The AVFC FFP thread

[Demitri_C]

46 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

He's worth no where near that I'm afraid, not yet anyway.

They are saying tom cairney is worth 15-20m and i i think grealish is a lot younger than him. for me grealish is worth around that much based on his potential minimum

we paid 15m for kodjia if he gets over his injury problems he could go for something close to that (mccormack did) hogan is ONLY 25 as well he could go for big money if his goal scoring form continues. 

[Eastie]

30 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

They are saying tom cairney is worth 15-20m and i i think grealish is a lot younger than him. for me grealish is worth around that much based on his potential minimum

we paid 15m for kodjia if he gets over his injury problems he could go for something close to that (mccormack did) hogan is ONLY 25 as well he could go for big money if his goal scoring form continues. 

£15m for  Grealish ?

 That’s the deposit payable , what about the main  fee

[DCJonah]

If we have to sell Grealish now i think i'll throw in the towel. 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

9 hours ago, mrjc said:

Agreed. 

Although it’s interesting, the new PL rights deal looks like it may be lower than the current one (although with some packages yet to be sold).  So alongside all our general mismanagement over the last decade or so, we will have even timed our (hopefully short) stint out of the PL to have avoided the most lucrative years!  Unbelievable 

Ha! True. Though it isn't by much and it's not as if the league, outside of Manchester City, has improved much at all since we've been away. If anything there is now an opportunity for a well ran, ambitious club to rise above the dross and compete. 

IMO. 

[sne]

So things are just as grim as expected?

Wearing a PL suit in the Championship was always going to be a gamble, hopefully it will pay off.

ATM we actually look like promotion contenders, honestly didn't think that would be the case.

Very much a make or break season for the club. (Players and manager will be fine either way, they'll always find new jobs.)

 

[KHV]

17 hours ago, DCJonah said:

If we have to sell Grealish now i think i'll throw in the towel. 

If we don't go up I think you can say goodbye to most of the 1st team sqaud

[Eastie]

3 hours ago, KHV said:

If we don't go up I think you can say goodbye to most of the 1st team sqaud

I think Johnstone , terry , snodgrass would certainly be gone along with the other loans and possibly Grealish and kodjia - hopefully we go up and all stay .

[ciggiesnbeer]

9 hours ago, sne said:

So things are just as grim as expected?

Wearing a PL suit in the Championship was always going to be a gamble, hopefully it will pay off.

ATM we actually look like promotion contenders, honestly didn't think that would be the case.

Very much a make or break season for the club. (Players and manager will be fine either way, they'll always find new jobs.)

 

Nah, I think some folks are assuming a lot of bad stuff that does not exist. 

We know (as the club already told us) things were very grim 16/17. We also know as the club have just told us,  after all the cost cutting we are now profitable. Unless we think the club are now lying (although why they would is beyond me) we are in good shape.

If we go up then we can probably keep this type of squad maybe an upgrade. if we don't then yeah we will have to let all the higher payers go who are out of contract and sign up younger championship players instead.

We are going to be fine though. We have a good owner with deep pockets we just need to navigate FFP, which is a challenge but a lot easier for a club of our size.

Edited February 16, 2018 by ciggiesnbeer

[sidcow]

On 15/02/2018 at 08:36, mrjc said:

Agreed. 

Although it’s interesting, the new PL rights deal looks like it may be lower than the current one (although with some packages yet to be sold).  So alongside all our general mismanagement over the last decade or so, we will have even timed our (hopefully short) stint out of the PL to have avoided the most lucrative years!  Unbelievable 

Or teams currently in the PL are stacked with players being paid enormous wages clubs thought they would be able to pay because the TV money always goes up doesn't it? Who will now be in trouble because the increased revenue they thought would come now doesn't. Whereas we can cut our cloth accordingly not being hamstrung by existing contracts that are now unaffordable. 

[VillaChris]

13 hours ago, sne said:

So things are just as grim as expected?

Wearing a PL suit in the Championship was always going to be a gamble, hopefully it will pay off.

ATM we actually look like promotion contenders, honestly didn't think that would be the case.

Very much a make or break season for the club. (Players and manager will be fine either way, they'll always find new jobs.)

 

It would help us greatly if we went up as obviously outside revenue from TV and sponsors is minimal compared to what you get in the premier league.

It's not all bad news though. I was genuinely surprised by how much we've reduced our wage bill in the last year. Of course parts of that will be fewer staff on matchdays (e.g. Upper Trinity being closed) and general cost cutting. Also relegation deductions in many contracts.

However when you look at the names in the squad there's still many who'll be earning a good wage at this club.

The key if/when we go up is not to get carried away and make 5-6 signings that massively inflate the wage bill for minimal return as we saw in the last few years of Lerner.

It's insane when you think of the amount of money premier league clubs get from TV that so many of them pay out 80-90% of their turnover on wages. We were up there in the MON days of course which was unhealthy but results on the pitch masked things. As soon as that dried up the massive problems started.

[S-Platt]

I can't remember if I dreamt this but did we not have relegation clauses in contracts so that would explain to a certain extent the drop in wage bill.

Also did we not defer the transfer fee for Amarvi till next year?

[Eastie]

40 minutes ago, S-Platt said:

I can't remember if I dreamt this but did we not have relegation clauses in contracts so that would explain to a certain extent the drop in wage bill.

Also did we not defer the transfer fee for Amarvi till next year?

Correct on both counts I believe .

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, S-Platt said:

I can't remember if I dreamt this but did we not have relegation clauses in contracts so that would explain to a certain extent the drop in wage bill.

Also did we not defer the transfer fee for Amarvi till next year?

Yes so I think it’s 8m for amavi sale will go to next years accounts. Quite clever really

[thabucks]

One of the only good things Fox did was insert those wage reduction clauses.... Hutton and Gabby definitely have them. Don't think  Richards did as his wages partly include his signing on fee being spread over the length of his contract. 

 

[Stevo985]

The Swiss Ramble is posting a Twitter thread about our most recent results as I type this. Will definitely be worth a read.

[VillaAlex]

5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

The Swiss Ramble is posting a Twitter thread about our most recent results as I type this. Will definitely be worth a read.

Seems like as mentioned elsewhere, if we don't go up it's going be a bit of a fire sale. 

[Stevo985]

6 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

The Swiss Ramble is posting a Twitter thread about our most recent results as I type this. Will definitely be worth a read.

I've read it. Definitely worth a read. Very detailed as always.

My very brief summary would be our results aren't amazing, but they're not terrible either. However the risk if we don't go up is very real. 

[Demitri_C]

Just now, VillaAlex said:

Seems like as mentioned elsewhere, if we don't go up it's going be a bit of a fire sale. 

We are in massive trouble I think if we dont go up. At least we will get rid of gabbys 60k wages thats going to help massively

It will probabaly mean selling one of our big players. I would sell Hogan  ahead of Kodjia or Grealish 

[sne]

Quote

#AVFC loss dramatically improved £66m from £81m to £15m, mainly due to accounting movements, i.e. £80m exceptional items booked in 15/16 (stadium value written-down £45m & player impairment £35m). Otherwise, revenue reduction following relegation was largely offset by cost cuts.

#AVFC revenue dropped 32% (£35m) following relegation from the Premier League. All revenue streams decreased: broadcasting fell 26% (£17m) from £65m to £48m; commercial was down 54% (£15m) from £28m to £13m; gate receipts fell 14% (£2m) from £13m to £11m; player loans down £1m.

This was offset by a significant 34% cut in wages of £32m from £93m to £61m and cost reductions elsewhere, e.g. other expenses down 17% (£5m) from £32m to £26m, depreciation down 21% (£1m) from £4m to £3m. On the other hand, player amortisation rose 48% (£8m) from £16m to £24m.

#AVFC have consistently lost money with cumulative reported losses of £334m in the last nine years

#AVFC have booked £109m of exceptional expenses since 2011: £23m to sacked managers, £41m reducing the value of poor player purchases & £45m writing-down value of Villa Park. The charges in 2016 will boost future figures via higher profits on player sales, lower depreciation.

#AVFC revenue fell £35m from £109m to £74m following relegation, their lowest turnover since the £77m reported in 2008. In fact, this is 37% (£43m) below their peak revenue of £117m in 2013/14 (the 22nd highest in the world, per the Deloitte Money League).

Nevertheless, #AVFC £61m wage bill is the second highest ever seen in the Championship (only behind QPR’s £75m in 2013/14) and is far more than the highest reported in 2015/16 (again QPR £41m), though will probably be overtaken when Newcastle publish their 2016/17 accounts.

Since 2007 #AVFC owners (old and new) have provided an astonishing £385m of funding (loans £242m plus share capital £143m). 42% has gone on players (£161m) with £81m covering operating losses. Around £66m was used to acquire the club, while £46m was invested in infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/966234457433870336

 

[villa82]

40 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

We are in massive trouble I think if we dont go up. At least we will get rid of gabbys 60k wages thats going to help massively

It will probabaly mean selling one of our big players. I would sell Hogan  ahead of Kodjia or Grealish 

If we sell Hogan in the summer it will be as a loss in the financial results. Need 80% of the transfer fee back just to break even.

only players that bring in money are players we got for nothing like Grealish, Green, Davis. Players at the last of their contracts like maybe Chester, Adomah and Gill.  

we cant afford to sell RossMcC!