tom221186 said:

Surely another option would just to not worry about FFP and just take the fine when it comes. Just like Leicester and Bournemouth did

Which is fine if you get out of the league and can use the TV cash to pay the fine , if you don't you end up like QPR still in the Championship and a £40mil fine hanging over them

[Eastie]

17 minutes ago, tom221186 said:

Surely another option would just to not worry about FFP and just take the fine when it comes. Just like Leicester and Bournemouth did

Rules have changed since last season with punishments now unlimited - including points deduction or demotion . 

Any punishment for breach of the rules will be determined by an independent panel (the ‘Fair Play Panel’).

But what are the potential punishments? Previously the Football League has only been able to either; fine promoted clubs (a fine the Premier League didn’t help them collect), or impose a transfer embargo for historic overspending (which always like a stable-door/horse scenario). With this change, a wide range of punishments are now available. Nothing is off the table; the Football League are now able to impose a points deduction during the current season, or demote a club from an automatic promotion position into the play-offs (or out of the play-offs altogether). Transfer embargoes are also available (with the earliest one potentially applying during the Summer 2017 Transfer window.

http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/financial-fair-play-explained.php

[hippo]

We need QPR to win there battle with FFP

https://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/qprs-unlawful-financial-fair-play-13805375

It does seem a bit absurd to fine a club £40m - which could push them to bankruptcy, the whole thing FFP set out to avoid.

 

[Pimlico_Villa]

23 minutes ago, gilbertoAVFC said:

I'm convinced now we have to sell Grealish. Maybe we can do it as part of a deal that we get him back on loan for a season or something - for me probably the best scenario.

I could stomach selling him to Man U for this, assuming we did absolutely have to sell him. Plus could negotiate for Johnstone and Axel again. 

[omariqy]

How much will we save on wages on?

Terry - £60k

Snodgrass - £45k

Onomah - £20k

Samba - £30k

Johnstone - £25k

Tuanzebe - £20k

Hutton - £30k

Gabby - £30k

Grabban - £30k

Estimated - £290k per week = £15m

Sales

Adomah - £7m

Hogan - £4m

McCormack - £2m

Elphick - £3m

Gil - £3m

Amavi - £8m (not sure if we can count this)

Gollini - £3m

That's £30m + £15m = £45m

Leaves us with the following squad:

GK:

Steer, Bunn, Sarkic

RB:

Bree, RDL, Elmo

LB:

Taylor

CB

Chester

RM
Blackett-Taylor

LM
Green

CM
Hourihane, Lansbury, Thor, Jedi, Whelan, Doyle Hayes
 

AM
Grealish, O'Hare

FW
Kodjia, Davis, RHM

[DCJonah]

Xia can **** off and sell the club if we are in a position where we are forced to sell grealish. 

However, i'm very confident that the club have everything under control so no probs.

[wilko154]

Realistically there are a lot of players we can offload from the wage bill and for a fee before we start getting rid of players like Grealish and Chester. If we can get at least half of the way there selling players or giving players away for free then the shortfall can be looked at in a much more manageable way where Tony and Recon can look at sponsorship deals to cover the excess. If renaming stands and the ground is a feasable way of going about it then it needs to be seriously considered.

Can Villa Park be sold to Xia or Recon, inject the money into the club and have them sell it back at a later date when we are back in the Premier League?

[wilko154]

1 minute ago, DCJonah said:

Xia can **** off and sell the club if we are in a position where we are forced to sell grealish. 

However, i'm very confident that the club have everything under control so no probs.

This isn't Xia's fault, its the mismanagement of the club prior to him coming in that has caused this.

[omariqy]

6 minutes ago, wilko154 said:

This isn't Xia's fault, its the mismanagement of the club prior to him coming in that has caused this.

Not at all. It's his fault as well. We've had a massive financial advantage these last two years and him, Wyness and co have gone for a route that on the face of it was a scatter gun approach of sign lots of players and hope it works out with a proven manager. There was no real plan in terms of adopting a playing style, building team unity etc. We gambled big the first season and it cost us. 

[DCJonah]

9 minutes ago, wilko154 said:

This isn't Xia's fault, its the mismanagement of the club prior to him coming in that has caused this.

To some extent. He has played a significant part the last 2 years. 

[tom221186]

You would hope they have planned for the outcome of not getting promoted this season 

[sne]

1 minute ago, tom221186 said:

You would hope they have planned for the outcome of not getting promoted this season 

Sure they have, but we are not going to like the plan as surely it involves cutting cost in all areas and being forced to sell those that can bring in money to the club.

Namely Grealish and possibly Hourihane or Chester.

[jimcohen]

If we have to save £45m from this seasons books from player sales/wages alone, ignoring other clever things we could do...

From already leaving players alone we make £21.73m. Figures based on a number of websites suggestions. 

Amavi - £7m

Hutton - £1.5m

Gabby - £1.75m

Terry - £2.6m

Samba - £780.000

Johnstone - £750,000

Bunn - £520,000

Snodgrass - £1.3m

Onomah - £780,000

Grabban - £1m

Tuanzeba - £350,000 (half season)

Gil - £0 already got this money last season. 

However, we also have some returning players from loan who wages we take back on. 

RMC - £1m

Tish - £750,000

Gollini - £750,000

Elphick - £,750,000

GG - £,750,000

De Laet - £750,000

So we are back to £17m. Meaning £28m has to come from elsewhere. 

This is who we know we want to sell with realistic fees and the value we make including wages coming off the books for the season ahead. 

RMC - £4m + £1m

Tish - £1m + £750,000

Gollini - £2.5m + £750,000

Elphick - £0.5m + £,750,000

GG - £1.5m + £,750,000

De Laet - £1.5m + £750,000

That's £15.7m more. So £12.3m to save. 

I would suggest we could do that most efficiently with Hogan £8m, Whelen £1m, Jedi £1m. Lansbury £3m

Leaving a squad of:

Stear, Sarkic, Elmo, Bree, Chester, Sulliman, Taylor, Albert, Green, COH, BB, Hourihane, Lyden, Jack, Kodjia, Davis, RHM - 17 strong and probably 5 light. 

Meaning we need to buy/loan a GK, CB, LB, winger, striker. We had 5 on loan this season. So no major ask there. But probably with £5-8m more needed to cover those salaries. 

So in summery. This isn't impossible. We have an ok squad at the end of this based on 2 things. 

1. We can make up at least £5-8m from other way. Stadium naming being the obvious.  Stoke could get £6.1m a year apparently. https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/919865/Stadium-naming-rights-estimate-Premier-League-ranked-sportgalleries

2. We can loan 3-5 players who will walk into the first team and work with what we have and challenge from day 1. 

Here is my suggestion. I want 4-4-2

GK - Johnstone - Where else will he go better than us? No premier league team needs a Gk other than Liverpool and we are still a draw in the championsip. One more season on loan may not be out of the question?

RB - Bree - Deserves a run in the first team. Looks a decent prospect

CB - Chester (C)

CB - Hegazi - £2m release clause and decent. Knows Elmo. 

LB - This is one area I am very unsure of. 

RW - Albert - Give him a chance on his favored position. he tired at the end of the season, but was great first 3/4

CM - Jack

CM - Hourihane

LW - Green - See what he can do when fully fit and with the confidence of a starting birth

CF - Kodjia - Fit and raring to go

CF - Grabban - Same as Johnstone. Not good enough for Prem and we are a good bet in Championship. 

Bench - Stear, Taylor, Sulliman, Lansbury,  BB, COH, Davis or RHM 

With a decent LB, I would argue this team is better attacking than what we had this year. Lighter at the back, but still better than most in the league and good enough to challenge. All within budget.