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The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread


Jareth

Which Cunch of Bunts are you voting for?  

141 members have voted

  1. 1. Which Cunch of Bunts Gets Your Hard Fought Cross

    • The Evil Abusers Of The Working Man Dark Blue Team
      27
    • The Hopelessly Divided Unicorn Chasing Red Team
      67
    • The Couldn't Trust Them Even You Wanted To Yellow Team
      25
    • The Demagogue Worshiping Light Blue Corportation
      2
    • The Hippy Drippy Green Team
      12
    • One of the Parties In The Occupied Territories That Hates England
      0
    • I Live In Northern Ireland And My Choice Is Dictated By The Leader Of A Cult
      0
    • I'm Out There And Found Someone Else To Vote For
      8

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  • Poll closed on 12/12/19 at 23:00

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5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Temporarily maybe, he could easily be made a Lord at which point he could become PM. There is no "rule" saying the PM has to be an MP as far as I know

True, and indeed the initial PMs back in the 18th and 19th century were from the Lords; it would be a complete farce of democracy though, pushing the day to day politics back into the Lords (PM questions etc). Well, to be fair, I don't really know what would happen in that scenario though?! 

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1 minute ago, cyrusr said:

True, and indeed the initial PMs back in the 18th and 19th century were from the Lords; it would be a complete farce of democracy though, pushing the day to day politics back into the Lords (PM questions etc). Well, to be fair, I don't really know what would happen in that scenario though?! 

True but they don't like answering questions anyway :mrgreen:

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Remain Alliance Seats Announced

Quote

Three anti-Brexit parties have forged a general election pact in 60 seats across England and Wales.

The Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Plaid Cymru have agreed to field only one candidate between them in each of the constituencies, as part of a "Unite to Remain" alliance.

The Lib Dems will be the only one of the three parties to stand in 43 seats in England and Wales; the Green Party will be the sole representative of the alliance in 10 seats; and Plaid Cyrmu will stand alone of the parties in seven Welsh constituencies.

Sal Brinton, the Lib Dems' president, said: "This is an exciting day for those in the country who are committed to standing together and stopping Brexit.

"This is a numbers game. And these 29 Conservative-facing seats could make all the difference in terms of stopping Boris Johnson returning to Number 10 and denying him a majority.

"Labour's failure to engage in this process could be fundamental, but we are confident that in these 60 seats, we can make a real difference, and we can stop Brexit and build a brighter future for this country."

Which seats are part of the pro-Remain alliance?

England

Green Party: Brighton Pavilion, Isle of Wight, Bristol West, Bury St Edmunds, Stroud, Dulwich and West Norwood, Forest of Dean, Cannock Chase, Exeter

Liberal Democrats: Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Buckingham, Cheadle, Chelmsford, Chelsea and Fulham, Cheltenham, Chippenham, Esher and Walton, Finchley and Golders Green, Guildford, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Hitchin and Harpenden, North Cornwall, North Norfolk, Oxford West and Abingdon, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Portsmouth South, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton, North Rushcliffe, South Cambridgeshire, South East Cambridgeshire, South West Surrey, Southport, Taunton Deane, Thornbury and Yate, Totnes, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wantage, Warrington South, Watford, Wells, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Witney, York

Wales

Green Party: Vale of Glamorgan

Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central, Montgomeryshire

Plaid Cymru: Arfon, Caerphilly, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Dwyfor, Meirionnydd, Llanelli, Pontypridd, Ynys Môn

And the parties will stand aside completely in three other seats

The three parties will also step aside completely in three other constituencies.

These were won at the last election by candidates who went on to sit as independent MPs in the House of Commons.

They are:

Beaconsfield: Won in 2017 by former Tory minister Dominic Grieve, who is now an independent candidate

Broxtowe: Won in 2017 by former Tory minister Anna Soubry, who is now an Independent Group for Change candidate.

Luton South: Won in 2017 by former Labour MP Gavin Shuker, who is now an independent candidate

If they win all 63 seats, that will be a very significant force. Pleased but a little surprised Greens have got 10 possible seats there. 

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17 minutes ago, bickster said:

To be fair if your current environments are Stoke, Warrington, Newport and the BBC you'd be forgiven for thinking the UK is full of mentalists. It isn't

hahaha yeah fair play!

I don't know guys, I didn't think in a month of Sundays that Donald Trump would become president, I couldn't see anything beyond a huge majority voting to remain in the EU.......I think we're being potentially a bit dismissive of the damage the BP and Farage might wield on this process, and subsequently the country.

But yeah, living in total shitholes where most people can't differentiate between their IQ scores and their shoe sizes may have affected my thinking!

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2 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

I don't know guys, I didn't think in a month of Sundays that Donald Trump would become president, I couldn't see anything beyond a huge majority voting to remain in the EU.......I think we're being potentially a bit dismissive of the damage the BP and Farage might wield on this process, and subsequently the country.

Agree with all of this, but this is a major problem with populism. 

What appears to be showing though, is that the NF Party aren't going to take votes from the pro-remain parties, it is going to be from Tories and Labour. I am sure that someone posted something the other day that actually those hard brexit Labour voters already likely switched to Tories in 2017 election. Therefore there are unlikely to be huge numbers of Labour voters going to NF Party. The biggest defections are likely going to come from the Tories, which would allow Labour and/or the remain party to sneak in. Brexit Party will have a significant role to play, but probably not in the way you think. 

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33 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

Agree with all of this, but this is a major problem with populism. 

What appears to be showing though, is that the NF Party aren't going to take votes from the pro-remain parties, it is going to be from Tories and Labour. I am sure that someone posted something the other day that actually those hard brexit Labour voters already likely switched to Tories in 2017 election. Therefore there are unlikely to be huge numbers of Labour voters going to NF Party. The biggest defections are likely going to come from the Tories, which would allow Labour and/or the remain party to sneak in. Brexit Party will have a significant role to play, but probably not in the way you think. 

I posted it the other day , but ICM are estimating a 11% switch from Tory to Brexit party  ..however they are also estimating a 12% switch from Labour to the Libs  , so in terms of the big 2 I guess it remains fairly equal ..where the switch votes become interesting is in FPTP where someone else linked a projection where the Libs   achieve 19% of the vote and get 45 seats and brexit party get 19% of votes and get 5 (don't get me started on 51 SNP seats for 3% )  ... some switch votes will count more than others i guess

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3 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I posted it the other day , but ICM are estimating a 11% switch from Tory to Brexit party  ..however they are also estimating a 12% switch from Labour to the Libs  , so in terms of the big 2 I guess it remains fairly equal ..where the switch votes become interesting is in FPTP where someone else linked a projection where the Libs   achieve 19% of the vote and get 45 seats and brexit party get 19% of votes and get 5 (don't get me started on 51 SNP seats for 3% )  ... some switch votes will count more than others i guess

Yeah think that's right. Labour's bigger worry will come from the Lib Dems rather than Brexit Party. Where in the country those switches are though will be significant.

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I'm not sure on that. People say all ukip/Brexit voters in Labour heartlands shipped to the Tories in 2017. But it this true?  In 2017 Labour promised to respect the referendum result. So why would they all need to change to Tories if Labour made that promise. This time around they are not. And overall Labour did better than expected.

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11 minutes ago, colhint said:

I'm not sure on that. People say all ukip/Brexit voters in Labour heartlands shipped to the Tories in 2017. But it this true?  In 2017 Labour promised to respect the referendum result. So why would they all need to change to Tories if Labour made that promise. This time around they are not. And overall Labour did better than expected.

What was it that caused the likes of Mansfield, Walsall, Derby, Middlesbrough and Copeland to go from Labour to Conservative in 2017 if Labour voters weren't switching that way?

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But by the same token held onto seats in strong leave areas. If I were an ardent leaver but have always voted Labour, what is my reason to switch, to the Tories if Labour are already promising what I want. 

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9 minutes ago, colhint said:

But by the same token held onto seats in strong leave areas. If I were an ardent leaver but have always voted Labour, what is my reason to switch, to the Tories if Labour are already promising what I want. 

They did, but often by reduced majorities. 

I understand what you're saying, but I think even if they can't articulate their ideas clearly, voters often have a perception of underlying party dynamics. In 2017 remainers were 'sorting' into Labour, and the rough perception of the average voter appears to have been that Labour were more for remainers and the Tories more for leavers. That very rough perception has been validated since by Labour's softening Brexit policy (Corbyn has even come out today in support of retaining free movement) and the Tories gradually finding a Brexit policy they can get behind. If leavers felt, deep in their bones, that Labour were giving lukewarm-at-best support for their concerns, they weren't wrong. 

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2 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

 

is that abandoned night club looking place as youwalk up to the curry house  still blatantly growing cannabis out of it ?

There's no doubting it's an interesting town! Always a pleasant sweet smell around the shopping streets. We opened a pound store there and crowds started gathering an hour before the opening and the local radio station turned up to broadcast live from the 'event'. People started busking and a dance broke out. Last minute, we had to organise crowd control staff and put some crash barriers in front of the windows.

It was Merthyr where some locals tried to thieve our portable staff kitchen facilities on a job we were working on. They'd potentially have got away with it too, had we not actually been sat in it when they tried to hitch it to their van.

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1 hour ago, colhint said:

But by the same token held onto seats in strong leave areas. If I were an ardent leaver but have always voted Labour, what is my reason to switch, to the Tories if Labour are already promising what I want. 

I think you're overcomplicating it. If someone wanted to think that Labour was going to deliver a leave result via their wishy-washy 2017 position, they can still convince themselves of that via their 2019 position.

Why does it need to be more complicated than "for a lot of Labour voters, their Labour loyalty is stronger than their Brexit loyalty"

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8 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

My guess is Corbyn.

Fine, but given he was there in 2017 that doesn't lend weight to the idea that there are loads of people who voted Labour in 2017 who will vote Conservative in 2019.

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