hippo Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 1 minute ago, VillaChris said: Dosen't always get it right, wasn't he in charge of the remain message last year? I didn't think he was. I thought both sides tried to get him - but it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ml1dch said: It would be fascinating if being used in a study of "supporters of which political party are more likely to fill out online quizzes about politics". Beyond that, it doesn't really tell us much. 146,000 people is a bigger sample than most of the polls that dominate the news. It makes it interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, bobzy said: If those Tory voters are anything like my Dad, their views (as decent human beings) will basically align with Labour (apart from, weirdly, on education where he thinks children should just "try their hardest" and supports grammar schools. Mental.) but he will "never vote red" due to workers unions disrupting industry about 30 years ago. I even challenged him to name one Conservative policy he agrees with or one incident that has seen Theresa May be "strong and stable". No answer. Voting Conservative, though. The same seems to be apparent across most 60+ year old males. Those blokes in the audience on QT basically started their questions with "I'm a Tory and I hope we win, but I'm concerned that...". Absolutely, totally entrenched views with 0 interest in reviewing policies and deciding what is best for them. If you get a few more older people moving to the right (working class people, traditionally voting Labour but fed up with immigration/terrorists/etc so changing to the right), you'll get an increase in older voters for the Conservatives. Same with my grandad. He's working class but he never agreed with the unions so always voted conservative. He thought Margaret thatcher was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Dosen't always get it right, wasn't he in charge of the remain message last year? I don't think he was, but even if he had been, he probably wouldn't have led that campaign to victory. Which is sort of my point - of course some strategists are better than others, but you have to have the product to sell as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: That's fair enough except what if he spends 80-100% of it but only turns out to have been able to afford 50% of it. It's really hard to predict how much tax income will be at the best of times, let alone when Brexit is thrown into it. Nobody knows how Brexit will pan out but he's committing £11bn for scrapping tuition fees alone for example. You only have to start paying them back when you earn above the average wage and hence better off than most, so for me that would be a very low priority right now. I'm a bit worried about increasing corporation tax, the minimum wage, increasing tax on many of the business owners and scrapping zero hours all at the same time as we leave the EU and don't have a clue how trade will be effected. Logically I can only see fewer people being employed. I'm probably in a minority on here though. I don't understand the scrapping of tuition fees. Are they really a block to anyone going to university? I was under the impression most people got a low-interest-rate student loan to pay back and, inevitably, those who graduated tended to get better paid employment down the line. Not convinced it's the best policy, nor particularly pressing if so. Agreed on the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and imposing higher taxes, too. The "comfort" I get from this is a] it's fair taxation and b] we currently have pretty low tax rates compared to the rest of the developed world. To me, businesses are more likely to leave Britain/reduce capacity in Britain if there are large trade tariffs between us and the EU. I don't think the issue of increased taxation will be as vital. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, hippo said: Cameron was a decent politician - although his mistakes where whoppers (the Scottish and EU referendums IMO) - But day to day he was fairly competent. May is just a million miles out her depth. Be surprised if she lasts much over 18 months. I don't agree with this here is why. We all moan about politicians not keeping their promises and no one thought Cameron would keep his word with this EU referendum yet he did. Sure he didnt expect teh result to go the way it did but none of us actually thought it was going to lead to rbexit happening. As for Scotland don't see what the problem was, a majority of Scots wnated to remain he delivered again. Didn't mind Cameron to be honest 23 minutes ago, bobzy said: FWIW, I actually thought David Cameron was a decent leader and spoke well. Might not have necessarily aligned with his views, but I felt relatively comfortable having him as PM. May is absolutely woeful. This sums up my view, May is a terrible leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 19 hours ago, theboyangel said: (I know the torys have under-sold assets too, particularly the Royal Mail) (You've seen the plans to sell NHS real estate? - That'll boil your piss). Oink Oink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Straggler said: 146,000 people is a bigger sample than most of the polls that dominate the news. It makes it interesting to me. It's a lot of people, but it's not a representative field. The demographic that is likely to (a) find that survey, probably via social media in the first place and (b) bother to answer the questions on it are likely to be the same people who identify with Labour's policies. It offers firm evidence that Labour supporters like politics and the internet. It doesn't offer firm evidence that the country prefers Labour's policies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 Would May have to resign if she didn't get a majority ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, bobzy said: I don't understand the scrapping of tuition fees. It's not a policy that makes a great deal of sense. The proportion of uni intakes who received free school meals has actually increased over the life of the policy, and repealing it just isn't important. That being said, Corbyn needs young people to turn out to vote on Thursday. This policy, which is basically a bribe, needs to understood in that context, and I would hope, if by some miracle Labour win, that it would significantly de-prioritised. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a m ole Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Straggler said: I just completed the survey on https://voteforpolicies.org.uk My results were not too surprising as shown on the pic. I knew the Greens have a bunch of policies that I agree with, what I did find a little strange is that I didn't pick a single proposal from the Conservatives. What is really eye opening is that after 146,000 people taking the survey, Labour are in first place, Greens are second, Libs are third, UKIP are fourth and the Cons are down in fifth place with 15.5%. 40% Labour, 28% Green, 25% Lib Dem and oddly, 7% Ukip. Apparenty I agree with the kippers on pensions - although all those policies were pretty similar aside from the conservative manifesto which I spotted a mile off. Feel a bit dirty right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Please don't get me wrong, Lynton Crosby is extremely good at what he does. There's a reason he's now on his 3rd time round as chief Tory strategist. His record in Australia is very impressive as well. But Labour also have impressive strategists - they hired Jim Messina, one of the Obama 2008 masterminds, for the 2015 election - and I think there's a real risk of placing too much importance on campaign architecture in retrospect. It's easier to look a genius if you won, whether it's true or not. I thought Jim Messina had been hired for the Tories? It's Bernie Sanders' campaign staff who have been helping Labour AFAIK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: That's fair enough except what if he spends 80-100% of it but only turns out to have been able to afford 50% of it. Impossible. It doesn't work like that. It's all just virtual numbers floating about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, darrenm said: I thought Jim Messina had been hired for the Tories? It's Bernie Sanders' campaign staff who have been helping Labour AFAIK You're absolutely right of course, I got my Obama strategists confused. It was David Axelrod who Labour hired in 2015, not Messina (who as you say, helped the Tories instead). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 43 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: It's not a policy that makes a great deal of sense. The proportion of uni intakes who received free school meals has actually increased over the life of the policy, and repealing it just isn't important. That being said, Corbyn needs young people to turn out to vote on Thursday. This policy, which is basically a bribe, needs to understood in that context, and I would hope, if by some miracle Labour win, that it would significantly de-prioritised. Although the system as it current exists doesn't seem all that sustainable. The Student Loan company is government owned and will never service all of it's debts at the current rate unless they get more aggressive over loan repayments and even tie in collateral into it's loan contracts (which will never be accepted). As a result the government will have to write off what is effectively it's own issued debt when it becomes clear that in the aggregate, debts will not be fully serviced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, Dr_Pangloss said: Although the system as it current exists doesn't seem all that sustainable. The Student Loan company is government owned and will never service all of it's debts at the current rate unless they get more aggressive over loan repayments and even tie in collateral into it's loan contracts (which will never be accepted). As a result the government will have to write off what is effectively it's own issued debt when it becomes clear that in the aggregate, debts will not be fully serviced. Its just waiting to be outsourced isn't it ? Edited June 5, 2017 by hippo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted June 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 5, 2017 (edited) Davvid Axelrod? Jim Messina? What is this, the albums thread? Edited June 5, 2017 by mjmooney 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 5, 2017 Moderator Share Posted June 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, darrenm said: Impossible. It doesn't work like that. It's all just virtual numbers floating about. So why would anyone talk about putting this or that Tax up? or cutting spending on this or that thing - why not just create the money to do it instead? Why on earth would John McDonnell, Phillip Hammond...every chancellor ever... tart about with this or that Tax rise or cut, this or that national insurance rate, why would they bother about "tax avoidance and evasion" about VAT and all the rest of it? Why would anyone care about a balanced budget and defecits and all the rest of it. No one needs to pay any tax, then....it's all just virtual numbers, right.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said: Although the system as it current exists doesn't seem all that sustainable. The Student Loan company is government owned and will never service all of it's debts at the current rate unless they get more aggressive over loan repayments and even tie in collateral into it's loan contracts (which will never be accepted). As a result the government will have to write off what is effectively it's own issued debt when it becomes clear that in the aggregate, debts will not be fully serviced. I'm not really seeing why that isn't sustainable? They've been writing off large amounts of bad debt for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm not really seeing why that isn't sustainable? They've been writing off large amounts of bad debt for years. Probably because it is going to be significantly higher than it currently is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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