The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[cyrusr]

13 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Hmm you know it's bad if your having ex Labour mps telling voters to vote conservative as Corbyn apparently is not fit to run the country udner working under him.

 

He is also not standing for reelection (even as an independent), pro-Israel (so against Corbyn's position), allegedly working for Tories (according to McDonald - I haven't been able to verified), and generally has been anti-Corbyn from day 1. To be fair to Corbyn, he may not be the most neutral of observers. 

What is interesting is a point that Diane Abbott makes (I know!), where Ken Clarke whilst has not outright stated he wouldn't vote Tories, he has said he won't vote for this type of Tory government. That was a few days ago but not a word about it? 

[bickster]

Which ex-Labour MP are we talking about?

[Chindie]

20 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Hmm you know it's bad if your having ex Labour mps telling voters to vote conservative as Corbyn apparently is not fit to run the country udner working under him.

 

Everything Austin says about anything to do with the current Labour party should be taken with a grain of salt.

This is a man who hates Corbyn so much he heckled him during a response to the Chilcot inquiry on the Iraq war. He'd be hurling shit if Corbyn pledged to build a million hospitals.

[Chindie]

Just now, bickster said:

Which ex-Labour MP are we talking about?

Ian Austin

[markavfc40]

Ian Austin is the MP for Dudley North not the most affluent of areas. I'd be amazed if his soon to be ex constituents would be better off under a Johnson led Tory government than a Corbyn led Labour one. Basically his hatred of Corbyn has led Austin to do what he often does and talk out of his arse.

[bickster]

1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

Ian Austin is the MP for Dudley North not the most affluent of areas. I'd be amazed if his soon to be ex constituents would be better off under a Johnson led Tory government than a Corbyn led Labour one. Basically his hatred of Corbyn has led Austin to do what he often does and talk out of his arse.

His ideas on curbing immigration would have made Teresa May look socially inclusive

[bobzy]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

My guess is Corbyn.

For Mansfield, you'd be utterly wrong.  No idea on the others, though.

 

Edit:  That makes it seem like I'd know the voting intention of everyone in Mansfield - obviously not.  There may have been some who didn't vote Labour because of JC.

Edited November 7, 2019 by bobzy

[bobzy]

48 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Everything Austin says about anything to do with the current Labour party should be taken with a grain of salt.

This is a man who hates Corbyn so much he heckled him during a response to the Chilcot inquiry on the Iraq war. He'd be hurling shit if Corbyn pledged to build a million hospitals.

Yup.

 

Second biggest story on the BBC News site, though, and that's all that people will read/care about rather than anything else.

[bickster]

This LibDem candidate needs to get up to speed with his party's policy, he's calling for a referendum...doh

It does show that Southport is one of the election pact seats. Of the top of my head... it's a three way marginal. traditionally a LibDem seat but Labour made huge inroads here last time which allowed the Tory's through the middle to win. I think last time it went Tory, Lab, LibDem as the 1,2,3. It'll be an interesting seat to watch

 

[Chindie]

The remain pact stuff again seems to have more than a few problems. Seems they've targeted seats where incumbents are actually active Remainers, to some criticism.

[bickster]

Yep, just checked, here's the 2017 figures for Southport

General election 2017: Southport^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Damien Moore	18,541	38.7	+10.7
	Labour	Liz Savage	15,627	32.6	+13.4
	Liberal Democrat	Sue McGuire	12,661	26.4	−4.6
	UKIP	Terry Durrance	1,127	2.4	-14.5
Majority			2,914	6.1	+9.1
Turnout			47,956	69.1	+3.6
	Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat		Swing	1.4

wiki

 

[cyrusr]

13 minutes ago, bickster said:

This LibDem candidate needs to get up to speed with his party's policy, he's calling for a referendum...doh

To be fair, I got the impression that the Lib Dem policy was that if they got a majority, they would take it as a sign that the country wanted to remain and would revoke Article 50. Otherwise they will seek a 2nd referendum. Therefore suggesting either/or isn't against the party policy. Am I wrong in thinking this? 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, cyrusr said:

To be fair, I got the impression that the Lib Dem policy was that if they got a majority, they would take it as a sign that the country wanted to remain and would revoke Article 50. Otherwise they will seek a 2nd referendum. Therefore suggesting either/or isn't against the party policy. Am I wrong in thinking this? 

So he's campaigning not to win? Novel!

[cyrusr]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

So he's campaigning not to win? Novel!

Worked for Johnson during the Referendum didn't it  

[ml1dch]

14 minutes ago, bickster said:

Yep, just checked, here's the 2017 figures for Southport

General election 2017: Southport^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Damien Moore	18,541	38.7	+10.7
	Labour	Liz Savage	15,627	32.6	+13.4
	Liberal Democrat	Sue McGuire	12,661	26.4	−4.6
	UKIP	Terry Durrance	1,127	2.4	-14.5
Majority			2,914	6.1	+9.1
Turnout			47,956	69.1	+3.6
	Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat		Swing	1.4

wiki

 

But given it was a Lib Dem seat from 1997 - 2017, it's probably not one they are going to be keen to walk away from?

I also expect that they would be focusing on where they have a strong activist base and local representation, and holding a seat for 20 years is going to do that.

[HanoiVillan]

27 minutes ago, bickster said:

So he's campaigning not to win? Novel!

I think you could say he's being realistic about their chances. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

Walsall North was Labour from 1979. I assumed it still was until I looked yesterday.

[bickster]

23 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

But given it was a Lib Dem seat from 1997 - 2017, it's probably not one they are going to be keen to walk away from?

I also expect that they would be focusing on where they have a strong activist base and local representation, and holding a seat for 20 years is going to do that.

I expect them to retake it, that's my prediction. NF Corp are standing (UKIP got a significant 7k in 2015, which will dilute the Tory vote). I also expect the Libs to benefit from the Tories here

[bickster]

34 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I think you could say he's being realistic about their chances. 

Nah, he's just a typical winging it LibDem

[Newry_Villan]

I live in the North of Ireland and hope the DUP get smashed back to 1690....oh wait they've never left that year.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Newry_Villan