General Election 2017

[tonyh29]

in other news I see  Corbyn has been buoyed by winning the backing of the Communist Party of Britain, which has announced it will not field any candidates for the first time in history to back the Labour leader.

 

so that's another 1229 votes in the bag 

[a m ole]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

are you one of them ?

I could sorta understand having a public holiday like Thatcher day  , Cromwell day , people that shaped this country for the better , something we can all celebrate and be proud of  , but St Patrick's day ...do me a favour .. we have more Poles living here than Irish ... and Indians  for that matter  ...

 

That's just not true.

[HanoiVillan]

10 minutes ago, a m ole said:

That's just not true.

To be fair, according to the Migration Observatory it is. 

Edit: sorry, should have said, am on mobile so can't post link. But Google and you'll find their report from 21st February this year

Edited April 24, 2017 by HanoiVillan

[OutByEaster?]

It's about even according to a quick google squizz - there are slightly more people living in the UK born in Ireland than there are people living in the UK born in Poland. However, when you go back to grandparent's the Irish win by a count of about eight to one.

 

[a m ole]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

To be fair, according to the Migration Observatory it is. 

What's the criteria? Born in the country or have parents or grandparents born in the country?

I mean, there's 1.8m in Northern Ireland, mostly Northern Irish. It's obviously a touchy subject, but Saint Patrick is also their patron saint.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

a public holiday like Thatcher day

I'd rather go to work.

[OutByEaster?]

2 minutes ago, blandy said:

I'd rather go to work.

What if we all took the day off and went to the park?

We could have mounted police charge us with batons.

It's what she would have wanted.

[tonyh29]

16 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

What if we all took the day off and went to the park?

We could have mounted police charge us with batons.

It's what she would have wanted.

not all of us , just the ones from Up North

[TrentVilla]

6 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

not all of us , just the ones from Up North

She would never have let people up north have a park.

[mjmooney]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

I'd rather go to work.

Apparently back in the days of the Soviet bloc, Lenin's birthday was a sort of 'anti-holiday'. You were expected to work extra hard, skip lunch, etc. If it fell on a weekend, you went in to work. 

It wasn't actually compulsory, but you could end up in the shit if you ignored it. 

[darrenm]

3 hours ago, Risso said:

I have to say that is just about THE funniest thing I've read on here.  "It's happening," indeed, good grief. 

I'm glad I amuse you.

I hope it's happening, otherwise we're all ****.

[StefanAVFC]

1 hour ago, darrenm said:

I'm glad I amuse you.

I hope it's happening, otherwise we're all ****.

Not all of us.

If you have money you'll be okay.

[markavfc40]

37 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Not all of us.

If you have money you'll be okay.

Nearly right.

If you have money and no social conscience you'll be okay.

Edited April 24, 2017 by markavfc40

[darrenm]

2 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

Not all of us.

If you have money you'll be okay.

*Lots* of money

[HanoiVillan]

Shock Wales YouGov poll shows that Labour's Ukip nightmare is coming true

'An astonishing new poll for the Cardiff University Governance Centre and ITV Cymru shows a historic result: the Conservatives ending a 167-year wait for an election victory in Wales.

The numbers that matter:

Conservatives: 40 per cent

Labour: 30 per cent

Plaid Cymru: 13 per cent

Liberal Democrats: 8 per cent

Ukip: 6 per cent

Other: 3 per cent

And for context, here’s what happened in 2015:

Labour 36.9 per cent

Conservatives 27.2 per cent

Ukip 13.6 per cent

Plaid Cymru 12.1 per cent

Liberal Democrat 6.5 per cent

Others 2.6 per cent

There’s a lot to note here. If repeated at a general election, this would mean Labour losing an election in Wales for the first time since the First World War. In addition to losing the popular vote, they would shed ten seats to the Tories.

We're talking about a far more significant reverse than merely losing the next election. 

I don’t want to detract from how bad the Labour performance is in a vacuum – they have lost 6.9 per cent of their vote on 2015, in any case the worst election performance for Labour in Wales since the rout of 1983.  But the really terrifying thing for Labour is not what is happening to their own vote, though that is pretty terrifying.

It’s what’s happened to the Conservative vote – growing in almost every direction. There is some direct Labour to Tory slippage. But the big problem is the longtime fear of Labour MPs – that voting for Ukip would be a gateway drug to voting for the mainstream right – appears to be being realised. Don't forget that most of the Ukip vote in Wales is drawn from people who voted Labour in 2010. (The unnoticed shift of the 2010-5 parliament in a lot of places was a big chunk of the Labour 2010 vote went to Ukip, but was replaced by a chunk of the 2010 Liberal Democrat vote.) 

If repeated across the United Kingdom, the Tory landslide will be larger than the 114 majority suggested by the polls and a simple national swing.

As I’ve said before, polls are useful, but they are not the be-all and end-all. The bad news is that this very much supports the pattern at elections since the referendum – Labour falling back, the Tories losing some votes to the Liberal Democrats but more than making up the loss thanks to the collapse of Ukip.

The word from Welsh Labour is that these figures “look about right” at least as far as the drop in the Labour vote, though of course they have no idea what is going on with their opponents’ vote share. As for the Conservatives, their early experiences on the doorstep do show the Ukip vote collapsing to their benefit.'

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2017/04/shock-wales-yougov-poll-shows-labours-ukip-nightmare-coming-true

Labour look a decent bet to lose most, if not quite all, of Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff South & Cardiff West to the Tories, and could lose Ynys Mon to Plaid and Cardiff Central to Lib Dems (although that last one would be quite a big swing). Labour could well be down to nearly 15 seats. 

[Jon]

Laura Kuenssberg‏Verified account @bbclaurak 24h24 hours ago

"Corbyn in Scotland today, May not on the stump - seems tory strategy this morn to let labour stew in its own juice"

 

 

Nice 'impartial' tweet from Kuenssberg yesterday. Who needs to campaign when you've got the BBC's political correspondent doing it for you.

[Davkaus]

I enjoyed NEwsnight a couple of nights ago, that dug up videos of things Corbyn said decades ago and teared in to him, then had a ten minute segment on May and her husband, their long relaxing walks, and what a good team they are, all backed by very upbeat music. It's just a pro-government mouthpeice.

[Jon]

4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Shock Wales YouGov poll shows that Labour's Ukip nightmare is coming true

'An astonishing new poll for the Cardiff University Governance Centre and ITV Cymru shows a historic result: the Conservatives ending a 167-year wait for an election victory in Wales.

The numbers that matter:

Conservatives: 40 per cent

Labour: 30 per cent

Plaid Cymru: 13 per cent

Liberal Democrats: 8 per cent

Ukip: 6 per cent

Other: 3 per cent

And for context, here’s what happened in 2015:

Labour 36.9 per cent

Conservatives 27.2 per cent

Ukip 13.6 per cent

Plaid Cymru 12.1 per cent

Liberal Democrat 6.5 per cent

Others 2.6 per cent

There’s a lot to note here. If repeated at a general election, this would mean Labour losing an election in Wales for the first time since the First World War. In addition to losing the popular vote, they would shed ten seats to the Tories.

We're talking about a far more significant reverse than merely losing the next election. 

I don’t want to detract from how bad the Labour performance is in a vacuum – they have lost 6.9 per cent of their vote on 2015, in any case the worst election performance for Labour in Wales since the rout of 1983.  But the really terrifying thing for Labour is not what is happening to their own vote, though that is pretty terrifying.

It’s what’s happened to the Conservative vote – growing in almost every direction. There is some direct Labour to Tory slippage. But the big problem is the longtime fear of Labour MPs – that voting for Ukip would be a gateway drug to voting for the mainstream right – appears to be being realised. Don't forget that most of the Ukip vote in Wales is drawn from people who voted Labour in 2010. (The unnoticed shift of the 2010-5 parliament in a lot of places was a big chunk of the Labour 2010 vote went to Ukip, but was replaced by a chunk of the 2010 Liberal Democrat vote.) 

If repeated across the United Kingdom, the Tory landslide will be larger than the 114 majority suggested by the polls and a simple national swing.

As I’ve said before, polls are useful, but they are not the be-all and end-all. The bad news is that this very much supports the pattern at elections since the referendum – Labour falling back, the Tories losing some votes to the Liberal Democrats but more than making up the loss thanks to the collapse of Ukip.

The word from Welsh Labour is that these figures “look about right” at least as far as the drop in the Labour vote, though of course they have no idea what is going on with their opponents’ vote share. As for the Conservatives, their early experiences on the doorstep do show the Ukip vote collapsing to their benefit.'

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2017/04/shock-wales-yougov-poll-shows-labours-ukip-nightmare-coming-true

Labour look a decent bet to lose most, if not quite all, of Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff South & Cardiff West to the Tories, and could lose Ynys Mon to Plaid and Cardiff Central to Lib Dems (although that last one would be quite a big swing). Labour could well be down to nearly 15 seats. 

shows exactly why a progressive alliance Is needed IMO. Now more than ever. A fractured 'left' vote will result in Tory landslide, and 5 years of pretty far right May rule. Seems the further they go to the right, the more popular they become. Worrying times.

[HanoiVillan]

5 minutes ago, Jon said:

shows exactly why a progressive alliance Is needed IMO. Now more than ever. A fractured 'left' vote will result in Tory landslide, and 5 years of pretty far right May rule. Seems the further they go to the right, the more popular they become. Worrying times.

It shows exactly why a Labour vote is needed more than ever. A 'progressive alliance' is a disaster. 

[Jon]

5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It shows exactly why a Labour vote is needed more than ever.

But that clearly isn't going to happen. Apart from in Darren's parallel utopia