Where will we finish ?

[ben1505]

Hmmm... Maybe 15th?

[Whatever happened to .....]

good call

I'm sticking with 6th. Bold I know but **** it.

We don't have the home form for it. Can see us being in the top 6 for away form though.

6x away wins = 18 points

4x home wins = 12 points

9 draws = 9 points

= 39 points

Wait so after winning 2 of our first 3 away games that we'll only win 4 more for the rest of the season?

I will re-judge at the end of October. Once teams work us out or if Brad fails to save us, we will not find it as easy.

Great prediction back in September from Dodgy

I'd be pleased to be so close, if it wasn't so sad.

good call

[briny_ear]

 

The maximum likelihood table is now:

1. Man City (=1)

2. Liverpool (=2)

3. Chelsea (=3)

4. Arsenal (=4)

5. Everton (=5)

6. Spurs (=6)

7. Man Utd (=7)

8. Southampton (=8)

9. Newcastle (=10)

10. Stoke (=9)

11. Palace (=11)

12. Swansea (=12)

13. West Ham (=13)

14. West Brom (=17)

15. Villa (=15)

16. Hull (=16)

17. Sunderland (=14)

18. Norwich (=18)

19. Fulham (=19)

20. Cardiff (=20)

 

16/20.

 

Sunderland were bucking the trend right up to the last day, as were West Brom in the other direction.

[briny_ear]

And just to show how well I can read form, here was me on 17 April in "The R Word" thread:

 

 

Don't think Sunderland were ever in with a prayer of escaping relegation tbf so they are not the ones we have to worry about.

 

Fulham are the ones to watch.

[leviramsey]

If the season started today (using last season's teams), Monte Carlo (using form since mid-February as the basis for rating) suggests:

9th: 0.1%

10th: 0.3%

11th: 0.7%

12th: 1.8%

13th: 3.8%

14th: 6.7%

15th: 9.6%

^^^ upper quartile

16th: 12.3%

17th: 14.5%

18th: 16.7% == median

vvv lower quartile

19th: 17.7% <- max likelihood

20th: 15.8%

Max likelihood table

1. Man City

2. Chelsea

3. Arsenal

4. Liverpool

5. Everton

6. Man Utd

7. Stoke

8. Spurs

9. Palace

10. Southampton

11. Swansea

12. Sunderland

13. West Ham

14. WBA

15. Fulham

16. Hull

17. Newcastle

18. Cardiff

19. Villa

20. Norwich

A lot of changes needed...

Edited May 14, 2014 by leviramsey

[MakemineVanilla]

Fascinating thread and a big thumbs-up for those who were brave enough to own up to their over-optimistic early-season predictions.

 

Dodgyknees should win something tasteless in claret and blue plastic for his outstanding prognostication.

 

For those seeking consolation, it seems that they were no worse than the number-crunchers when it came to predicting Villa's final finishing position, and just like every fan, the difference-engine got a lot better as the games got fewer.

 

Most interesting to me was how much pressure there was in the early pages to be optimistic; the romancers were getting all the stars, and Woodytom got flak (sarcasm) for being too pessimistic, which turned out to be more accurate than those who went unmolested for predicting top-4 or higher.

 

This mild sanction certainly discouraged people from expressing their pessimism and I am sure skewed many the predictions towards the positive.

 

The first demand of 'Lambert and Lerner out' came in Feb 8th, which probably marks the turning of the tide in orthodox opinion amongst the fans.

 

Fascinating stuff.

[briny_ear]

If the season started today (using last season's teams), Monte Carlo (using form since mid-February as the basis for rating) suggests:

9th: 0.1%

10th: 0.3%

11th: 0.7%

12th: 1.8%

13th: 3.8%

14th: 6.7%

15th: 9.6%

^^^ upper quartile

16th: 12.3%

17th: 14.5%

18th: 16.7% == median

vvv lower quartile

19th: 17.7% <- max likelihood

20th: 15.8%

Max likelihood table

1. Man City

2. Chelsea

3. Arsenal

4. Liverpool

5. Everton

6. Man Utd

7. Stoke

8. Spurs

9. Palace

10. Southampton

11. Swansea

12. Sunderland

13. West Ham

14. WBA

15. Fulham

16. Hull

17. Newcastle

18. Cardiff

19. Villa

20. Norwich

A lot of changes needed...

Crikey, that is scary, and confirms my feeling that our decline last season was longer term, and not a case as some argued of everything being OK until after the Chelsea match when we collapsed inexplicably.

[Mantis]

Don't think anyone thought "everything" was ok up until the Chelsea match, but there was an alarming drop in form after then. All it really confirms is that since mid-February we had pretty poor form, which I don't think anyone tried to deny in the first place.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Mantis

[markavfc40]

From beginning of February we played 15 games, won 3, drew 2 and lost 10. Just 11 points from a possible 45. In fact if you look at the last 9 games we took 4 points from a possible 27.  That is absolutely dire and one of the worst runs I can ever remember us having.

 

Stating the obvious I know but we need a massive rebuild over the summer.

[briny_ear]

I'd still put the start of the decline after the away win to Southampton in early December. That was our season's peak and in the following 24 games, we won 5, drew 4 and lost 15. We got 19 points from a possible 72. Fortunately, we already had 19 points from our first 14 games so we just about scraped enough to stay up. (So much like Mcleish's season it is spooky.)

 

But you are right to highlight the exceptionally poor return from the last 9 games, Mark. There was a real implosion and you can only be immensely pessimistic about next season unless something stellar emerges from Randy's attempts to sell the club.