blandy Posted January 23, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 hours ago, Xann said: Dad passed yesterday. Sympathy, Dave. RIP Xann Snr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Designer1 Posted January 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 hours ago, Xann said: Dad passed yesterday. Really sorry to hear that Dave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Sorry to hear that @Xann. I hope your mum gets well soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @XannShit news, Dave. Sorry to hear it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Xann said: Dad passed yesterday. Mum slept through her symptoms and seems ok so far. I was allowed to see them, the first time since April. Stayed with him overnight on Thursday. Got to say goodbye. There's been tears, but it's easier to be philosophical about Dad than it was my Sister. 3 others died from Covid in their residential place. Another home in Worcester lost 14 after an outbreak. So sorry to hear this. My thoughts are with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, avfcDJ said: After seeing the post below I deleted my reply to this. No harm. I hope it was suitably abuse towards me. Edited January 23, 2021 by Seat68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Seat68 said: No harm. I hope it was suitably abuse towards me. Just laughing at what you said, but with the news I saw after it felt out of place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Pretty grim reading. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/our-road-to-freedom-and-obstacles-in-the-way-mx7pbmw0d Quote Vaccines, we were told from the start, were the exit strategy — our one hope of ending the pandemic. That remains the case. But it is increasingly clear this does not mean the way out will be easy, or that now is the time to book your summer holiday on the Costa del Sol. This coronavirus is with humanity for good. And if the first year of the pandemic was about buying time for the vaccines, the second is about settling into an accommodation with the virus and a slow return to normal. Best case Scenario: Cases pushed low by lockdown, 20 million first doses by March with more on the way, the vaccine stops transmission, new variants elsewhere still respond to vaccination. The year ahead: As the sun warms the country and the first flowers emerge, with it comes hope — hope of meeting friends, hope of returning to the school gate and hope that, one day, you will see the condensation glisten again on a pint of beer in a pub garden. That hoped-for moment might still take longer than many had expected. Marc Baguelin of Imperial College, who sits on Spi-M, the government modelling advisory group, is part of the team that has been looking at the likely effects of opening up society after the start of vaccinations. Even a gradual loosening of lockdown measures would lead to a surge in hospital admissions if it began in March, the models show. In April, May and June the NHS would be swamped, with more than 30,000 beds occupied by Covid patients. “Any scenarios where you relax restrictions immediately, you see a big wave — a bigger wave than we’re experiencing now,” Dr Baguelin said. He thinks it’s likely to be closer to May before the government can loosen lockdown. Schools will be the first priority. Domestic travel should open up and we will see the return of travel corridors. Overseas, many countries will allow people who have been vaccinated to enter free of testing or quarantine. But don’t expect to be visiting South Africa or Brazil any time soon. Mark Woolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh, said that within the country we should see a gradual return of forgotten freedoms as spring arrives. “This virus does not transmit well outdoors. I would be very disappointed if it wasn’t possible to resume the great majority of outdoor activities,” he said. Glastonbury may be off but Wimbledon, Glyndebourne and other staples of the British summer could be back on — albeit with social distancing. Then, with luck, by the autumn — perhaps even after two weeks in a Covid-approved destination — we will all be vaccinated. In the best case, look forward to strawberries and cream. Just don’t share a spoon. Medium case Scenario: Cases decline through lockdown but slower than we would like. Vaccinations of the over-50s finish by May with transmission slowed but not blocked completely. New worrying variants continue to emerge. The year ahead: The NHS has been pushed to the brink. It has so far held firm. But hospitals are now so full that even as beds empty it takes two or three months for them to reach a level where exhausted staff could cope with even the slightest rise in cases. As a result, while there is a good chance of getting pupils back for the summer term, visits to friends and family remain off limits until April or May. “At the moment we’re in an unsustainable position, and we can’t do anything until we’ve really got the numbers of cases down,” says Matt Keeling, a professor at the University of Warwick. Domestic travel is likely to be approved first. A return to the tiers system, or a revised set of measures, could see a gradual reopening, with hospitality in the areas with the lowest levels of infection allowed to welcome guests from low tiers first. The big battle will be once again about schools. There is huge political pressure to open early. There is scientific pressure not to. “There’s a divergence of opinion within Sage on how much schools contribute,” says Professor Woolhouse. This isn’t just a debate about children. “One of the problems with schools is that when you open schools, all sorts of other things happen. And particularly, what do the parents do when they are free?” Adam Kucharski, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, thinks the most likely outcome of the debates to come is a slow easing of restrictions — and a return to something that isn’t quite normal but, given what we’ve been through, will feel more like it. “Any major relaxation in the next couple of months would mean continuing pressure on hospitals. But if all goes well, summer 2021 should be more normal than summer 2020.” And even if the vaccine doesn’t completely stop transmission, by winter 2021 it will be protecting most adults. Worst case Scenario: Supply problems mean vaccination of the vulnerable drags on into summer. Transmission not interrupted. Variants emerge that are resistant to vaccines. The year ahead: It was inevitable that the coronavirus would evolve to evade our vaccines, but scientists had hoped it would take longer than a year. The good news is that if these variants do escape immunity manufacturers are able to tweak the vaccine in weeks. The bad news is that starting again will be a monumental inconvenience. If the vaccine programme goes badly, or the vaccine itself is ineffective, then the entire calculus changes. There is still much that is unknown. It is highly unlikely that vaccines will give no immunity to new variants, but it’s possible that in some cases it might be dented. If this is true, borders will remain largely closed and the chance of a foreign holiday will be gone. Going into winter, facing a pandemic-within-a-pandemic, much of the population will have to make do with a hotchpotch of protection as once again the world looks to supply chains and cold storage for salvation. But as to what such a catastrophe would mean in terms of policy for an exhausted country and a prime minister under pressure, the modellers confess their equations fail them. “All our scenarios are contingent on implicit assumptions about what the politicians do,” says Professor Woolhouse, “and I have to say, I have not found that easy to predict.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tegis Posted January 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Xann said: Dad passed yesterday. Oh man So sorry for your loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 48 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Pretty grim reading. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/our-road-to-freedom-and-obstacles-in-the-way-mx7pbmw0d I'm clinging on to my blind optimism that it's closer to (or even better than) the best case scenario. I'm hoping the current scaling up of vaccine manufacturer and administration continues. We're currently running about 3m a week but it could easily go up further to 4 or 5m and be into the final large low risk group before we know it. I'm also hoping that the mutations stay within what the current vaccines cover although it should be quick to swap out the virus without recertification unless it changes massively. My only worry with that is how they decide which variant to give because sometimes they get the winter flu strain wrong. The key stat will be hospital admissions. They should start falling off a cliff in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, darrenm said: I'm clinging on to my blind optimism that it's closer to (or even better than) the best case scenario. I'm hoping the current scaling up of vaccine manufacturer and administration continues. We're currently running about 3m a week but it could easily go up further to 4 or 5m and be into the final large low risk group before we know it. I'm also hoping that the mutations stay within what the current vaccines cover although it should be quick to swap out the virus without recertification unless it changes massively. My only worry with that is how they decide which variant to give because sometimes they get the winter flu strain wrong. The key stat will be hospital admissions. They should start falling off a cliff in a week or so. I read somewhere the other day that the manufacturers were already looking at the new variations that are emerging like South Africa and seeing f they need to tweak their formula. Such a shame, although it's absolutely astonishing how quickly this has been developed, approved, manufactured and shipped it just feels like if it had come just a month earlier it would have made such a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) 478,278 vaccines today. Tomorrow is a big day to see how many they are getting done at weekends. I'm convinced they are aiming for 3m a week. As we've already done 5m that would see all over 50s vaccinated in the next 3 weeks. I think by then there is going to be a lot of pressure for second doses to be done closer together so they'll switch strategy and you'll see less first doses and more second doses. Edited January 23, 2021 by sidcow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Xann Posted January 23, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 23, 2021 Thanks All for the thoughts x The reality is Dad was 84 and had no short term memory. He was rapidly heading toward complete dependence, literally nappies and shit. He'd always said he'd smother Mum with a pillow and then top himself if they was put in a home? Fortunately he forgot that too, though we lived in fear of that memory coming back, even fleetingly. It was a gentle exit for him. I actually thought he'd survive it. His breathing was regular and any discomfort was offset by a modest (ie non lethal) dose of opiates, then he'd sleep like a baby. My Sister was conscious on her last day. That's the benchmark of horror for me, with the heart attack in second. Dad's exit was serenity compared with that. Dad's death feels like the way of things, and I'm finding myself weirdly calm about it all today. Family and friends on on hand to help deal with legal aspects and it's a three week wait before we can get any type of service, which gives us time to find a couple of his old friends. 4 hours ago, Seat68 said: Xann deepest condolences to your family. Hope your mum’s recovery is swift. Mum's deep in dementia and so far completely unaware Dad has gone. She's a pacer. After days of being in Covid sleep she wakes up on Thursday and it's business as usual. I'm sat with Dad on Thursday night, in a darkened room, a large picture of my Sister in white next to his bed illuminated by the light in the corridor. Every couple of minutes Mum walks past the open door, first one way, then the other without looking in. I'm sat there thinking, what fresh hell is this? It was like some sort of psychological horror film. Anyway, got a few days in spare room isolation to mull on it all. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post blandy Posted January 23, 2021 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, Xann said: Anyway, got a few days in spare room isolation to mull on it all. Remember to look after yourself, Dave. And best wishes - a lot of people on here will be thinking of you, so take care, bud. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Xann my heart goes out to you and your family. Thank you for sharing that, it must be so hard to write. I've learned that VT is filled with people who care and I know anybody here will listen if you need to talk. I had members come to me when I fell ill, it meant a lot. We are all here for you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, Xann said: Thanks All for the thoughts x The reality is Dad was 84 and had no short term memory. He was rapidly heading toward complete dependence, literally nappies and shit. He'd always said he'd smother Mum with a pillow and then top himself if they was put in a home? Fortunately he forgot that too, though we lived in fear of that memory coming back, even fleetingly. It was a gentle exit for him. I actually thought he'd survive it. His breathing was regular and any discomfort was offset by a modest (ie non lethal) dose of opiates, then he'd sleep like a baby. My Sister was conscious on her last day. That's the benchmark of horror for me, with the heart attack in second. Dad's exit was serenity compared with that. Dad's death feels like the way of things, and I'm finding myself weirdly calm about it all today. Family and friends on on hand to help deal with legal aspects and it's a three week wait before we can get any type of service, which gives us time to find a couple of his old friends. Mum's deep in dementia and so far completely unaware Dad has gone. She's a pacer. After days of being in Covid sleep she wakes up on Thursday and it's business as usual. I'm sat with Dad on Thursday night, in a darkened room, a large picture of my Sister in white next to his bed illuminated by the light in the corridor. Every couple of minutes Mum walks past the open door, first one way, then the other without looking in. I'm sat there thinking, what fresh hell is this? It was like some sort of psychological horror film. Anyway, got a few days in spare room isolation to mull on it all. I seem to remember you being near to me (bromsgrove)? If there's anything I can do just drop me a message. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Xann Posted January 23, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 23, 2021 Cheers Gang. 2020/21 - The years where your internet friends were your real friends. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Some medical groups are calling for the time between first and second jabs, to be no longer than six weeks. Apparently we are alone in the world with the 12 week gap. Let's hope the UK has got this one right. Be major ramifications if deploying the vaccine in this way led to anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted January 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Xann- Haven't known quite what to say tbh, Dave. But your followup post rang bells with me. My Dad went a similar way, totally lost to dementia. And my Mum was suffering miserably with cancer and COPD. And my daughter's mother in law died just before Xmas - covid, but again, far gone with dementia. The idea of a 'blessed release' is a glib cliché, but there is some truth in it. This is happening to thousands of families all over the world atm, and it's never an easy one to deal with. Not sure how much of a support VT is, but here we are anyway. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Feel really **** down about this today. I never expected the vaccines to work quickly or be as easy to implement as suggested. But I kind of thought the second wave was passing and I could see my family when I finished this work I'm on. Then this new covid strain hit and everything is on lock down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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