VillaChris Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Watford 0-0 with Palace. They have now drawn 0-0 at home to Palace, Bournemouth and Sheffield United. Also lost to Brighton, Burnley and West Ham. Can only imagine the reaction on here if we had that home run. Simply can't see how they're going to win enough games at home to have realistic chance of staying up. Still got both Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Leicester to play in their last 11 home games. Will need 6-7 home wins to have realistic chance of staying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 (edited) Yeah like mentioned Bournemouth might get into real trouble now. Seems like all their key players are injured except Wilson and Fraser. Edited December 7, 2019 by KenjiOgiwara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 (edited) I hope Bournemouth get relegated for no other reason than to make them rue selling Mings to us. And I don't even think Mings is worth 26 million. Edited December 7, 2019 by Laughable Chimp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Just now, Laughable Chimp said: I hope Bournemouth get relegated for no other reason than to make them rue selling MINGS. And I don't even think Mings is worth 260 million. Sorted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Pearson isn't the type of character you want in a relegation battle. Probably gonna bully his own players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermon Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 The most worrying thing for us is going to be who occupies the final relegation spot, think it'll be between us and Southampton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 If Everton hire Ferguson it willl be like the mamagerial lovechild of Paulo Di Canio and Tim Sherwood 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 5 hours ago, villalad21 said: And people are just assuming we'll beat the teams around us. I remember that attitude when we played Bournemouth. Ridiculous cockiness pre game and we lost the game. Apart from the Palace fiasco, we haven't lost a game to a rival since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Looks like we woke Manure from their slumbers! People are worrying about relegation, which is understandable but, we've played all bar Liverpool of the so-called big boys away from home. We still play both Mancs, Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs at home. We - the fans - will have our chance to make a difference and will probably need to. We have not hi g to fear from the teams in the bottom half. We just to make sure we take our 'A game' to those teams when we play them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 (edited) We could really do with a win tomorrow, put some wind in our sales for the Sheffield United game and the following 6 pointers. It’ll be interesting to who comes out on top of the Norwich - Sheff U game tomorrow. A draw wouldn’t be a bad result for us. While Southampton are away at Newcastle. It pains me to say it but I’d rather Bruce get the win for them. Edited December 7, 2019 by It's Your Round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zab6359 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 It would be so good to get something against Leicester, manure have just beat Citeh ffs anything is possible. The games starting with Sheff Utd up to the Watford at VP will shape our season, we've played some tough games up to now lets see how we perform against the teams around us I think by the end of Jan I will be either sleeping a little easier or anxious as ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 (edited) Decided to rank the bottom 10 teams in terms of shots conceded. Although keep in mind that some teams have played 1 more game than us at this point. Everton-16 games 154 shots conceded Watford-16 games 195 shots conceded West Ham-15 games 203 shots conceded Brighton-15 games 206 shots conceded Southampton-15 games 210 shots conceded Burnley-16 games 216 shots conceded Newcastle-15 games 232 shots conceded Bournemouth-16 games 245 shots conceded Norwich-15 games 257 shots conceded. Aston Villa-15 games 282 shots conceded A bit disconcerting this. Conceded 30 more shots than next worse and most likely a relegation candidate Norwich and we all know how shit their defence is. Edited December 7, 2019 by Laughable Chimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thejoker Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 The shots conceded table might look a bit better for us when all the other teams have played Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd away from home. We've had quite a ridiculous run of away games when you consider we’ve also played Palace and Wolves too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 (edited) 51 minutes ago, thejoker said: The shots conceded table might look a bit better for us when all the other teams have played Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd away from home. We've had quite a ridiculous run of away games when you consider we’ve also played Palace and Wolves too. Palace and Wolves don't have a lot shots tbf, Palace in particular having the joint worst amount of shots in the league. The thing is, these big teams have also played the teams around us at home and even then we've generally conceded more shots than them. Tottenham have played Villa(31 shots), Newcastle(17 shots), Bournemouth(15 shots), Burnley(13 shots), Watford(12 shots), Southampton(9 shots), all at home. Arsenal have played Villa(21 shots), Burnley(15 shots), Bournemouth(12 shots), Southampton(12 shots), Brighton(12 shots) at home. Keep in mind, Arsenal were down to 10 men for most of the match. Man City have played Watford(28 shots), Southampton(26 shots), Villa(25 shots), Brighton(15 shots), at home. Better for Villa I guess, but not by much. Chelsea have played Villa(25 shots), Brighton(24 shots), West Ham(19 shots), Newcastle(16 shots) at home. Man United have played Brighton(21 shots), Villa(16 shots) at home. So out of all the "easy games" the big teams have played at their home ground, we're still right up on the top of that list in terms of shots conceded. If you want to look at the average amount of goals conceded in away games to the big teams it would be Villa-23.6 shots conceded Watford-20 shots conceded West Ham-19 shots conceded Brighton-18 shots conceded Newcastle-16.5 shots conceded Southampton-15.7 shots conceded Burnley-14 shots conceded Bournemouth-13.5 shots conceded And its not as if this is a problem only happening to big teams with us, its happening against other teams too. We conceded 20 shots or more against the likes of Palace who have the worst amount of shots taken in the league although to be fair we were playing with 10 men, Norwich and Brighton who were also playing with 10 men against us for most of the match. Like conceding 20 shots or more against a team who are playing with 10 men for most of the match should not happen imo. Edited December 8, 2019 by Laughable Chimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicVillan Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said: And its not as if this is a problem only happening to big teams with us, its happening against other teams too. We conceded 20 shots or more against the likes of Palace who have the worst amount of shots taken in the league although to be fair we were playing with 10 men, Norwich and Brighton who were also playing with 10 men against us for most of the match. Like conceding 20 shots or more against a team who are playing with 10 men for most of the match should not happen imo. So why are we conceding so many shots. We make a lot of blocks as well, are those counted? Too open in the midfield ? Insistence on playing wide men ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) 28 minutes ago, CosmicVillan said: So why are we conceding so many shots. We make a lot of blocks as well, are those counted? Too open in the midfield ? Insistence on playing wide men ? I believe they're counted yes. Honestly, I don't know. TRO has been going around posting a lot about how we're not aggresive enough or something like that and whilst I don't personally see it, I could see that being the possible problem. I mentioned this at some point in the past, but there's a reason why the Norwich game was so entertaining and open and both teams managed to put more than 20 shots against the other team. It was like either midfield was non-existent as teams raced from one side to the other for counter after counter. Its perhaps no coincidence that both us and Norwich have the most shots conceded in the league. So, perhaps the reason why we've been conceding so many is the same as Norwich? 2 ex-Championship teams that have been playing like they still think they are dominating games in the Championship, but doing it in the PL just leaves you found out and constantly under pressure from the opposing teams. Now have a look at Sheffield and how they've conceded less goals in the league than any other team other than Leicester and Liverpool and they are reaping the rewards from it. I didn't watch Sheffield in the Championship but I can't comment on how different their play has been compared to now but Chris Wilder has definitely tactically prepared his team much better for life in the PL than either Smith or Farke. It is interesting how Sheffield have managed to do so well and conceded so little goals compared to us and Norwich and I wonder what Wilder has done with his team that he was able to prepare his team so much better than us. Another thing to add, I watched the Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace game and I was mightily impressed with how capable Crystal Palace's entire team was at defending, something I've never seen us do. Bournemouth made sideways pass after sideways pass, they just could not break down 10 men Palace no matter what they tried and were hit on the counter. It makes me ask, why can't we do anything remotely like that with 11 men? I don't think our midfield is terrible, Nakamba and Mcginn are good players and Hourihane and Luiz have their moments. So why is our midfield so easy to cut through like butter? I've noticed that Mcginn has been playing much more deep than he was earlier in the season, perhaps to rectify this problem and make him concentrate on his midfield duties but I do think its just made him more ineffective as an attacker than actually strengthening our midfield. But yeah, that's all I can think of. All I know is, it is a problem and I do think its a tactical or coaching problem I feel, not a lack of good players problem or lack of experience problem Edited December 8, 2019 by Laughable Chimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rightdm00 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said: Palace and Wolves don't have a lot shots tbf, Palace in particular having the joint worst amount of shots in the league. The thing is, these big teams have also played the teams around us at home and even then we've generally conceded more shots than them. Tottenham have played Villa(31 shots), Newcastle(17 shots), Bournemouth(15 shots), Burnley(13 shots), Watford(12 shots), Southampton(9 shots), all at home. Arsenal have played Villa(21 shots), Burnley(15 shots), Bournemouth(12 shots), Southampton(12 shots), Brighton(12 shots) at home. Keep in mind, Arsenal were down to 10 men for most of the match. Man City have played Watford(28 shots), Southampton(26 shots), Villa(25 shots), Brighton(15 shots), at home. Better for Villa I guess, but not by much. Chelsea have played Villa(25 shots), Brighton(24 shots), West Ham(19 shots), Newcastle(16 shots) at home. Man United have played Brighton(21 shots), Villa(16 shots) at home. So out of all the "easy games" the big teams have played at their home ground, we're still right up on the top of that list in terms of shots conceded. If you want to look at the average amount of goals conceded in away games to the big teams it would be Villa-23.6 shots conceded Watford-20 shots conceded West Ham-19 shots conceded Brighton-18 shots conceded Newcastle-16.5 shots conceded Southampton-15.7 shots conceded Burnley-14 shots conceded Bournemouth-13.5 shots conceded And its not as if this is a problem only happening to big teams with us, its happening against other teams too. We conceded 20 shots or more against the likes of Palace who have the worst amount of shots taken in the league although to be fair we were playing with 10 men, Norwich and Brighton who were also playing with 10 men against us for most of the match. Like conceding 20 shots or more against a team who are playing with 10 men for most of the match should not happen imo. Looking at shots conceded isolated like that just isn't a good stat. Considering that blocked shots, shot's that are shanked 30 yards over the goal and slow rollers your nan could save are all counted as equal shots. It's pretty hard to determine much from shots conceded without added context. Understat.com does a good job of tracking expected goals for and against. Give it a look. It will show that Villa concede a bunch of low quality shots every game. Still not a good defensive team but shots conceded isnt a real pressing issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Rightdm00 said: Looking at shots conceded isolated like that just isn't a good stat. Considering that blocked shots, shot's that are shanked 30 yards over the goal and slow rollers your nan could save are all counted as equal shots. It's pretty hard to determine much from shots conceded without added context. Understat.com does a good job of tracking expected goals for and against. Give it a look. It will show that Villa concede a bunch of low quality shots every game. Still not a good defensive team but shots conceded isnt a real pressing issue. The thing is, having a lot of low quality shots will add up your expected goals conceded over time and I think our high expected goals conceded is a result of this. After all, we are still 17th in terms of expected goals conceded, so its not really that much better and we're 19th in terms of expected goals conceded from open play, only very slightly above Watford and significantly lower than next placed Southampton. Furthermore, understat lists us as having a 0.1 expected goals conceded per shot in open play which you could say is a measure of the average quality of shots we've been conceding in open play. Here's a comparison with the other bottom 10 teams. Watford-0.14 Norwich-0.12 Southampton-0.12 West Ham-0.15 Bournemouth-0.11 Everton-0.15 Burnley-0.11 Brighton-0.13 Newcastle-0.13 So yes, we are generally conceding lower quality chances on average although in some of these cases, the difference is pretty marginal. But again, even though we are conceding less dangerous shots on average per shot, the fact that we're still 19th place in therms of average expected goals conceded in open play shows that the amount of shots we've been conceding is still too much in spite of it. Note: Using the open play stat because I can't be arsed combining all the different types of shots into one total shot stat and the majority of shots conceded are going to be from open play anyway so it should be somewhat a fair picture. I love understat, but there are definitely things that can be improved on there. They don't even have a goal per 90 stat for some reason even thouh they have the stats for minutes played, goals scored, shots per 90 and expected goals per 90. Edited December 8, 2019 by Laughable Chimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 7 hours ago, thejoker said: The shots conceded table might look a bit better for us when all the other teams have played Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd away from home. We've had quite a ridiculous run of away games when you consider we’ve also played Palace and Wolves too. We conceded 20+ shots against Norwich and Brighton as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said: Honestly, I don't know. TRO has been going around posting a lot about how we're not aggresive enough or something like that and whilst I don't personally see it, I could see that being the possible problem. It's because of our style of play. Smith even admitted to it in a pre match interview, think it was the pre match Newcastle interview he said it. He said something like "We want to attack with a lot of players going forward and as a consequence we will leave ourselves a bit exposed at the back at times" We might lack a bit match fitness and aggressiveness, but our style of play is the main reason to why we concede loads of goals and chances. Brentford conceded loads under Smith, Walsall as well. This will just be something you have to accept under Smith. Edited December 8, 2019 by villalad21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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