The AVFC FFP thread

[gilbertoAVFC]

It certainly is Tony's fault to some, even a large extent. Some of contracts we have handed-out to mediocre players is mind-boggling since we were relegated. See: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/aston-villa/kader/verein/405/saison_id/2017/plus/1 and click "detailed" to view expiry dates. McCormack, Taylor, Lansbury all mental. And just to say I'm not being too revisionist, 2020 for Elmo is a big risk too considering he will be nearly 33 by this point.

It is the exact same short-sightedness as under Lerner. I appreciate players have agents that try to get their clients good deals, but you have to draw the line somewhere here and set a stand or we end up in this scenario. We're Villa, we shouldn't be desperate to give Neil Taylor (28) a 3.5 year contract when his own club barely wanted him.

[Nabby]

Why do we continue to hire CEO's who pay stupid wages to bog standard players ....

[John]

How I hate FFP.  The likes of Manchester Citeh, Liverplop and PSG can spend money like its going out of fashion even the likes of Fulham and Huddersfield can have money to burn whilst we are left to let our best players go and by doing so significantly lower our chances of competing at the top table again any time soon. FFP has really stitched up clubs like us to benefit those who are already part of the exclusive rich list clubs. Those that voted for FFP should be ashamed.  

[rodders0223]

Selling Grealish isn't an option and will not be happening this summer. The priority is still to go up, and he is by far the best player in the team by about 700%.

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, John said:

How I hate FFP.  The likes of Manchester Citeh, Liverplop and PSG can spend money like its going out of fashion even the likes of Fulham and Huddersfield can have money to burn whilst we are left to let our best players go and by doing so significantly lower our chances of competing at the top table again any time soon. FFP has really stitched up clubs like us to benefit those who are already part of the exclusive rich list clubs. Those that voted for FFP should be ashamed.  

Probably a long shot - but I wonder if the premier league realise\care that there are now more minnows in the top flight than at any time I can remember. Of course they are minnows backed with sky money so they probably don't care.

[hippo]

5 minutes ago, rodders0223 said:

Selling Grealish isn't an option and will not be happening this summer. The priority is still to go up, and he is by far the best player in the team by about 700%.

Sadly IMO I thinks its a foregone conclusion if you read the the figure in this thread. We need to cover an estimated £45m  - I don't see how can do that without selling Jack.

Edited May 29, 2018 by hippo

[DCJonah]

1 minute ago, hippo said:

Sadly IMO I thinks its a foregone conclusion if you read the FFP thread. We need to cover an estimated £45m  - I don't see how can do that without selling Jack.

The journo's writing this stuff have no idea of funds coming in this summer. I think we need to wait before we assume all those, who are basing everything on last years published accounts, are correct. 

[gilbertoAVFC]

Can't we just do a City and get one of Uncle Tony's companies to sponsor us for £100m a season and gradually pay it back in some extremely dodgy method

[bobzy]

8 minutes ago, hippo said:

Probably a long shot - but I wonder if the premier league realise\care that there are now more minnows in the top flight than at any time I can remember. Of course they are minnows backed with sky money so they probably don't care.

Why do people care so much against the historic stature of football clubs? Bizarre. 

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

The journo's writing this stuff have no idea of funds coming in this summer. I think we need to wait before we assume all those, who are basing everything on last years published accounts, are correct. 

True - but I don't see it being so far out that we go with the same calibre* of squad next season and have funds to add it. The belt will have to be tightened - even if the £45m shortfall is wrong by 50% it will still impact on what we put on the pitch.

*some may view that a good thing - but its a different formula next year

[DCJonah]

9 minutes ago, hippo said:

True - but I don't see it being so far out that we go with the same calibre* of squad next season and have funds to add it. The belt will have to be tightened - even if the £45m shortfall is wrong by 50% it will still impact on what we put on the pitch.

*some may view that a good thing - but its a different formula next year

Absolutely, we will be very different this year. My point is mainly towards the ideas we will have to sell chester or grealish to survive. 

[John]

36 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Why do people care so much against the historic stature of football clubs? Bizarre. 

People might well be thinking that about us in the coming years. 

[pintpotvilla]

However good he's been Chester would not bring in an amount that would make a huge difference, so no to that, selling Grealish is unthinkable. We have to cut out the deadwood

and sell fringe players. Difficult I know but not impossible. If players have to go I would look at Adomah ( unfortunately) as we have Green available now. Taylor probably as Hutton will sign a one year contract on lower wages. De Laet, Jedinak or Whelan, Lansbury. There is plenty of quality in the U23 squad as back up and 1 or 2 of them may well come into the 1st team ( O'Hare & Doyle Hayes for me). Borg at LB and Suliman at CH must be close too. There was always going to be doom & gloom after Saturday but we finished above 20 teams last year and I can't see any of them improving that much ( due FFP-We're not the only one's affected). Stoke, Swansea,Albion & the promoted teams don't worry me too much, so all in all I reckon we'll be just fine. No need to change the manager just his tactics sometimes, and I think he knows that now!

[Wainy316]

1 hour ago, John said:

How I hate FFP.  The likes of Manchester Citeh, Liverplop and PSG can spend money like its going out of fashion even the likes of Fulham and Huddersfield can have money to burn whilst we are left to let our best players go and by doing so significantly lower our chances of competing at the top table again any time soon. FFP has really stitched up clubs like us to benefit those who are already part of the exclusive rich list clubs. Those that voted for FFP should be ashamed.  

FFP would be a good thing if it was actually fair.

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, jimcohen said:

If we have to save £45m from this seasons books from player sales/wages alone, ignoring other clever things we could do...

From already leaving players alone we make £21.73m. Figures based on a number of websites suggestions. 

Amavi - £7m

Hutton - £1.5m

Gabby - £1.75m

Terry - £2.6m

Samba - £780.000

Johnstone - £750,000

Bunn - £520,000

Snodgrass - £1.3m

Onomah - £780,000

Grabban - £1m

Tuanzeba - £350,000 (half season)

Gil - £0 already got this money last season. 

However, we also have some returning players from loan who wages we take back on. 

RMC - £1m

Tish - £750,000

Gollini - £750,000

Elphick - £,750,000

GG - £,750,000

De Laet - £750,000

So we are back to £17m. Meaning £28m has to come from elsewhere. 

This is who we know we want to sell with realistic fees and the value we make including wages coming off the books for the season ahead. 

RMC - £4m + £1m

Tish - £1m + £750,000

Gollini - £2.5m + £750,000

Elphick - £0.5m + £,750,000

GG - £1.5m + £,750,000

De Laet - £1.5m + £750,000

That's £15.7m more. So £12.3m to save. 

I would suggest we could do that most efficiently with Hogan £8m, Whelen £1m, Jedi £1m. Lansbury £3m

Leaving a squad of:

Stear, Sarkic, Elmo, Bree, Chester, Sulliman, Taylor, Albert, Green, COH, BB, Hourihane, Lyden, Jack, Kodjia, Davis, RHM - 17 strong and probably 5 light. 

Meaning we need to buy/loan a GK, CB, LB, winger, striker. We had 5 on loan this season. So no major ask there. But probably with £5-8m more needed to cover those salaries. 

So in summery. This isn't impossible. We have an ok squad at the end of this based on 2 things. 

1. We can make up at least £5-8m from other way. Stadium naming being the obvious.  Stoke could get £6.1m a year apparently. https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/919865/Stadium-naming-rights-estimate-Premier-League-ranked-sportgalleries

2. We can loan 3-5 players who will walk into the first team and work with what we have and challenge from day 1. 

Here is my suggestion. I want 4-4-2

GK - Johnstone - Where else will he go better than us? No premier league team needs a Gk other than Liverpool and we are still a draw in the championsip. One more season on loan may not be out of the question?

RB - Bree - Deserves a run in the first team. Looks a decent prospect

CB - Chester (C)

CB - Hegazi - £2m release clause and decent. Knows Elmo. 

LB - This is one area I am very unsure of. 

RW - Albert - Give him a chance on his favored position. he tired at the end of the season, but was great first 3/4

CM - Jack

CM - Hourihane

LW - Green - See what he can do when fully fit and with the confidence of a starting birth

CF - Kodjia - Fit and raring to go

CF - Grabban - Same as Johnstone. Not good enough for Prem and we are a good bet in Championship. 

Bench - Stear, Taylor, Sulliman, Lansbury,  BB, COH, Davis or RHM 

With a decent LB, I would argue this team is better attacking than what we had this year. Lighter at the back, but still better than most in the league and good enough to challenge. All within budget. 

A couple of things to bare in mind with the £45m figure from Swiss Ramble:

- Amavi sale profit (about £3M) already factored into 2017/18 figures.

- Wages are assumed static from 2016/17 season. From (admittedly rough) calculations that I've done, that would seem a reasonable average over last two seasons AFTER assuming all the player returns/releases you mention above.

- For any sales we receive, profit is roughly fees less net book value of the player. See Swiss Ramble tweet about assumed profit from 2017/18 sales.

[jimcohen]

12 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

A couple of things to bare in mind with the £45m figure from Swiss Ramble:

- Amavi sale profit (about £3M) already factored into 2017/18 figures.

- Wages are assumed static from 2016/17 season. From (admittedly rough) calculations that I've done, that would seem a reasonable average over last two seasons AFTER assuming all the player returns/releases you mention above.

- For any sales we receive, profit is roughly fees less net book value of the player. See Swiss Ramble tweet about assumed profit from 2017/18 sales.

Yes fair point, but I don't think with all that we would be miles away from what I said, plus I massively under egged a few sale fees. The only poin I want to make is the yes, FFP will affect us, we acn spend big, but we also don't need to sell Grealish and or Chester. 

The simple maths is we need to sell and Grealish would sort this out. But the other 20 odd players equal his worth so sell them all instead!

[KSV]

Pardon my ignorance...but if Xia gets Recon or Lotus Group to give Villa 40 million for naming rights of VP. Isnt this problem solved?

Edited May 29, 2018 by KSV

[hippo]

9 minutes ago, KSV said:

Pardon my ignorance...but if Xia gets Recon or Lotus Group to give Villa 40 million for naming rights of VP. Isnt this problem solved?

That I believe is against FFP rules. He can sell the naming rights but it has to be for a legit amount - you can't pump money in by the back door.

The more crafty approach is to look to be spending less ala Wolves.

[tomsky_11]

7 minutes ago, jimcohen said:

Yes fair point, but I don't think with all that we would be miles away from what I said, plus I massively under egged a few sale fees. The only poin I want to make is the yes, FFP will affect us, we acn spend big, but we also don't need to sell Grealish and or Chester. 

The simple maths is we need to sell and Grealish would sort this out. But the other 20 odd players equal his worth so sell them all instead!

I'd suggest the initial £17m reduction on the £45m due to player releases and returns probably doesn't exist, because we are might be at £45m after those changes.

I wouldn't have thought the sales of RMc, Tish, Gollini, Elphick, GG (isn't he out of contract?!) and De Laet would reduce losses for 18/19 by anything like £15m either.

I would hope that there are other things that can be done commercially to get us around some of this problem. I don't think player sales alone, unless that involves the likes of Grealish or Chester, will get us there.

[KSV]

5 minutes ago, hippo said:

That I believe is against FFP rules. He can sell the naming rights but it has to be for a legit amount - you can't pump money in by the back door.

The more crafty approach is to look to be spending less ala Wolves.

Man City did it didnt they? Well we should be able to get at least something from it. It has to be done. We can always rename it back when we go back to the premier league.