The AVFC FFP thread

[VillaChris]

Depends if we've spent all the parachute money we've recieved already or has Xia kept some of that back and injected some of his own capital last two summers? You never know, there is surely some sort of plan if we don't go up so it will be tough but I doubt it will be doomsday.

Personally I'd sell Hogan. Chester would probably want to go aswell, maybe Jack given his improved form. If selling two of those meant getting in Grabban and Snodgrass I'd do it as with those two next season you'd be pretty confident we could continue scoring goals at a decent rate.

Would have to rebuild defence with loans I think. We certainly couldn't go out and spend 9m on a CB like we did with Chester. It would be more Elphick punts which can go either way of course.

The crux of it for me though is we seem to have put in people's minds you have to spend 30-40m to get promoted in this division. You don't.

Cardiff is obvious example as posters have said, Preston and Bristol barely spent anything in the summer and one of those will be in the play offs.

Fulham are an example of what we need to do if we don't go up this summer. They came down in 2014 in a similar mess to us, over the next year got rid of all the players who'd been in their premier league squad and then rebuilt by signing good players from other championship clubs e.g. Tim Ream (Bolton), McDonald (Wolves), Cairney (Blackburn) and Norwood (Brighton) all good players for them.

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

UEFA's FFP rules are for European competition.

We have to worry about the PL's and the Football League's equivalents.

Does the Prem have FFP, Stevo? I didn't think it did.

[Stevo985]

46 minutes ago, blandy said:

Does the Prem have FFP, Stevo? I didn't think it did.

I thought they did but happy to be corrected.

[mrjc]

On 18/03/2018 at 12:18, Demitri_C said:

McCormack is the key one. If we can get rid of him that will help massively. 

We need to permanently get rid of the likes of Gil, Tish and gollini.

gabby and Hutton will free significant wages. We might be okay fir next year just but that would again very little ,ones spent and relying on loans again.

Weirdly (sadly), this is only beneficial for us if we can get some meaningful cash for him. 

Let's say he's on £45k per week (I've seen differing reports).  If we get rid in the summer, that will save us £2.3m over a year.

However, he will still be 'worth'  £6m in our accounts (based on it being a £12m fee, four-year contract), at the end of this season.  So if we gave him away, we suddenly have a £6m loss (ie, bigger than the saving in wages).  Even if we were able to sell him for £4m, we would make a loss which would just about be offset by the saving in wages.  

Better solution (purely for FFP test) might be to try and get him out on loan again, with someone paying a fee and a bit of his wages.  Real mess though

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

I thought they did but happy to be corrected.

This seems to be a summary of their gubbins - no FFP as such as far as I can see, but I've maybe missed something?

Quote

The Premier League has a number of financial rules in place, including requirements for clubs to pay transfer fees, salaries and tax bills on time. They must also submit accounts annually, and disclose payments made to agents. You can read these regulations in full in the Premier League Handbook, primarily Section E: Club Finances.

Outside of these obligations it is up to individual clubs, who all have their own directors and senior executives, to make decisions over how they spend their income.

 

[Stevo985]

2 minutes ago, blandy said:

This seems to be the extent of their gubbins - no FFP.

 

Fair enough. I thought both the PL and the Football League had their own versions of FFP. Do PL teams have to obey the Football League's FFP or are they immune? (open question, not specifically idrected at you, blandy)

 

But I think the point of my OP stands by the way. In that it's not UEFA's FFP rules we have to worry about (for now?).

[blandy]

Just now, Stevo985 said:

Fair enough. I thought both the PL and the Football League had their own versions of FFP. Do PL teams have to obey the Football League's FFP or are they immune? (open question, not specifically idrected at you, blandy)

But I think the point of my OP stands by the way. In that it's not UEFA's FFP rules we have to worry about (for now?).

Sure, your point stands, I was just commenting on (my understanding of) the PL having no FFP as such. There's some stuff in their rules about how much wages overall can increase per season for a club as well, digging in the weeds.

PL teams are not impacted by EFL FFP rules (unless they drop into the EFL, when, obviously they are then EFL clubs and a figure per PL season is permittted  in terms of losses, by the EFL from the PL seasons of that club.

If you follow the link I posted, you can then get to a 621 page handbook and read all about the PL's rules, including those on beans and the counting thereof. It's  a joy. Unpickupable. 9/10

[HanoiVillan]

3 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Depends if we've spent all the parachute money we've recieved already or has Xia kept some of that back and injected some of his own capital last two summers? You never know, there is surely some sort of plan if we don't go up so it will be tough but I doubt it will be doomsday.

Personally I'd sell Hogan.

I'm happy to be corrected by people who know more about accounting than me (which is 99% of the population) but I thought the problem was that selling Hogan would still count as a loss in the accounts. 

To be honest, I don't see who we can sell except Grealish, so I think it's get promoted or he leaves.

[Stevo985]

52 minutes ago, blandy said:

Sure, your point stands, I was just commenting on (my understanding of) the PL having no FFP as such. There's some stuff in their rules about how much wages overall can increase per season for a club as well, digging in the weeds.

PL teams are not impacted by EFL FFP rules (unless they drop into the EFL, when, obviously they are then EFL clubs and a figure per PL season is permittted  in terms of losses, by the EFL from the PL seasons of that club.

If you follow the link I posted, you can then get to a 621 page handbook and read all about the PL's rules, including those on beans and the counting thereof. It's  a joy. Unpickupable. 9/10

I'm up to page 407.

I reckon the butler did it.

[mrjc]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'm happy to be corrected by people who know more about accounting than me (which is 99% of the population) but I thought the problem was that selling Hogan would still count as a loss in the accounts. 

To be honest, I don't see who we can sell except Grealish, so I think it's get promoted or he leaves.

Depends on how much we sell him for. I think at the end of this season he will have an asset value to us of around £8m (this is based on a fee of £12m on a 4.5 year contract, which I don’t know for sure). 

So if we sell him for less than £8m, that goes as a loss for FFP (although we will save his wages...maybe a couple of £million?). If we sell him more, that’s all profit.  

[Nabby]

4 hours ago, mrjc said:

Weirdly (sadly), this is only beneficial for us if we can get some meaningful cash for him. 

Let's say he's on £45k per week (I've seen differing reports).  If we get rid in the summer, that will save us £2.3m over a year.

However, he will still be 'worth'  £6m in our accounts (based on it being a £12m fee, four-year contract), at the end of this season.  So if we gave him away, we suddenly have a £6m loss (ie, bigger than the saving in wages).  Even if we were able to sell him for £4m, we would make a loss which would just about be offset by the saving in wages.  

Better solution (purely for FFP test) might be to try and get him out on loan again, with someone paying a fee and a bit of his wages.  Real mess though

I would say the more likely solution is ( in the case of us not going up ) a new manager will come in and he will have to see if he can get back to being the player he was before we signed him .Given the season he has had as your point out in your figures any sale will be so low it will be less than worthless to us

[HanoiVillan]

17 minutes ago, mrjc said:

Depends on how much we sell him for. I think at the end of this season he will have an asset value to us of around £8m (this is based on a fee of £12m on a 4.5 year contract, which I don’t know for sure). 

So if we sell him for less than £8m, that goes as a loss for FFP (although we will save his wages...maybe a couple of £million?). If we sell him more, that’s all profit.  

Thanks! I thought it was something like that. No way will we sell him for more than £8m IMO, so it probably isn't worth selling him. 

[Mark Albrighton]

Christ you know things are bad when keeping a disinterested player on £40 grand a week is the financially better option.

[blandy]

2 hours ago, mrjc said:

Depends on how much we sell him for. I think at the end of this season he will have an asset value to us of around £8m (this is based on a fee of £12m on a 4.5 year contract, which I don’t know for sure). 

So if we sell him for less than £8m, that goes as a loss for FFP (although we will save his wages...maybe a couple of £million?). If we sell him more, that’s all profit.  

It would, you're right, but if he stays his value also goes down, on the books as amortisation at another approx. 3 million, so the hit wouldn't be as dramatic as maybe? you thought, or others might have thought - essentially we will "lose" money on him if he stays through both wages and amortisation, and if we sell him we don't lose the wages, but we do lose whatever the difference between the selling price and his book value is.

I'm off for a lie down. My head hurts.

[Eastie]

2 hours ago, mrjc said:

Depends on how much we sell him for. I think at the end of this season he will have an asset value to us of around £8m (this is based on a fee of £12m on a 4.5 year contract, which I don’t know for sure). 

So if we sell him for less than £8m, that goes as a loss for FFP (although we will save his wages...maybe a couple of £million?). If we sell him more, that’s all profit.  

I’d be amazed if we got as much as £8m for hogan - I’d say £4m more realistic .

[TRO]

So how many teams are strapped or hampered by FFP right now, apart from us ?....open question?

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

So how many teams are strapped or hampered by FFP right now, apart from us ?....open question?

Sunderland are f**ked

[mrjc]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

It would, you're right, but if he stays his value also goes down, on the books as amortisation at another approx. 3 million, so the hit wouldn't be as dramatic as maybe? you thought, or others might have thought - essentially we will "lose" money on him if he stays through both wages and amortisation, and if we sell him we don't lose the wages, but we do lose whatever the difference between the selling price and his book value is.

I'm off for a lie down. My head hurts.

Yes you’re right - the big difference is that by selling him earlier, any loss we realise at that point is immediate. And given FFP is on a rolling basis and we’re about to hit a year which is very tight, all losses in the next year are bad news.

You're right that if he stays we will have another year’s worth of amortisation plus wages - it’s just his ‘cost’ gets spread over the life of the contract.  So probably worse for us as a club overall - but not for the sake of meeting the FFP test (one of the flaws of it!).  

I suppose overall, I don’t see this one as being a game changer either way for FFP - even a sale won’t particularly help us, but take your point that it might not be disastrous. 

[MapleVilla]

FFP only a potential problem if we qualify for Europe I thought? Let's face it most teams in the premiership it's probably not much of an issue. Only for likes of Citeh who may spend 80 million on a player? 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

1 hour ago, MapleVilla said:

FFP only a potential problem if we qualify for Europe I thought? Let's face it most teams in the premiership it's probably not much of an issue.

Haha! I wish