DCJonah Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Rugeley Villa said: Since our terrible start against Cardiff and reading it's... played 12 won 7 drew 3 lost 2 not too bad is it. Thing which I don't get is we could win 4 or 5 on the bounce which we actually did not long ago, then have 1 defeat and it's Bruce out etc. I'm not a huge fan, but at the moment he's the best bet we have. Because the target was automatic promotion and he looks like he's going to fail to achieve that. So winning a few in a row means nothing really if it doesn't have us reaching the goals set out at the start of the season. He's the best bet we have is debatable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Eastie said: Are you disputing that we have taken 25 points from our last 13 games which is automatic promotion form ‘you use your stats and I’ll use mine He makes some good points though. Stats can be manipulated, when you take the entire season so far we aren't on course to achieve the target set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Eastie said: Beaten yes but not destroyed - they had 2 shots on target and scored 2 very good goals - they deserved to win but were certainly not destroyed by them . We had 3 shots on target against Preston and scored 2 goals (1 corner and 1 could be described as good). Stats don’t tell everything. We dominated that game and possibly “destroyed” Preston - it was lauded as the performance of the season, at least away. Sheffield destroyed us yesterday and that’s that - despite it finishing 1-2. Edited November 5, 2017 by fightoffyour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 hours ago, villa89 said: A team with automatic promotion ambitions would have come out in the second half yesterday and really put in a performance and got a draw out of the game. As per usual the halftime teamtalk from Bruce did nothing useful and once we went 2-0 down the game was effectively over. This thread should be renamed the fight for the playoffs because that's the reality. Automatic promotion is a fantasy. We started the second half really brightly. We just did. Sometimes that will happen and you don't score. We didn't until too late, and Wednesday sensibly - if infuriatingly - milked every single second of time-wasting they could manage. But I don't agree the teamtalk 'did nothing useful', we were a different side after half-time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntrimBlack Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 56 minutes ago, Nigel said: Very much this. They had the luck of the gods yesterday and beat us by 1 goal. A couple of pretty passing moves aside they barely troubled us. Yesterday was our own doing. Heads dropped after the setbacks. Very much this. This is why the playoffs, fro which I think we are destined, will be a lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 We are poor vs the better sides in this division 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, Zatman said: We are poor vs the better sides in this division Yes that's the key issue, we need to be beating most of the top 5 sides in the division, instead we tend to at best draw against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Since our terrible start against Cardiff and reading it's... played 12 won 7 drew 3 lost 2 not too bad is it. Thing which I don't get is we could win 4 or 5 on the bounce which we actually did not long ago, then have 1 defeat and it's Bruce out etc. I'm not a huge fan, but at the moment he's the best bet we have. We needed 4 wins on the bounce starting with Sheff Weds just to get to the 2ppg average we need. Now we need 6. So great if we go on a little run, but little runs aren’t worth that much in this league. Win 6 on the bounce just to get the minimum that we should be aspiring to! Is that going to happen? Clearly not. So yes, every time it looks like we’ve turned a corner everyone is content and then the next week when we’re clearly underachieving of course people are calling for his head and quite rightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Since our terrible start against Cardiff and reading it's... played 12 won 7 drew 3 lost 2 not too bad is it. Thing which I don't get is we could win 4 or 5 on the bounce which we actually did not long ago, then have 1 defeat and it's Bruce out etc. I'm not a huge fan, but at the moment he's the best bet we have. You honestly think we can 4 or 5 on the bounce with JT out and the fixtures we have coming up? I'm hoping we can win 4 or 5 games during the time he is out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Eastie said: IF we continue to accrue points at the rate of the past 13 games we will go up - we need to continue obvoiusly but we can only judge on recent form - what happened a year ago is immaterial as it was a totally different side . Very very very unlikely...if you mean go up as in automatically go up. If we accrue at the rate of the past 13 games - we would end up on 84 Points. Not usually enough for automatic promotion. Not only that but if the current top two continue their Form the Maths is that we would need to Win all the next 7 games to catch up, and after that we need to match them all the way. Our only realistic chance of automatic promotion is for us to play title winning form from now until the end is the season AND for one of the teams that IS doing that to falter. So not impossible but far far more unlikely than some think. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, Eastie said: Are you disputing that we have taken 25 points from our last 13 games which is automatic promotion form ‘you use your stats and I’ll use mine Er well it depends what you mean. Its Promotion Form OVER A SEASON but NOT from where we are. From where we are it gets us to 84 Points. Not automatic promotion . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Since our terrible start against Cardiff and reading it's... played 12 won 7 drew 3 lost 2 not too bad is it. Thing which I don't get is we could win 4 or 5 on the bounce which we actually did not long ago, then have 1 defeat and it's Bruce out etc. I'm not a huge fan, but at the moment he's the best bet we have. No, it’s not 7/3/2.. its 7/4/2 and it’s not bad. But it’s not enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 So choose whichever you prefer Based on the actual season so far we get 74. Based on “ ignore the poor start,take since Norwich”. ( the last 13)..We get 84. Base on the last 12 instead of the last 13.. we get 81. Base on the last 5 - when we’ve supposedly done ok - we end up on 68. None get Automatic promotion, sadly. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 To put it another way, if, as most people accept, you ideally want to average 2 points per game (and get 92points) for Automatic promotion we need 2.2 per game for 30 games. So 11 Points From every 5 games. 3 Wins And 2 draws ? Or 4 wins and a defeat is more than enough. Looking at his whole time with us we have managed this for two five game periods, one last season, one this. We now need to do it for the entire season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted November 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted November 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, terrytini said: So choose whichever you prefer Based on the actual season so far we get 74. Based on “ ignore the poor start,take since Norwich”. ( the last 13)..We get 84. Base on the last 12 instead of the last 13.. we get 81. Base on the last 5 - when we’ve supposedly done ok - we end up on 68. None get Automatic promotion, sadly. Take the last 9 before Sheff Weds and round up you get 92 so we might even challenge for the title. Happy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 @terrytini throwing truth bombs out all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: We needed 4 wins on the bounce starting with Sheff Weds just to get to the 2ppg average we need. Now we need 6. So great if we go on a little run, but little runs aren’t worth that much in this league. Win 6 on the bounce just to get the minimum that we should be aspiring to! Is that going to happen? Clearly not. So yes, every time it looks like we’ve turned a corner everyone is content and then the next week when we’re clearly underachieving of course people are calling for his head and quite rightly. You do not need 92 points to be promoted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Borough have picked up form as well, didn't realise there were actually 3 - 5 teams around us which had games in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 41 minutes ago, terrytini said: Very very very unlikely...if you mean go up as in automatically go up. If we accrue at the rate of the past 13 games - we would end up on 84 Points. Not usually enough for automatic promotion. Not only that but if the current top two continue their Form the Maths is that we would need to Win all the next 7 games to catch up, and after that we need to match them all the way. Our only realistic chance of automatic promotion is for us to play title winning form from now until the end is the season AND for one of the teams that IS doing that to falter. So not impossible but far far more unlikely than some think. 6 points behind with 30 games to go - all to play for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 I’m past caring whether Bruce stays or goes, so stopped debating it - in the Bruce thread of course - some time ago. BUT In this the promotion thread I would say this. The question for the Club is, IMO , NOT can Bruce get us Automatic promotion - because although of course it’s possible it’s mathematically unlikely. But whether there are other candidates equally likely to get a play off place and at the same time perhaps build a style more likely to succeed both in those play offs and IF we go up AND just possibly ( with a mythical ‘ bounce’ and / or a different method) increase those slim mathematical odds of Automatic Promotion. I don’t say that they should do this or that, but I hope at least they have had/ are having that debate, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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