18/19 Race for Promotion

[Eastie]

1 hour ago, Sam3773 said:

Edit: Wrong topic. 

While I'm here... We're going up! One day. 

 

[S-Platt]

20 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

Well, without Abraham this season we'd certainly be on for relegation. 

Not sure Kodjia would have bagged that chance in the first 5 minutes yesterday by rounding the keeper.  Think he would have scored a few of the chances Tammy has missed and conversely not been in the position to tap in some that Tammy has scored.  I would say similar goal outputs played in the same position.

[sidcow]

10 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Yes, sack managers every 10 games and secure infinite new manager effect.

It's a bold strategy for sure but it's hard to see what could possibly go wrong

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by sidcow

[Sam3773]

If we win every game between now and the end of the season, we'll match our final points tally from last season. 

[/thread] 

[briny_ear]

17 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Yes, sack managers every 10 games and secure infinite new manager effect.

Smith’s good patch only lasted for about six weeks so we need to change managers much more frequently than you suggest.

[New_Hope]

10 hours ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

Well, without Abraham this season we'd certainly be on for relegation. 

And IF my auntie was my uncle......

[villa4europe]

if we'd have won the playoffs last season we would be playing in the championship in 2019/20

if smith by miracle dragged us in to the PL this season we would be playing in the championship in 2020/21

but there's no danger of that so we will be playing in the championship in 2019/20

looking at us there is nothing to suggest that promotion would be anything other than a disaster similar to our last season there, we're simply not ready to go up, our house is not in order

[sne]

4 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

if we'd have won the playoffs last season we would be playing in the championship in 2019/20

if smith by miracle dragged us in to the PL this season we would be playing in the championship in 2020/21

but there's no danger of that so we will be playing in the championship in 2019/20

looking at us there is nothing to suggest that promotion would be anything other than a disaster similar to our last season there, we're simply not ready to go up, our house is not in order

But I'm sure we could have used the £100-200m windfall

[villa4europe]

7 minutes ago, sne said:

But I'm sure we could have used the £100-200m windfall

but could we?

more experienced players on huge wages that cripple us once we are back down? the last business model the club had could potentially have royally **** us, will interesting to see what happens to fulhams new team if they drop because their season so far is exactly what i would have guessed for us

thats what i mean by get our house in order

Edited February 17, 2019 by villa4europe

[sne]

Just now, villa4europe said:

but could we?

more experienced players on huge wages that cripple us once we are back down? the last business model the club had could potentially have royally **** us, will interesting to see what happens to fulhams new team if they drop because their season so far is exactly what i would have guessed for us

You think the new owners will make the same mistakes as Xia and Lerner?

Sure that's possible.

But thinking we'll be allowed to slowly build a good squad in the Championship with no money and not have our best players poached is unlikely imo.

[villa4europe]

1 minute ago, sne said:

You think the new owners will make the same mistakes as Xia and Lerner?

Sure that's possible.

But thinking we'll be allowed to slowly build a good squad in the Championship with no money and not have our best players poached is unlikely imo.

no not the same problems but getting promoted and needing to buy at least 7 players* just to get anywhere near competing, thats a mammoth task that i struggle to see us getting right

* RB, CB, LB, CM, RW, LW, ST and thats being kind and still leaves us with some shit on the bench

[sne]

2 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

no not the same problems but getting promoted and needing to buy at least 7 players* just to get anywhere near competing, thats a mammoth task that i struggle to see us getting right

* RB, CB, LB, CM, RW, LW, ST and thats being kind and still leaves us with some shit on the bench

Agreed.

I just think we'll have just as hard doing it in the Championship.

It'll be much cheaper for sure, but we'll also have only a fraction of the money to do it with.

[Sam3773]

19 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

no not the same problems but getting promoted and needing to buy at least 7 players* just to get anywhere near competing, thats a mammoth task that i struggle to see us getting right

* RB, CB, LB, CM, RW, LW, ST and thats being kind and still leaves us with some shit on the bench

I suspect promotion was all but given up on in January, hence sending the youth out for first team football. I think we'll see a few of them integrated into the first team over the summer, along with many, many cheap transfers and hopefully a little help from uncle Jorge. 

[romavillan]

15 minutes ago, sne said:

Agreed.

I just think we'll have just as hard doing it in the Championship.

It'll be much cheaper for sure, but we'll also have only a fraction of the money to do it with.

Only up side to doing it down here is that maybe you get a few who can make the step up, you develop them they come up with you and their value goes through the roof. We've been buying high and selling low or not being able to sell and can't get rid tilla long lucrative contract has run out instead and it's nearly killed us. Either way when you go up you have to invest heavily, we have a HUGE rebuild to do in the summer, probably in the order of turning over 15-20 players. Mental.

[Eastie]

10 minutes ago, Sam3773 said:

I suspect promotion was all but given up on in January, hence sending the youth out for first team football. I think we'll see a few of them integrated into the first team over the summer, along with many, many cheap transfers and hopefully a little help from uncle Jorge. 

trust in Jesus - he will sort it 

[Davkaus]

11 hours ago, S-Platt said:

Not sure Kodjia would have bagged that chance in the first 5 minutes yesterday by rounding the keeper.  Think he would have scored a few of the chances Tammy has missed and conversely not been in the position to tap in some that Tammy has scored.  I would say similar goal outputs played in the same position.

Are we talking about the guy who's scored 5 goals in the last 2 seasons? Injuries have played there part, and he's frequently out on the wings, but he's 29 and has had 2 decent seasons in front of goal.

We'd be completely in the shit without Abraham. He's an exceptional young talent who'll go on to compete at a much higher level. "Jimmy Danger" is a lower league journeyman. 

[Sam3773]

14 minutes ago, Eastie said:

trust in Jesus - he will sort it 

He was on ITV playing tiddlywinks with James Haskell last night so I won't hold my breath. 

No but really, I have faith. Praise be. 

[villa4europe]

26 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Only up side to doing it down here is that maybe you get a few who can make the step up, you develop them they come up with you and their value goes through the roof. We've been buying high and selling low or not being able to sell and can't get rid tilla long lucrative contract has run out instead and it's nearly killed us. Either way when you go up you have to invest heavily, we have a HUGE rebuild to do in the summer, probably in the order of turning over 15-20 players. Mental.

completely agree, we've bought far too many players at the height of their potential with no or very little resale value and worst of all probably not good enough for the PL anyway

the model should be youngsters who will get better after we've bought them and hopefully develop in to PL players, if we dont go up and are forced to sell we sell them to PL clubs for silly money meaning we can reinvest 

might as well even call it the james maddison model

we need 3 or 4 of him this summer

[Merson08]

After the West Brom game Aston Villa have 44 points out of a possible 99. The final projected points total will currently be 61 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 39 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 83 points.

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Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 62 points that is points after 46 games. That has included of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.38PPG from Smith. Using 1.38PPG over the remaining 13 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th. 

[Merson08]

11 hours ago, villa4europe said:

completely agree, we've bought far too many players at the height of their potential with no or very little resale value and worst of all probably not good enough for the PL anyway

the model should be youngsters who will get better after we've bought them and hopefully develop in to PL players, if we dont go up and are forced to sell we sell them to PL clubs for silly money meaning we can reinvest 

might as well even call it the james maddison model

we need 3 or 4 of him this summer

AKA The Norwich model. Every season they sell their best players and Daniel Farke's knowledge of the German league's as helped them with their promotion push. Good luck to them.