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Where will we finish ?


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I'll just be delighted if we manage to stay up.

 

I have a horrid feeling after watching that shambles against a bunch of football thugs wearing Stoke City tops today that we are about to embark on a torrid run of s**t performances... You could see today as soon as we went 1-0 up the players just dropped their level back to the Villa Park norm (League 2 level). And i fear they could pay a heavy price now as we have Man Utd, Man City, Spurs all away and another 5 games to try and get 6 points from... We ain't safe yet.

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It won't take 40 points to stay up, Sunderland can't buy a win, they're not suddenly going to get 15 points in the next 10 games. Looks at their fixtures and tell me where they're even getting the 9 points they need to match our current points.

 

We're already safe IMO, I can't see 18th ending up on 36 points.

Edited by Davkaus
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I'll just be delighted if we manage to stay up.

I have a horrid feeling after watching that shambles against a bunch of football thugs wearing Stoke City tops today that we are about to embark on a torrid run of s**t performances... You could see today as soon as we went 1-0 up the players just dropped their level back to the Villa Park norm (League 2 level). And i fear they could pay a heavy price now as we have Man Utd, Man City, Spurs all away and another 5 games to try and get 6 points from... We ain't safe yet.

Unless we lose every game we have left we're not going down Edited by P3te
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I'll just be delighted if we manage to stay up.

I have a horrid feeling after watching that shambles against a bunch of football thugs wearing Stoke City tops today that we are about to embark on a torrid run of s**t performances... You could see today as soon as we went 1-0 up the players just dropped their level back to the Villa Park norm (League 2 level). And i fear they could pay a heavy price now as we have Man Utd, Man City, Spurs all away and another 5 games to try and get 6 points from... We ain't safe yet.

Before this game you expected 12th-14th, now you'll be delighted if we just stay up. Did you not expect us to lose against any average/poor teams? We are Aston 'inconsistent' Villa, after all.
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I'll just be delighted if we manage to stay up.

I have a horrid feeling after watching that shambles against a bunch of football thugs wearing Stoke City tops today that we are about to embark on a torrid run of s**t performances... You could see today as soon as we went 1-0 up the players just dropped their level back to the Villa Park norm (League 2 level). And i fear they could pay a heavy price now as we have Man Utd, Man City, Spurs all away and another 5 games to try and get 6 points from... We ain't safe yet.

Before this game you expected 12th-14th, now you'll be delighted if we just stay up. Did you not expect us to lose against any average/poor teams? We are Aston 'inconsistent' Villa, after all.

 

 

I was expecting 12th to 14th & provided we actually turn up to games, unlike yesterday, then we should be able to do that. What i fear though now after watching that garbage is we nose dive. Watching yesterday it was almost like you could see us drop down a gear as soon as we went 1-0 up and to be fair Stoke stepped up a gear too hence the embarrassing scoreline. For me the players lost their drive as soon as we went one up. It was almost an "On the beach" performance for me, as though after the Eurphoria of the Chelsea win and all the talk of them being safe they lost impetus.. especially after going 1-0 up so early. I guess what concerns me is that if they relax, thinking the hard work is done, this could result in us nose-diving as another few results are needed yet to be absolutely sure of safety and with some tough games upcoming we haven't got much room for hitting a baron run.

 

So Yes i do think we should get 12th to 14th but that is by no means a certainty of course and we can ill afford to be getting hammered 1-4 at home by teams around us because there is still an outside chance we could get dragged back into it all.

 

To answer your question Rob, Yes i do expect us to lose against some average/poor teams, especially at home, although i do admit i thought we had maybe turned the corner with the wins against WBA, Norwich and Chelsea...clearly not! But what altered my optimism slightly was the nature of the performance yesterday.. we would lose against most teams playing like that and it looked to me as though we had lost momentum which can take time to rebuild and with just 8 games left that's not ideal.

 

So big game now at Old Trafford, we'll know more after that no doubt. Would be delighted to avoid defeat up there.

Edited by danceoftheshamen
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Think top ten is beyond us now, Stoke are 3 points ahead and have an easier run in.

 

Disappointing.

 

What a ridiculous thing to say with eight games left. Ninth is almost certainly beyond us but tenth place is still very much achievable

 

We are not a top 10 side at present. I concluded that as early as September when we lost to Newcastle at home. 12th and about 43-45 points would be a solid enough season.

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Updating:

8th: 0.1%

9th: 1.1%

10th: 15.5%

^^^ upper quartile

11th: 26.0%

12th: 20.8% == median

13th: 16.4%

vvv lower quartile

14th: 11.7%

15th: 5.8%

16th: 1.9%

17th: 0.6%

18th: 0.1%

8th: 0.4%

9th: 3.7%

10th: 35.2%

^^^ upper quartile

11th: 24.9% == median

12th: 15.9%

vvv lower quartile

13th: 10.0%

14th: 6.0%

15th: 2.7%

16th: 1.0%

17th: 0.2%

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9th: 0.3%

10th: 3.5%

11th: 18.8%

^^^ upper quartile

12th: 21.3%

13th: 22.0% == median

14th: 17.2%

vvv lower quartile

15th: 10.2%

16th: 5.0%

17th: 1.5%

18th: 0.2%

8th: 0.1%

9th: 1.1%

10th: 15.5%

^^^ upper quartile

11th: 26.0%

12th: 20.8% == median

13th: 16.4%

vvv lower quartile

14th: 11.7%

15th: 5.8%

16th: 1.9%

17th: 0.6%

18th: 0.1%

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Oh no, the chance of relegation has gone up 0.1%, oh NOOOOOES!

 

You're not being sensationalist enough.

 

Losing to Manchester United away has DOUBLED our chance of relegation!

 

If that doubling were to continue for the remaining 7 games of the season it would mean we'd have a 25.6% chance of relegation!

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