Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 minute ago, terrytini said: I’m past caring whether Bruce stays or goes, so stopped debating it - in the Bruce thread of course - some time ago. BUT In this the promotion thread I would say this. The question for the Club is, IMO , NOT can Bruce get us Automatic promotion - because although of course it’s possible it’s mathematically unlikely. But whether there are other candidates equally likely to get a play off place and at the same time perhaps build a style more likely to succeed both in those play offs and IF we go up AND just possibly ( with a mythical ‘ bounce’ and / or a different method) increase those slim mathematical odds of Automatic Promotion. I don’t say that they should do this or that, but I hope at least they have had/ are having that debate, If they weren’t thinking it after Brentford then they sure as hell won’t be now . He was very lucky to survive that week but like it or not he’s going nowhere at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, terrytini said: To put it another way, if, as most people accept, you ideally want to average 2 points per game (and get 92points) for Automatic promotion we need 2.2 per game for 30 games. So 11 Points From every 5 games. 3 Wins And 2 draws ? Or 4 wins and a defeat is more than enough. Looking at his whole time with us we have managed this for two five game periods, one last season, one this. We now need to do it for the entire season. 2 points a game from here gives us 86 - I think that will be enough to get automatic promotion - whether we get them only time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Eastie said: You do not need 92 points to be promoted Great because we won’t get close to 92. 10 minutes ago, Eastie said: 6 points behind with 30 games to go - all to play for And what we can see tells us that we are more likely to fall a further 6 points or more behind than close the gap. Edited November 5, 2017 by fightoffyour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 @Eastie football isn’t only about maths of course so I’ve no problem with anybody hoping/ expecting / or whatever. All I’ve done is put the maths out there. I’ve tried in those last few posts to avoid anything subjective. Which is also the context of what I said as regards the Biard I will go on the maths myself, particularly as - to have one moment of subjectivity - I’ve seen nothing in over 50 games to suggest we have what it takes to beat those maths . But hopefully hope will triumph !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eastie said: 2 points a game from here gives us 86 - I think that will be enough to get automatic promotion - whether we get them only time will tell We’ve never consistently achieved 2ppg under Bruce apart from carefully selected small selections of games. What makes you think we can do that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, fightoffyour said: Great because we won’t get close to 92. And what we can see tells us that we are more likely to fall a further 6 points or more behind than close the gap. Too much negativity on here after yesterday - too many towels get thrown in at every setback , I don’t like Steve Bruce or want him but I can see we are very much in the hunt and have every chance , time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Eastie said: If they weren’t thinking it after Brentford then they sure as hell won’t be now . He was very lucky to survive that week but like it or not he’s going nowhere at the moment I agree he is here to stay but it doesn’t mean I’m going to happily accept that fact. like many thought at the start of the season, he may just get us to stumble into the playoffs whilst never quite performing badly enough to get sacked. We may then be fortunate enough to get promoted from 6th place and that would be absolutely amazing it should go without saying. I just can’t see it happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, terrytini said: @Eastie football isn’t only about maths of course so I’ve no problem with anybody hoping/ expecting / or whatever. All I’ve done is put the maths out there. I’ve tried in those last few posts to avoid anything subjective. Which is also the context of what I said as regards the Biard I will go on the maths myself, particularly as - to have one moment of subjectivity - I’ve seen nothing in over 50 games to suggest we have what it takes to beat those maths . But hopefully hope will triumph !! Our views over the Steve Bruce reign have pretty much been the same week in week out terry - you are one of the posters I really enjoy reading and will continue to do so - usually after a defeat I feel very low but today I still feel pretty upbeat although the loss of JT worried me far more than the loss of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 minute ago, fightoffyour said: I agree he is here to stay but it doesn’t mean I’m going to happily accept that fact. like many thought at the start of the season, he may just get us to stumble into the playoffs whilst never quite performing badly enough to get sacked. We may then be fortunate enough to get promoted from 6th place and that would be absolutely amazing it should go without saying. I just can’t see it happening though. I don’t like the guy but I can see it happening and I still think he can get us into 2nd place - hopefully grealish adds that bit of spark too - there’s a hell of a long way to go and we are in striking distance - of course we need to kick on from here but I feel we can do so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eastie said: I don’t like the guy but I can see it happening and I still think he can get us into 2nd place - hopefully grealish adds that bit of spark too - there’s a hell of a long way to go and we are in striking distance - of course we need to kick on from here but I feel we can do so . I don't know what gives you that confidence. I'm not particularly angry about yesterday but there's nothing that makes me think we can average that point total over the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eastie said: Our views over the Steve Bruce reign have pretty much been the same week in week out terry - you are one of the posters I really enjoy reading and will continue to do so - usually after a defeat I feel very low but today I still feel pretty upbeat although the loss of JT worried me far more than the loss of the game Likewise and thanks. Yesterdays defeat doesn’t really alter anything for me, I have no expectation of Automatic Promotion and the result alters nothing as regards our play off odds. Whether that is a positive position or not is another story lol ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Clearly, due to a poor start, we have given ourselves a hill to climb to catch the top 2 and as yesterday showed when you are playing catch up one poor result can quickly change a positive picture. Had we won yesterday we'd have been 4 points behind second and feeling much better today. As it is I am still relatively confident we can get automatic. We can't allow that gap to get any bigger though. We have three winnable games coming up and we have to win them and hopefully the teams above us can slip up and we can go into December less than a handful of points off top 2. With 30 games to go still all to play for and we are well in the mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 36 minutes ago, Eastie said: I don’t like the guy but I can see it happening and I still think he can get us into 2nd place - hopefully grealish adds that bit of spark too - there’s a hell of a long way to go and we are in striking distance - of course we need to kick on from here but I feel we can do so . I’m generally an optimist in life and I wish I could see Villa currently in this way like you do. I hope to McGrath we finish 2nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, DCJonah said: I don't know what gives you that confidence. I'm not particularly angry about yesterday but there's nothing that makes me think we can average that point total over the rest of the season. Wouldn’t say I’m confident but I think there’s a fair chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Basically a third of the way through the season now with 7 more games until halfway. We've done ok after an undeniably bad start but we're still playing catch up meaning we need to exceed our expectations at some point. Now would be a good place to start. QPR[a], Sunderland, Ipswich, Leeds[a], Millwall, Derby[a], Sheff Utd lie ahead for us. If I'm personally going to start thinking about automatic promotion being on the cards we have to go unbeaten. At best we can afford to lose one of them. Any more than 4 or 5 losses on the card at Xmas and it's hard to see past the play offs for our aspirations is the way I look at it. Losing the odd game here and there - whoever it's to - is to be expected along the way in this league. I've said before about Newcastle losing twice to relegated Blackburn last season en route to the title. What counts is the reaction. We cant afford a losing run like Leeds and Preston are having. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 We have winnable games coming up lets just get past this defeat and gwt on with it. Id say ww play de laet or jedinak at cb. Samba for me is a player you bring on later on in a game. Not a starter. He is well past his best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 3 hours ago, Eastie said: Too much negativity on here after yesterday - too many towels get thrown in at every setback , I don’t like Steve Bruce or want him but I can see we are very much in the hunt and have every chance , time will tell Every setback doesn't include losing your talismanic captain and best defender for a couple of months. But, that shouldn't be a problem for us as, according to you a couple of days ago, we have enough strength in depth to cope. Time will tell if you're right - I hope you are! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 85 points will be enough for 2nd I reckon. Sheffield United will have a dip at some point. Cardiff have dropped plenty of points in last month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Cor, I can’t wait to get back in the Premier League so we can join the others in the battle for seventh place. The excitement of it all makes me stiff. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said: Cor, I can’t wait to get back in the Premier League so we can join the others in the battle for seventh place. The excitement of it all makes me stiff. 7th? Get your head out of the clouds son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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