Everton

[blandy]

1 hour ago, BOF said:

Pick which 3 of the 6 clubs currently above them are all going to fall behind them.

If you let the imagination go a bit, then you could pick any/all of them. I mean just a few years ago who could have thunk that Man Ure would drop out of the top 4 and stay out? Things change. Everton with money and a new bigger ground and some consistent efforts to do what others have done - why not? If Spurs can do it, Man City can do it.... Liverpool are not much ahead of Everton right now, Arsenal seem to be fading, Man Utd failing to progress in terms of getting in the top 4, Man City didn't set the world alight.

If Chelsea can finish mid table with Mourinho, Leicester can win the league, then Everton have some possibility of getting top 4. They've already shown they can do miracles, after all - £75 mill rising to 90 for Lukaku is tantamount to doing that thing with the parting of the sea and something... something... bread. 

 

[BOF]

Just now, blandy said:

I*f you let the imagination go a bit, then you could pick any/all of them. I mean just a few years ago who could have thunk that Man Ure would drop out of the top 4 and stay out? Things change. Everton with money and a new bigger ground and some consistent efforts to do what others have done - why not? If Spurs can do it, Man City can do it Liverpool are not much ahead of Everton right now, Arsenal seem to be fading, Man Utd failing to progress in terms of getting in the top 4, Man City didn't set the world alight.

If Chelsea can finish mid table with Mourinho, Leicester can win the league, then Everton have some possibility of getting top 4. They've already shown they can do miracles, after all - £75 mill rising to 90 for Lukaku is tantamount to doing that thing with the parting of the sea and something... something... bread. 

 

The OP was "more likely", not "can't be done".  It was said that Everton getting top 4 was more likely than us bridging the gap to them.  It was never said that either scenario was impossible.  Given that Southampton were 8th with 46pts and we're not beyond the realms of promotion this season, and given the difficulty of that final jump into top 4, I think it more likely that we bridge the gap before they come top 4. 

[bobzy]

6 minutes ago, BOF said:

And you're getting towards the crux of my point.  For them to come 4th it needs 3 to drop.  Getting above Arsenal puts them 6th.

I'd say it's more likely we get promoted this season than they get 4th.  I'd say it's more likely we stay up next season than they get 4th and I'd say it's more likely that we start to bridge the gap than them getting 4th.  The gap; or let's call it chasm; between them and 4th is a very difficult one to bridge.  They're beginning to find out how difficult now that they're so close their rivals are stealing their best players.

The best player they've had "stolen" from them are John Stones (£52m) and Romelu Lukaku (£75m) who are both very good players, but also both incredibly limited.

Everton are perhaps 3 players away from being a side equal to that of Liverpool/Arsenal/Spurs/Man Utd IMO.  We are an entire squad away from being anywhere near that quality.

[bobzy]

2 minutes ago, BOF said:

The OP was "more likely", not "can't be done".  It was said that Everton getting top 4 was more likely than us bridging the gap to them.  It was never said that either scenario was impossible.  Given that Southampton were 8th with 46pts and we're not beyond the realms of promotion this season, and given the difficulty of that final jump into top 4, I think it more likely that we bridge the gap before they come top 4. 

We'd probably need to define "catching up" - I mean, Everton (in 7th) were closer to the top 4 (on GD) than Southampton (in 8th) were to Everton.  Place-wise, you could say they've "caught" Everton.

The reality is that they really haven't.

[BOF]

Just now, bobzy said:

We'd probably need to define "catching up" - I mean, Everton (in 7th) were closer to the top 4 (on GD) than Southampton (in 8th) were to Everton.  Place-wise, you could say they've "caught" Everton.

The reality is that they really haven't.

Another way of putting it is that it is a hell of a lot easier for us to improve from where we are than it is for Everton to improve from where they are.  So the relative gap between us gets smaller as we improve and they continue to bang their head against the top 4 wall (that's the 'bridging' that I'm on about).  It is entirely possible; nay statistically likely; that Everton have hit their ceiling.  Many clubs (cough Villa cough) have got to the point Everton are at now, and could not go any further for a variety of reasons, be it investment or plunder.

[bobzy]

3 minutes ago, BOF said:

Another way of putting it is that it is a hell of a lot easier for us to improve from where we are than it is for Everton to improve from where they are.  So the relative gap between us gets smaller as we improve and they continue to bang their head against the top 4 wall (that's the 'bridging' that I'm on about).  It is entirely possible; nay statistically likely; that Everton have hit their ceiling.  Many clubs (cough Villa cough) have got to the point Everton are at now, and could not go any further for a variety of reasons, be it investment or plunder.

Maybe.  Past 3 seasons have seen Everton finish 11th, 11th and 7th.  They've bought well and sold well (IMO) and have bridged the gap in terms of quality between themselves and the sides above them.

We've done the opposite in almost every regard and are now braced for possible FFP sanctions in the not-so-distant.

[blandy]

3 hours ago, BOF said:

The OP was "more likely", not "can't be done".  It was said that Everton getting top 4 was more likely than us bridging the gap to them.  It was never said that either scenario was impossible.  Given that Southampton were 8th with 46pts and we're not beyond the realms of promotion this season, and given the difficulty of that final jump into top 4, I think it more likely that we bridge the gap before they come top 4. 

Personally I think just getting out of the Endsleigh Cola Championship Old first division League is harder than Everton catching up into the top 4.

Then Villa staying up if/once up is also harder than Everton catching the top 4

then Villa going from staying up to catching Everton is another leap again

So I reckon it's about 3 times as hard and much less likely for Villa to catch up to where Everton are at now, as it is for Everton to move from where they're at now, to being in the top 4.

[BOF]

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

Personally I think just getting out of the Endsleigh Cola Championship Old first division League is harder than Everton catching up into the top 4.

Then Villa staying up if/once up is also harder than Everton catching the top 4

then Villa going from staying up to catching Everton is another leap again

So I reckon it's about 3 times as hard and much less likely for Villa to catch up to where Everton are at now, as it is for Everton to move from where they're at now, to being in the top 4.

Well then we shall agree to disagree.  For me, the leap from being top of the 'have nots' into the 'haves' (never mind getting half way up through the 'haves') is every bit as big as climbing through the rank and filers.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, BOF said:

For me, the leap from being top of the 'have nots' into the 'haves' (never mind getting half way up through the 'haves') is every bit as big as

I get where you're coming from. I just think that if we look back then becoming a "have" has basically consisted of having an eff-ton of money. Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd (though they were already there) are where they are through a big, huge, wodge of wonga. Yes, manager, players blah blah. But money. Man City have basically money muscled past Liverpool, Arsenal (and Utd). Chelsea the same. if Everton can replicate that, then they have every chance, from their current position just outside. Yes it's hard because there are other wealthy clubs around there, too. But they seem to be emulating the Spurs route, or trying to. If Spurs have managed it, which they have, then I see a route for Everton, with their rich owner and new ground. It's not easy, far from it, but it's not unpossible.

Anyway, bring on Burton Albion.

[PaulC]

The new stadium is a long way off isn't it. They plan to build it on the docklands don't they so there will be a lot of objections

[AndyGray1985]

Being an Everton supporter with a lot of time for Villa I've read this latest discussion with great interest.

My view is that both clubs have a "bandwith" - Villas currently being from mid-table Championship at worst to top 7 in the PL at best within 24 months. Quite a huge spread of 20+ league placings, but given luck, finances and players gelling to a team not out of the question - and vice versa. Evertons range is narrower - probably 14th-3rd - and, as each place upwards becomes progressively harder, more likely 9th-5th. So Villa can get on par with Everton within a couple of season, but it will not be very likely to happen. The continuous flow of income will be so different that FFP-rules will prevent Villa from closing the gap on transfers and salaries within the 24 months - making the on-field results less likely to happen. A lot of the discussion seem to confuse possible and likely - I'm not sure whether there's any real disagreement here.

[villa4europe]

On 7/12/2017 at 17:11, BOF said:

Well then we shall agree to disagree.  For me, the leap from being top of the 'have nots' into the 'haves' (never mind getting half way up through the 'haves') is every bit as big as climbing through the rank and filers.

i agree with this

for me personally the things that will get us promoted and then see us stay up, the manager, the playing staff etc between the range of mid table championship and mid table arent that different, once you start getting top 10 prem though, everyone starts sniffing, if you have a 20 goal striker someone will poach him, if you have an england international CB someone will poach him, if you have a young exciting manager playing great football someone will poach him

the biggest problem is the players capable of playing top 4 and champions league inevitably end up playing top 4 and champions league...they dont wait for their current club to get there

everton have shown that in the last couple of seasons, post bale spurs have kept their players and got there, unless everton start doing the same then they wont

 

[Xela]

Barkley on his way out.

I don't think he's good enough to play for any of the teams above Everton 

[villan-scott]

He's Spurs bound apparently, which is an odd one for me if it happens. Not sure how you fit Eriksen, Alli and Barkley in. 

I don't think Everton will miss him. 

[Zatman]

Barkley will probably go like Sissoko

[VillaChris]

On 7/17/2017 at 12:43, villa4europe said:

i agree with this

for me personally the things that will get us promoted and then see us stay up, the manager, the playing staff etc between the range of mid table championship and mid table arent that different, once you start getting top 10 prem though, everyone starts sniffing, if you have a 20 goal striker someone will poach him, if you have an england international CB someone will poach him, if you have a young exciting manager playing great football someone will poach him

the biggest problem is the players capable of playing top 4 and champions league inevitably end up playing top 4 and champions league...they dont wait for their current club to get there

everton have shown that in the last couple of seasons, post bale spurs have kept their players and got there, unless everton start doing the same then they wont

 

To stay up the aim is always 40 points (even though teams usually stay up on about 37-38 points like we did a few times).

Last few seasons teams in 9th and 10th have struggled to even reach 50 points as so many of them just clock off once they hit 40 points. West Brom got there start of March and won a single game from that point and there's plenty of examples of that.

Gap from 16th-8th really isn't that big, it can be achieved by simply winning a few games in the run in while other teams are on the beach.

As Everton fan says to once you hit 6-7th to go up even 2 places is very tough, we saw that in the MON years. Occasionally you get a Chelsea or Liverpool who totally bomb and that opens up a place but everyone saw how consisant the top 6 were last year, Leicester winning the title woke them all up.

I think just slashing money is too easy, you need the mentality to go with it. In those MON years we had opportunities to cement top 4 and just froze, take 08-09. We'd played well enough to get 6 points clear of Arsenal with 10 games left and then just couldn't win a game because the team didn't believe they were better than Arsenal at a crunch moment.

Same for Everton, their record v Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in recent times is abysmal. If you don't get enough points against those teams you have little chance of top 4.

[Dr_Pangloss]

Barkley isn't very good IMO, top half player yes, but not top 6 quality.

[VillaChris]

His end product is woeful compared to Dele Ali.

[PaulC]

52 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

To stay up the aim is always 40 points (even though teams usually stay up on about 37-38 points like we did a few times).

Last few seasons teams in 9th and 10th have struggled to even reach 50 points as so many of them just clock off once they hit 40 points. West Brom got there start of March and won a single game from that point and there's plenty of examples of that.

Gap from 16th-8th really isn't that big, it can be achieved by simply winning a few games in the run in while other teams are on the beach.

As Everton fan says to once you hit 6-7th to go up even 2 places is very tough, we saw that in the MON years. Occasionally you get a Chelsea or Liverpool who totally bomb and that opens up a place but everyone saw how consisant the top 6 were last year, Leicester winning the title woke them all up.

I think just slashing money is too easy, you need the mentality to go with it. In those MON years we had opportunities to cement top 4 and just froze, take 08-09. We'd played well enough to get 6 points clear of Arsenal with 10 games left and then just couldn't win a game because the team didn't believe they were better than Arsenal at a crunch moment.

Same for Everton, their record v Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in recent times is abysmal. If you don't get enough points against those teams you have little chance of top 4.

I don't think that was the reason Chris. The reason we failed under Oneill to maintain our position in the top 4 going into March was purely down to the squad. We basically had 11 players who were able to compete against the best but by March they were always burnt out. Oneill wasn't very good at managing the squad or didn't buy good squad players

Edited July 26, 2017 by PaulC

[TheAuthority]

3 hours ago, VillaChris said:

To stay up the aim is always 40 points (even though teams usually stay up on about 37-38 points like we did a few times).

Last few seasons teams in 9th and 10th have struggled to even reach 50 points as so many of them just clock off once they hit 40 points. West Brom got there start of March and won a single game from that point and there's plenty of examples of that.

Gap from 16th-8th really isn't that big, it can be achieved by simply winning a few games in the run in while other teams are on the beach.

As Everton fan says to once you hit 6-7th to go up even 2 places is very tough, we saw that in the MON years. Occasionally you get a Chelsea or Liverpool who totally bomb and that opens up a place but everyone saw how consisant the top 6 were last year, Leicester winning the title woke them all up.

I think just slashing money is too easy, you need the mentality to go with it. In those MON years we had opportunities to cement top 4 and just froze, take 08-09. We'd played well enough to get 6 points clear of Arsenal with 10 games left and then just couldn't win a game because the team didn't believe they were better than Arsenal at a crunch moment.

Same for Everton, their record v Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in recent times is abysmal. If you don't get enough points against those teams you have little chance of top 4.

 

2 hours ago, PaulC said:

I don't think that was the reason Chris. The reason we failed under Oneill to maintain our position in the top 4 going into March was purely down to the squad. We basically had 11 players who were able to compete against the best but by March they were always burnt out. Oneill wasn't very good at managing the squad or didn't buy good squad players

I agree with a bit of both of those arguments. There were home games right towards the end of the 08/09 season against Wolves and (I think) Sunderland where we got 1-1 draws and just froze instead of winning. I remember Barry having the ball consistently just outside the Wolves box and not doing anything with it. As much as I respect him even then I thought, if he really was our Gerrard or Lampard he would bang one in the top corner in the 90th minute.

We simply didn't have a real "winner" in the team - someone to drive us over the line at that crucial time.  So our season spluttered and we stuttered over the line and finished 6th and guess who was in 5th? That's right, Everton so I'm not off topic