The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[Genie]

19 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

the get Surrey online poll currently has

Libs 43%

Conservative 33%

Brexit 10%

Labour 9%

Green 3%

 

not entirely scientific as old people don't know how to use the internet and that obviously hampers the Conservative vote but still quite an interesting snapshot

 

 

Why do people put trust in polls? EU referendum should have taught people about that. Especially when there is a risk of being called racist, people will either lie or keep their view to themselves until they put the cross on the ballot paper.

[Demitri_C]

34 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

the get Surrey online poll currently has

Libs 43%

Conservative 33%

Brexit 10%

Labour 9%

Green 3%

 

not entirely scientific as old people don't know how to use the internet and that obviously hampers the Conservative vote but still quite an interesting snapshot

 

 

This really would be a interesting result. 

[ml1dch]

24 minutes ago, Genie said:

Why do people put trust in polls? EU referendum should have taught people about that. Especially when there is a risk of being called racist, people will either lie or keep their view to themselves until they put the cross on the ballot paper.

Without wanting to speak for Tony, I expect he's not "putting his trust" in a click poll on the Surrey Online website, merely sharing some anecdotal information. 

Does it tell us anything? Yes, it answers the valuable question of which party's voters are most likely to respond to an online poll if they happen to be looking at, or are directed to the Surrey Online website.

Does that information have the same value as a sample group of 10,000 people across the country where you have tracked that group's voting intentions and record across all local, European and General Elections for the last five years and how that has changed over time?

No. Think of it like a transfer rumour- what is the source, what is their methodology and what is their track record for accuracy. Then decide whether it's useful information or not. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by ml1dch

[tonyh29]

5 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Without wanting to speak for Tony, I expect he's not "putting his trust" in a click poll on the Surrey Online website, merely sharing some anecdotal information. 

Does it tell us anything? Yes, it answers the valuable question of which party's voters are most likely to respond to an online poll if they happen to be looking at, or are directed to the Surrey Online website.

Does that information have the same value as a sample group of 10,000 people across the country where you have tracked that group's voting intentions and record across all local, European and General Elections for the last five years and how that has changed over time?

No. 

tbf you put it more eloquently than I could , any chance you can write a message for me to put in my wifes anniversary card whilst you're at it

 

 

[Genie]

12 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Without wanting to speak for Tony, I expect he's not "putting his trust" in a click poll on the Surrey Online website, merely sharing some anecdotal information. 

Does it tell us anything? Yes, it answers the valuable question of which party's voters are most likely to respond to an online poll if they happen to be looking at, or are directed to the Surrey Online website.

Does that information have the same value as a sample group of 10,000 people across the country where you have tracked that group's voting intentions and record across all local, European and General Elections for the last five years and how that has changed over time?

No. Think of it like a transfer rumour- what is the source, what is their methodology and what is their track record for accuracy. Then decide whether it's useful information or not. 

Yes, it was more a general point. There's an awful lot of talk about poll's and what way things might be going. I think We're in a bit of a special situation where people are not going to admit voting Tory like they didn't for leave. Just my thought, not a dig at anyone in particular

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Why do people put trust in polls? EU referendum should have taught people about that. Especially when there is a risk of being called racist, people will either lie or keep their view to themselves until they put the cross on the ballot paper.

I have an interest in them,  how they work and how they react to news and the fact that they all produce different results day by day.  It might be the case they have learnt from the Referendum polls and improved,  will be interesting to see if this happens.

They could be within only a few percent either way as the question / options are totally different.  Brexit people can quite happily say Conservative without fear of being labelled a racist so I guess these polls will be more accurate than those before.

 

[villaglint]

I always take my business partner to be an excellent weather vain for politics ahead of a General Election. He is the archetypal floating voter. He actively tries to avoid reading about politics in between elections but hears and react to the odd snippets he here's on the news and Radio 4. His views generally gives a good impression of where the next election will be won and lost. 

He doesn't trust Boris Johnson and dislikes several of the more ridiculous figures within the current Tory party. He despises Jeremy Corbyn and wouldn't be able to tell you why, just doesn't like him. Nothing to do with policies, almost 100% personality. 

He voted remain and his de facto wife has been working in the NHS for 15 years as a nurse seeing first hand the effect of the cuts. 

Despite that the main argument he is persuaded by at the moment is that we need to just get "brexit done" and move on. I realise that slogan will have been formed by millions of data points and a clever AI but my feeling is its going to prove very powerful and despite the Tory party destroying our public services, our national standing and putting in place plans to destroy the economy the public will say. Yes please can I have some more of that please. 

We will deserve everything we get. 

[desensitized43]

33 minutes ago, villaglint said:

I always take my business partner to be an excellent weather vain for politics ahead of a General Election. He is the archetypal floating voter. He actively tries to avoid reading about politics in between elections but hears and react to the odd snippets he here's on the news and Radio 4. His views generally gives a good impression of where the next election will be won and lost. 

He doesn't trust Boris Johnson and dislikes several of the more ridiculous figures within the current Tory party. He despises Jeremy Corbyn and wouldn't be able to tell you why, just doesn't like him. Nothing to do with policies, almost 100% personality. 

He voted remain and his de facto wife has been working in the NHS for 15 years as a nurse seeing first hand the effect of the cuts. 

Despite that the main argument he is persuaded by at the moment is that we need to just get "brexit done" and move on. I realise that slogan will have been formed by millions of data points and a clever AI but my feeling is its going to prove very powerful and despite the Tory party destroying our public services, our national standing and putting in place plans to destroy the economy the public will say. Yes please can I have some more of that please. 

We will deserve everything we get. 

A friend of mine massively surprised me the other day by saying he was going to vote Lib Dem.

He's grown up in a Tory household. His father is the archetype Tory, 70s white man who used to own his own business and despises all things foreign and thinks those that are poor are basically "doing life wrong" or "should have tried harder". My friend naturally picked up a lot of that kind of nonsense and voted out in the referendum. As times gone on he's grown more frustrated at the process and in a conversation we had the other day said he now "couldn't be bothered with the whole thing as it was too hard and too much effort to leave" also didn't like what the Tories are doing to services as his wife is a school teacher so he now hears how difficult a lot of their disgusting policies are. I just thought that the "cant be bothered" was just the most British thing I'd heard for ages.

I did warn him before the referendum that it wasn't going to be as easy as just leaving. It's shocking how really intelligent people have been conned by these used car salesmen.

[HanoiVillan]

 

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

 

Why is that breaking news? It's what they always said... ah sorry it's Nottingham, the carrier pigeons probably only just made it

[HanoiVillan]

7 minutes ago, bickster said:

Why is that breaking news? It's what they always said... ah sorry it's Nottingham, the carrier pigeons probably only just made it

Michael Gove recently said there would be one, and of course all of the leadership candidates promised to do one during their TV debate. 

[bickster]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Michael Gove recently said there would be one, and of course all of the leadership candidates promised to do one during their TV debate. 

Yes I remember the debate thing but that was almost instantly watered down once Johnson got elected, didn't know about Gove's statement. He's as big a liar as Johnson tbh

[bannedfromHandV]

3 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

tbf you put it more eloquently than I could , any chance you can write a message for me to put in my wifes anniversary card whilst you're at it

 

 

Can I have a go:

Hey babe, happy birthday.

Hope you have a great day.

Brexit means Brexit.

Love

Tony

 

 

[villaglint]

3 hours ago, desensitized43 said:

A friend of mine massively surprised me the other day by saying he was going to vote Lib Dem.

He's grown up in a Tory household. His father is the archetype Tory, 70s white man who used to own his own business and despises all things foreign and thinks those that are poor are basically "doing life wrong" or "should have tried harder". My friend naturally picked up a lot of that kind of nonsense and voted out in the referendum. As times gone on he's grown more frustrated at the process and in a conversation we had the other day said he now "couldn't be bothered with the whole thing as it was too hard and too much effort to leave" also didn't like what the Tories are doing to services as his wife is a school teacher so he now hears how difficult a lot of their disgusting policies are. I just thought that the "cant be bothered" was just the most British thing I'd heard for ages.

I did warn him before the referendum that it wasn't going to be as easy as just leaving. It's shocking how really intelligent people have been conned by these used car salesmen.

So our sample size of two suggests it’s going to be close! I might put into a poll and write some headlines. 

[Chindie]

29 minutes ago, villaglint said:

So our sample size of two suggests it’s going to be close! I might put into a poll and write some headlines. 

Put it in a bar chart and it'll be good enough for a Lib Dem leaflet.

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

Put it in a bar chart and it'll be good enough for a Lib Dem leaflet.

"desensitized43's mate winning here! It's  a two-horse race, villaglint's business partner cannot win!"

[snowychap]

 

[snowychap]

And following on from that above, here's the IFS's pinned tweet about their election coverage:

 

[Demitri_C]

Ah Corbyn wants to clobber every one with higher inheritance tax. Lovely.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

14 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Ah Corbyn wants to clobber every one with higher inheritance tax. Lovely.

I suggest he is a little demob happy,  he can say what he likes. 

After the week the Tories had he should be riding high in polls and confidently striding towards no.10 IMO.  I am not entirely sure that is the reality at the moment.