General Election 2017

[alreadyexists]

9 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Putting our corporation tax back up to the same levels as the rest of the developed world, seems a pretty reasonable way of financing help for the poor to me. As for voting Lib Dem , l haven't forgotten which Party " enabled" the Tories to inflict so much pain for 5 long years. Labour will get rid of zero hours contracts, raise the minimum wage significantly, remove the crippling debt we burden our students with. And simply bring hope to the millions of ordinary people the Tories have abandoned to food banks and despair. These things alone mean they are the Party who will have my vote.

Seconded. ...but I still don't think labour can win unfortunately. I think this election is really about May wanting to increase the Tory majority so she has more 'bargaining' power with EU, but I personally think it will backfire and I imagine that although tories will win with a majority, it will be a decreased majority which overall is a failure for May's leadership. I think she overestimated how poorly Corbyn would be received by the public, and how resurgent labour have been. Without the Scottish vote though, I can't see labour making enough ground, and SNP have that vote tied up. 

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

Seconded. ...but I still don't think labour can win unfortunately. I think this election is really about May wanting to increase the Tory majority so she has more 'bargaining' power with EU, but I personally think it will backfire and I imagine that although tories will win with a majority, it will be a decreased majority which overall is a failure for May's leadership. I think she overestimated how poorly Corbyn would be received by the public, and how resurgent labour have been. Without the Scottish vote though, I can't see labour making enough ground, and SNP have that vote tied up. 

a lot of similarities between 1992 election. Labour had the better campaign and John Major was woeful - but against the odds he won a small majority. Predictably the wheels fell off pretty quickly (as they will for May) - they got hammered in the 1997 election - people had just had enough.   

[PaulC]

Another thing to consider is that we have already had  a decrease in the value of the pound since the brexit vote and if Labour win then it will drop even further. May even drop below the euro. 

[hippo]

1 minute ago, PaulC said:

Another thing to consider is that we have already had  a decrease in the value of the pound since the brexit vote and if Labour win then it will drop even further. May even drop below the euro. 

Why will it drop ? 

Hasn't it dropped massively since the brexit vote anyway ?  

[alreadyexists]

1 minute ago, hippo said:

a lot of similarities between 1992 election. Labour had the better campaign and John Major was woeful - but against the odds he won a small majority. Predictably the wheels fell off pretty quickly (as they will for May) - they got hammered in the 1997 election - people had just had enough.   

That's a very interesting analogy and one I hadn't thought of. I suspect a similar result. Especially since I don't see a way any leader can make a success of brexit in the short term, so come 2023 I think the public will view that as a failure and want change. We shall see though.

[PaulC]

Its bound to cause more instability with the markets. May be temporary but it will happen. 

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Its bound to cause more instability with the markets. May be temporary but it will happen. 

Sure - but lots of things cause market instability  not just a change of UK government. Brexit, Europe, oil prices, the US economy and whole load of other stuff we don't even know about yet.

 

 

[hippo]

5 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

That's a very interesting analogy and one I hadn't thought of. I suspect a similar result. Especially since I don't see a way any leader can make a success of brexit in the short term, so come 2023 I think the public will view that as a failure and want change. We shall see though.

May's Strong and Stable and her decision to slash 20,000 police officers will ruin her pretty quickly IMO.

That aside I don't think she is that good. 

[villaglint]

10 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Another thing to consider is that we have already had  a decrease in the value of the pound since the brexit vote and if Labour win then it will drop even further. May even drop below the euro. 

Was reading some quotes from Head of Currency trading at Goldman Sachs saying exactly the opposite. That a Labour win would offer markets the increased prospect of a softer Brexit which would likely see a raise in the value of the pound. 

So that is wrong. 

Next.

Edited June 5, 2017 by villaglint

[hippo]

6 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

That's a very interesting analogy and one I hadn't thought of. I suspect a similar result. Especially since I don't see a way any leader can make a success of brexit in the short term, so come 2023 I think the public will view that as a failure and want change. We shall see though.

Still much work for labour to do though - even for 2023 

[PaulC]

3 minutes ago, hippo said:

Sure - but lots of things cause market instability  not just a change of UK government. Brexit, Europe, oil prices, the US economy and whole load of other stuff we don't even know about yet.

 

 

very true

[Demitri_C]

40 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Putting our corporation tax back up to the same levels as the rest of the developed world, seems a pretty reasonable way of financing help for the poor to me. As for voting Lib Dem , l haven't forgotten which Party " enabled" the Tories to inflict so much pain for 5 long years. Labour will get rid of zero hours contracts, raise the minimum wage significantly, remove the crippling debt we burden our students with. And simply bring hope to the millions of ordinary people the Tories have abandoned to food banks and despair. These things alone mean they are the Party who will have my vote.

Yay we are saved

I don't dispute that the tories are fecking things up but I think everyone seems to think Corbyn and the labour party are going to make things happy and great again are being very unrealistic. Which ever party wins we are going to get stuffed on in my view. Cuts galore, with shit NHS or higher taxation and probable higher unemployment 

As with the corporation tax going up, this is going to effect unemployment along with the increase in minimum wage. You cant do both as what I think is going to happen this is going to take hits on their profits and they are going to say sod this we have to get rid of staff as both our eating into our profits. If you go after the rich and businesses constantly it has a knock on effect on the poor/middle class i think. Its not right but thats the way I see the world.

Its a shit life really! 

Edited June 5, 2017 by Demitri_C

[PaulC]

Just now, villaglint said:

Was reading some quotes from Head of Currency trading at Goldman Sachs saying exactly the opposite. That a Labour win would offer markets the increased prospect of a softer Brexit which would likely see a raise in the value of the pound. 

So that is wrong. 

Next.

Initially it will though. The pound has dropped already since the general election was announced. 

[HanoiVillan]

33 minutes ago, hippo said:

I still think it will be a Tory majority of 50+ seats. There is the odd poll putting labour within 2 or 3 %  - but the average tory lead is about 6%.

I remember reading an article about Lynton Crosby after GE2015 - some of the things that I recall are

• The Tories do massive opinion polls themselves - much bigger than the the ones reported in the press this gives more of an idea whats going on
• Lynton Crosby doesn't run a national campaign he focuses of the marginal seats - polling and campaigning is targeting in these areas
• In these marginal seats they analyse which issues are bothering the undecided or floating voters - and campaign accordingly
• In GE 2015 the story went around that labour was winning the ground war - ie leafleting engaging with voters - this rumours was started by Tory HQ ! 
• The best result for TM maybe a majority of around 50-60 - this would give her the power to get things done - but may not be the end of Corbyn  - win/win for the Tories.
• There is no UKIP and very weak lib dems  - so actually a better labour performance, may not be as good as it first seems.

I never found the article about Lynton Crosby again - but it made me realise how amateur the labour approach is (go out , campaign - hope people vote for you) 

 

 

While you may well be right about the majority (mine listed on the previous page was a similar size) and the average Tory lead, I think some of these points are slightly misleading. Firstly, the size of an opinion poll is not the key determinant to its success or not, after you reach a (low) tipping point - beyond that, whether the poll is representative or not and the screens/weighting you apply matter far more. In addition, both campaigns target marginal constituencies more, there's nothing unusual in that. Jeremy Corbyn has campaigned less in marginals, but that is down to his personal style (and I would argue is one of the problems with him as leader) rather than Labour strategy. Finally, I don't think 'go out, campaign, hope people vote for you' is a fair description of Labour's tactics. It's inherently harder to GOTV with Labour-leaning demographic groups. 

[PaulC]

7 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Yay we are saved

I don't dispute that the tories are fecking things up but I think everyone seems to think Corbyn and the labour party are going to make things happy and great again are being very unrealistic. Which ever party wins we are going to get stuffed on in my view. Cuts galore, with shit NHS or higher taxation and probable higher unemployment 

As with the corporation tax going up, this is going to effect unemployment along with the increase in minimum wage. You cant do both as what I think is going to happen this is going to take hits on their profits and they are going to say sod this we have to get rid of staff as both our eating in our profits. If you go after the rich and businesses constantly it has a knock on effect on the poor/middle class i think. Its not right but thats the way I see the world.

Its a shit life really! 

100% agree

[hippo]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

While you may well be right about the majority (mine listed on the previous page was a similar size) and the average Tory lead, I think some of these points are slightly misleading. Firstly, the size of an opinion poll is not the key determinant to its success or not, after you reach a (low) tipping point - beyond that, whether the poll is representative or not and the screens/weighting you apply matter far more. In addition, both campaigns target marginal constituencies more, there's nothing unusual in that. Jeremy Corbyn has campaigned less in marginals, but that is down to his personal style (and I would argue is one of the problems with him as leader) rather than Labour strategy. Finally, I don't think 'go out, campaign, hope people vote for you' is a fair description of Labour's tactics. It's inherently harder to GOTV with Labour-leaning demographic groups. 

Im just saying Lynton Crosby virtually manipulates the electorate. My conspiracy theory is he knows he is going to win. But lets let labour think they are doing well so they keep doing the same things.

I wish I could find the article.

[MakemineVanilla]

43 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Putting our corporation tax back up to the same levels as the rest of the developed world, seems a pretty reasonable way of financing help for the poor to me. As for voting Lib Dem , l haven't forgotten which Party " enabled" the Tories to inflict so much pain for 5 long years. Labour will get rid of zero hours contracts, raise the minimum wage significantly, remove the crippling debt we burden our students with. And simply bring hope to the millions of ordinary people the Tories have abandoned to food banks and despair. These things alone mean they are the Party who will have my vote.

But according to the IFS it is the better off in society who mainly go to university, so how does that help the poor?

[hippo]

3 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

But according to the IFS it is the better off in society who mainly go to university, so how does that help the poor?

Depends what numbers you are putting on 'better off', 'poor, and 'mainly'

 

[meregreen]

17 minutes ago, PaulC said:

100% agree

100% disagree 

[peterms]

1 hour ago, hippo said:

I never found the article about Lynton Crosby again - but it made me realise how amateur the labour approach is (go out , campaign - hope people vote for you) 

Labour have been following what you describe as the Crosby approach for 20 years or more.

In fact, one criticism was that they became so infatuated with focus groups that their policies narrowed to what would appeal to a very narrow stratum of the electorate in places like Peterborough, and so they lost the loyalty of the larger part of their former core support, who had been taken for granted because Mandelson believed they had "nowhere else to go".

As a result, Labour continually lost both voters and members from 1997 onwards, and the rebuilding job bequeathed by the Blairites is massive.