Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Delphinho123]

49 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I’ve been thinking about this a lot, trying to find articles and podcasts on the nuclear question, and there isn’t much out there that really gets you close to an answer.

But a few things that seemed like cause for optimism to me:

• Putin has been insinuating that he will use nukes for months now, and multiple different “red lines” have been crossed. The real trigger would surely still be a genuine threat to Russia’s (pre-2014) territorial integrity, in line with well established Russian doctrine.
• Putin is a survivor. He’s wriggled his way out of tight spots before. His main priority will surely be clinging on to power in Russia, and he’ll already be working on how he scapegoats other people for this disaster, plays rivals off against each other, etc. That’s his more natural route to surviving this than just starting a global nuclear war, and might be more feasible within Russia than it looks to us from the outside.
• In many ways this war was Putin trying to prove his ultra-nationalist  credentials to factions that regarded him as too centrist / pro-west (!!!) and a lot of the grandstanding and nuclear chat can potentially be seen in that light.
• There is no sign of Russia manoeuvring any nuclear weapons into position.
• There are other forms of escalation still available to Putin.
• Although anything is possible, and we shouldn’t discount the threat of nuclear weapons, or expect Putin/Russia to be entirely rational, it doesn’t really make a lot of sense to use a nuke.

As always Kent, superb analysis. Thanks. 

[HKP90]

45 minutes ago, sidcow said:

They should coin some kind of phrase for this separation between Russia and The West. 

The fibreglass curtain? Russia ain't got much iron in them. 

[avfc1982am]

 

[foreveryoung]

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by foreveryoung

[KentVillan]

Oh and one more really interesting point re the nuclear question @Delphinho123which I think was mentioned on Ukrainecast…

There are signs that Putin is still looking after the Wagner Group and Kadyrov’s Chechens. They aren’t being given the suicidal missions, but are mostly involved in the situations where Russia is holding its own or even making small incursions.

One analysis of this is that Putin has earmarked these groups as his protection in the event of an attempted coup or civil war. That doesn’t seem like the behaviour of a man who is rolling all the dice and ready to start a nuclear war.

Remember how dire the situation looked for Assad in Syria? I think Putin will still be backing himself to cling on to power. He’s obviously in a very tight spot, but he still wields a lot of power internally, and is a master of the internal power politics, even if he’s turned out to be a pretty amateurish military strategist.

[Chindie]

This type of attack is what special forces were founded to do - though it's not what we've seen them do much in recent years given the type of conflicts we've seen around the world. Pretty audacious if it is, though - attacking the key infrastructure in a region under heavy enemy scrutiny, which also has significant symbolic weight... ooft.

A shame it hasn't seemingly done that much damage, but that's probably evidence of the difficulty of doing it, you'd need an enormous and very powerful explosive to destroy a concrete structure at a distance, which makes doing it at all very complicated.

[KentVillan]

Just now, Chindie said:

This type of attack is what special forces were founded to do - though it's not what we've seen them do much in recent years given the type of conflicts we've seen around the world. Pretty audacious if it is, though - attacking the key infrastructure in a region under heavy enemy scrutiny, which also has significant symbolic weight... ooft.

A shame it hasn't seemingly done that much damage, but that's probably evidence of the difficulty of doing it, you'd need an enormous and very powerful explosive to destroy a concrete structure at a distance, which makes doing it at all very complicated.

A lot of people think it was a drone boat - one washed up near Sevastopol recently. The timing to detonate as a train loaded with fuel was crossing was either very lucky or an exceptional bit of planning.

[Chindie]

2 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

A lot of people think it was a drone boat - one washed up near Sevastopol recently. The timing to detonate as a train loaded with fuel was crossing was either very lucky or an exceptional bit of planning.

Would make sense - the bridge was attacked from beneath, and it's very unlikely it was with stationary explosives (on multiple fronts - they'd be seen, the risk planting them would be impracticably enormous, and the damage would be much higher). A drone boat is only going to be able to carry limited amounts of explosive and would blow at a distance from the structure reducing its impact. A boat is also less likely to be seen/intercepted than a car.

[bielesibub]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

Putin is a survivor. He’s wriggled his way out of tight spots before. His main priority will surely be clinging on to power in Russia, and he’ll already be working on how he scapegoats other people for this disaster, plays rivals off against each other, etc. That’s his more natural route to surviving this than just starting a global nuclear war, and might be more feasible within Russia than it looks to us from the outside.

All your points are great, but I think this is the best point to be optimistic about. Hopefully Putin knows that the nuclear option is his last option, we could suddenly see what seems like an 'apathetic majority' of Russian people drawn into this conflict in a very real and dangerous way. Without this group of people on his side there's surely no chance of him being able to cling onto power. Having said all its not hard to imagine some hideous w4nky false flag play coming from the Kremlin. 

[bannedfromHandV]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

They should coin some kind of phrase for this separation between Russia and The West. 

Eh?

[NoelVilla]

Lots of posts like this over Twitter now. Probably nothing as usual but we'll see.

 

[TheAuthority]

[KentVillan]

15 minutes ago, NoelVilla said:

Lots of posts like this over Twitter now. Probably nothing as usual but we'll see.

 

It’s being reported by Ukrainian intelligence now:

Could stack up with the idea that Putin is going to blame factions within the military for screwing this up.

Or could be a thwarted coup attempt.

Or could be disinformation.

Or a bunch of other possibilities. Interesting times.

[Genie]

 

[avfc1982am]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

 

Putin looks like he's about to make a shitload more enemies at home. 

[LondonLax]

How does one ‘arrest the military’

[NoelVilla]

What does it do for the moral of those not arrested? Maybe he thinks he don't need the military to win the war.

[Genie]

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end  

[KentVillan]

Ukrainian disinfo?

[Marka Ragnos]

22 minutes ago, Genie said:

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end  

I desperately hope you’re right. In my observation of history, dictators can be exceptionally hard to dislodge, and if making many enemies at home were enough, they’d never go. Look at Zimbabwe, North Korea, Cuba, Iran. I don’t think a coup would change much. But  “people power” and an Orange-style revolution would move to needle, and I haven’t seen evidence of this yet atm. 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Marka Ragnos