General Election 2017

[darrenm]

37 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

My Facebook feed seems to be full of pictures of people's kids and cats. I'm therefore expecting either Boss Baby or Garfield to win the election.

(apologies darrenm if you think me making a joke is aiding our Tory overlords)

More seriously, as I said previously I think using social media as any form of barometer of voter intentions is utterly flawed for a number of reasons and has previously been shown to be.

I think to view it as being representative that Corbyn is doing better than just about every other indicator suggests is in danger of being an example confirmation bias.

It's as if nobody read what I wrote

 Is it another young Vs old like brexit? Then will this new influx of newly registered young voters make a difference?

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

It was a generalisation, based on my own experiences.

It isn't unfair to say that generally people born in 50s/60s/70s bought cheap houses on low mortgages with low deposits, had free university, and their wealth comes from that. My parents were able to sell a terraced house in Birmingham and buy a 3 bed semi in a village for 70k. Now it's worth nearly 300k. That isn't just inflation.

you included "messed it all up " though as part of your comment  ... I'm not convinced that your parents (for example ) have ruined any 18 year olds future by their actions ,anymore than mine have (for example)

Edited April 26, 2017 by tonyh29

[itdoesntmatterwhatthissay]

2 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

You missed "the biggest block who pulled young people out of the EU"

Young people didn't vote in great enough numbers so perhaps the EU wasn't that important to them?

Also houses prices are unaffordable,welfare has been cut, free education is no more but the EU continues do ignore their stakeholders as trade is so important....leaving the EU might be the best thing to have happened to young people. Especially if it kicks the EU and the UK up the behind.  

Edited April 26, 2017 by itdoesntmatterwhatthissay

[itdoesntmatterwhatthissay]

6 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

you included "messed it all up " though as part of your comment  ... I'm not convinced that your parents (for example ) have ruined any 18 years old future by their actions ,anymore than mine have (for example)

Depends, did they vote Labour in 2001 and 2005?

[mockingbird_franklin]

Tony is correct, yes they may have been influenced to see property as a way to make a fast buck, but the majority of the problem comes from deregulation of the banking sector and both the red and blue tory party are to blame for that. wasn't it mervin king who said we have the worst possible banking system, and that banking system had many of the checks and balances removed.

 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, darrenm said:

Slightly offended you'd think I'd be so naive to not realise how that works. Hence why I described in detail how even the Theresa May facebook page has mostly just abuse for the Tories and May there. And the same with all the papers. Yes if you stay inside your own bubble you will only see what is of interest to you, but as I described above, it's the same story for social media as a whole.

No offence intended at all. My point really is that social media is self-selecting. It's not a balanced reflection or measure of anything and so if someone were to use that as a guide or indicator that would be to give weight where it doesn't acurately fit. I don't look at the Daily Mail site much if I can help it, but it's absolutely full, often when I do, of vile uber-UKIPy drivel. A lot of newspaper sites and general below the line commentary is absolutely horrible all over the internets, but people in real life are not that horrible. It's unrepresentative. I accept we both know that, which is why it was worth people commenting on your observation. Anyway, sorry for slightly offending you. I didn't mean to.

[Rodders]

i wonder if there's half a chance of a shy corbyn vote  I just can't be bothered to say anything anymore generally. The trolls on the websites seem to be unrelentingly full of unpleasant attacks on JC + Labour and co ( not exclusive to them I hasten to add, just there seems to be an awful lot of it ) and who likes to engage with such aggression?  I'll quietly end up voting for him ( no doubt my one and only vote for Labour assuming some form of post election putsch takes place ) but talking about it in the mean time? Nah. ( well except this post, and maybe one or two more )   It's so tiring seeing the same shit, that slogan about chaos coalition - effective no doubt, but just rubbish. To someone who is hooked in with a one-liner, what's the point? 

I saw a headline on the BBC with Keir Starmer saying immigration shouldn't be the immediate priority ( true! ) yet people will ignore the rest of what he says and claim labour aren't listening etc. Bugger it all. 

[mjmooney]

Not all baby boomers are selfish Tories. 

[sharkyvilla]

I'm pretty sure it'll come down to the fact that of the 52% that voted Leave last year, most of them will be happy with the direction the government are taking with Brexit and vote for them.  The people who want us to remain at all costs will have no option but to vote Lib Dem.. Other issues seem to be taking a backseat in this election on the whole, so it leaves little room for Labour as it stands.  I think their best hope is to lose, move on from Corbyn and go with Lewis and hammer the Tories over Brexit for the next 5 years.  I'm not convinced Corbyn would even stand down if they get annihilated in the election though.

[StefanAVFC]

8 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

I'm pretty sure it'll come down to the fact that of the 52% that voted Leave last year, most of them will be happy with the direction the government are taking with Brexit and vote for them.  

I'm not so sure.

The hardcore Brexit lot are constantly on about how May isn't going hard enough and there's also the regret Brexiteer too.

[sharkyvilla]

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

I'm not so sure.

The hardcore Brexit lot are constantly on about how May isn't going hard enough and there's also the regret Brexiteer too.

Thing is I don't think there will be a 'harder' Brexit version to vote for so she will lap up those votes anyway.  True about the second bit, but I think there will also be remain Tory voters who will also still vote that way to more than make up for it.  I'm just trying to work out where this 45-49% in the polls is coming from and whether there is any chance of it falling away.  It seems unlikely to me.

[TrentVilla]

44 minutes ago, darrenm said:

It's as if nobody read what I wrote

 

 

Read it and thought the question itself was flawed for the reasons already given.

[StefanAVFC]

Just now, sharkyvilla said:

Thing is I don't think there will be a 'harder' Brexit version to vote for so she will lap up those votes anyway.  

Ill rephrase it. The hardcore Brexiteers don't trust May to implement their vision of a ridiculously hard Brexit.

They just hate the EU.

[Rodders]

but those voters will go for May over the other options though. If they're hardcore, they aren't going to like Labour's lest keep what we can, or Lib Dems' **** it, we want to go back. 

Edited April 26, 2017 by Rodders

[bobzy]

The majority of voters will not read into what the parties are offering and they won't compare and reflect on the likely impact stated policies may have on their lives.  I cannot see any reason why anyone who does this and is under, say, 35 would currently vote for a Conservative government.

What a whole host of voters like is a really simple message that they can back and then forget about politics for any <x> number of years.  The exact thing happened with Brexit, which no-one really knows the long-term implications of.  However, it's real easy to get behind "control our borders".

At the moment, the media (be it social or otherwise) is telling us that Corbyn would be a terrible leader (why?) and that the Tories are best placed to "guide us through Brexit" (why?) - therefore, it will be a Tory landslide.

[Nicho]

Standard work conversations: Im voting for May as I like her, do you know any of her policies? No

Im voting May as she looks like she gets things done

Im not voting for Corbyn as he needs a shave

I work with mainly under 35. Again cant understand how any of them would vote conservative, they are all paid what I am so cant afford private school, health, pension or a first home.

The media have portrayed Corbyn as some sort of mongrel, however, I feel that now the coverage is becoming political instead of personal there is a bit of a sentiment change towards labour and Corbyn. 

[Davkaus]

May has refused to guarantee the pension triple lock will be preserved. A questionable choice ahead of an election, but scrapping it is definitely the right thing to do.

Corbyn seems to think that guaranteeing a minimum of a 2.5% payrise for pensioners every year while workers get nothing of the sort is a solid policy. FFS. 

[Davkaus]

And Corbyn isn't going to take part in the TV debates if May doesn't...What?!

May is probably pissing herself as she hears that news. 

Edited April 26, 2017 by Davkaus

[Chindie]

10 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

And Corbyn isn't going to take part in the TV debates if May doesn't...What?!

May is probably pissing herself as she hears that news. 

Can we change the slogan to 'it isn't happening' yet?

A man that desperately needs mass media exposure to get his point across is going to turn it down because...?

Fool.

[itdoesntmatterwhatthissay]

58 minutes ago, bobzy said:

The majority of voters will not read into what the parties are offering and they won't compare and reflect on the likely impact stated policies may have on their lives.  I cannot see any reason why anyone who does this and is under, say, 35 would currently vote for a Conservative government.

What a whole host of voters like is a really simple message that they can back and then forget about politics for any <x> number of years.  The exact thing happened with Brexit, which no-one really knows the long-term implications of.  However, it's real easy to get behind "control our borders".

At the moment, the media (be it social or otherwise) is telling us that Corbyn would be a terrible leader (why?) and that the Tories are best placed to "guide us through Brexit" (why?) - therefore, it will be a Tory landslide.

Okay, I'll give you a few reasons that aren't wrapped in convenient stats. (eg- levels of employment which are skewed by temp work and zero hours contracts)

T-Levels - About bloody time. Apprenticeships are vital and thank god they have been a focus so we could progress to T-Levels. Concentrating exclusively on pre-16 is wrong.
Fairer Funding in Schools - Suddenly Labour are vehemently against it on the grounds they would spend more....not deliver more! Many teachers also support the policy.
Housing - Whatever people say IT IS local authorities that are stopping supply coming through, May is changing Cameron's 'demand' direction and thank god, because Labour don't get it and created this mess in the first place! Especially in London. HA's are even impacted by local politics.
Brexit - Do you want a party who understands the seriousness of the decision or one which says they understand but don't speak to industry? Tories listen, Labour often look for soundbites.
Increase in personal tax allowance - We can thank the Lib Dems for this, but again, the Tories do listen to good advice and May is much better than Cameron for it.

Of course there are many reasons against but I agree, 'the majority of voters will not read into what the parties are offering and they won't compare and reflect on the likely impact stated policies may have on their lives.' You may have illustrated that perfectly...

Your brexit reasoning can also be applied to joining the EU too. Nobody told the people we'd swap manufacturing for arts, state aid (no matter how necessary/relevant) for a European court, local for big business and an increase from 9 to 28 voting members. Yet that's what happened and was always going to happen......just like the likely change we'd leave the single market etc....people have to think about the consequences too, you can't just blame politicians for campaigns or we'd be savaging remain every day!

Finally, the Corbyn criticism is a disgrace and I agree wholeheartedly. I'm really angry that he never got a proper chance. Though, he's not really progressed his message while in debates and his replies are often soundbites or confused ramblings (though generally great content).
The party is to blame and the media loves an ongoing scoop but he doesn't help himself, for example, he still sticks to Diane Abbot like 'ahem' and it must be great to know all those incredibly bright under 28 years olds to take up senior positions......

Edited April 26, 2017 by itdoesntmatterwhatthissay