Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[viivvaa66]

39 minutes ago, skarroki said:

Isn't 8th high enough if one of the English clubs wins one of the European trophies? Not sure if I read that somewhere. 

Think something like if Man Utd win Europa and finish 4th then they qualify for the champions League twice, so all qualifications drop down a peg. Same for man city / spurs / Liverpool winning champions league and getting top 4. 

I don't think Fulham or Brentford finish above us so it's just a case of having a better run in than one of Brighton or Chelsea for me. 

If one of the top 4 wins the Champions League, noting happens. However if one of the clubs in position 5 to 7 (assuming the top 4 wins the cups) wins either the Champions League or the Europa League, they will qualify to the Champions League, and that 8 place will get spot in UEFA Conferences League.

[Tom13]

Results have been good under Emery, in his 12 league games he's faced Arsenal, City (away), United, Spurs (away) and Liverpool. Brighton away is also no walk in the park.

However, although he's undoubtedly improved our performances significantly, I still don't think our levels are quite good enough to maintain enough momentum to be anywhere near a push for Europe.

[Jareth]

It's been a strange season, again, but there are a lot of average teams around and a few who should be doing far better. We obvs aren't the finished article but seem to be getting the points needed under Emery - I'd say it'll be close, but who knows what a bit of a run will do for us, just keep getting those points and we shall see. 

[fightoffyour]

7 hours ago, viivvaa66 said:

If one of the top 4 wins the Champions League, noting happens. However if one of the clubs in position 5 to 7 (assuming the top 4 wins the cups) wins either the Champions League or the Europa League, they will qualify to the Champions League, and that 8 place will get spot in UEFA Conferences League.

Not true, that place is not transferred. There would be an extra (5th) CL place but only 1 EL place.

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How does winning UCL/UEL affect qualification?

Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's competition regardless of their league finishing position.

Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Europa League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's UEFA Champions League regardless of their league finishing position.

If a club win the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League and finish in the top four, their qualification for the UCL through their league position is not transferred to another team.  

A maximum of five Premier League teams are eligible for UEFA Champions League qualification.

In the event that a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League and another win the UEFA Europa League and neither of these clubs finish in the top four of the Premier League, the club lying fourth in the table will drop into the UEFA Europa League group stage.

 

It seems like 8 teams could qualify for Europe in extreme circumstances, but it's never through actually finishing 8th in the PL:

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If a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League and another win the UEFA Europa League and neither have qualified for UEFA competitions through their league positions or by winning the FA Cup or EFL Cup, they will qualify for the UEFA Champions League and the club finishing fourth in the table will drop into the UEFA Europa League group stage. 

This UEFA Europa League group stage place will be in addition to the one for the club finishing fifth and to the places in the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League for the FA Cup and EFL Cup winners (or for the highest-ranked clubs not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League if the FA Cup and EFL Cup winners have already qualified for UEFA competitions through their league position).

I will caveat that with there is no explanation here about what happens if a team also wins the ECL.

Also soon there will usually be a 5th English team qualifying for the CL anyway through the league coefficient.

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Under the approved country coefficient system England would have secured an extra place in four of the last five seasons, the exception being performance in the 2019-20 season, when the places would have gone to Germany and Spain.

 

[viivvaa66]

9 hours ago, viivvaa66 said:

If one of the top 4 wins the Champions League, noting happens. However if one of the clubs in position 5 to 7 (assuming the top 4 wins the cups) wins either the Champions League or the Europa League, they will qualify to the Champions League, and that 8 place will get spot in UEFA Conferences League.

1 hour ago, fightoffyour said:

Not true, that place is not transferred. There would be an extra (5th) CL place but only 1 EL place.

Read the section you were quoting again, it said that the Champions League place is not transferred, just as I said.

“If a club win the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League and finish in the top four, their qualification for the UCL through their league position is not transferred to another team.”

There is no mentioning anywhere that if England get 5 Champions League place they would lose one Europa League place.

Actually there is a possibility that 9th place in the league get into Europe, but that is a long shot.

Here is how:

FA cup and league cup won by teams already qualified to Europe trough league position.

Top 4 into Champions League

5th place winning Champions League or winning Europa League and qualify for Champions League. 

6th and 7th will qualify for Europe League

8th winning Conference League and qualify for Europe League

9th qualify for Conference League.

[fightoffyour]

49 minutes ago, viivvaa66 said:

Read the section you were quoting again, it said that the Champions League place is not transferred, just as I said.

“If a club win the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League and finish in the top four, their qualification for the UCL through their league position is not transferred to another team.”

There is no mentioning anywhere that if England get 5 Champions League place they would lose one Europa League place.

Actually there is a possibility that 9th place in the league get into Europe, but that is a long shot.

Here is how:

FA cup and league cup won by teams already qualified to Europe trough league position.

Top 4 into Champions League

5th place winning Champions League or winning Europa League and qualify for Champions League. 

6th and 7th will qualify for Europe League

8th winning Conference League and qualify for Europe League

9th qualify for Conference League.

Still not true.

Quote

How does qualification work for other European titleholders?

This can no longer apply this season, but it's worth explaining.

By winning the Europa League, a club earns a place in the Champions League group stage. How that affects European places in the Premier League depends purely on where they finish.

There are three overriding principles:
- The winners of a European competition have the automatic right to European football the following season.
- A team has the right to play in the highest-ranked competition they qualify for.
- Another Premier League team cannot be affected by another's success in Europe.

There are a few caveats, but it's best to keep things simple for the purposes of this article.

So if a team wins the Europa League:
- They are guaranteed to play in the Champions League wherever they finish in the Premier League
- Eighth in the Premier League cannot qualify for Europe as a result of this

If the Europa League winners finish in the top four, nothing changes for the Premier League. The UCL qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.

If the Europa League winners finish fifth or sixth, there would be only one Premier League team in the Europa League:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, UEL winners
Europa League: 5 or 6 only
Europa Conference League: 7

If the Europa League winners finish seventh, there would be no English team in the Europa Conference League:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, UEL winners
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: -

This happened in Spain last season, when Villarreal won the Europa League and finished seventh, meaning LaLiga had no representative in the inaugural season of the Europa Conference League.

If the Europa League winners finish lower than seventh, they would their place in Europe as titleholders but the top seven would be unaffected -- there would be eight Premier League teams in Europe:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, UEL winners
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7

The same outline principles apply to any team that wins the Europa Conference League.

If the Europa Conference League winners finish in the top six, nothing changes for the Premier League. The qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.

If the UECL winners finish seventh, they play in the Europa League and there is no Premier League team in the UECL. If the UECL winners finish lower than seventh, it would create an additional team in Europe as titleholders.

Most importantly:

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Can eighth in the Premier League qualify for Europe?

It is impossible for eighth to qualify by league position. This team must win a domestic cup competition or a European title to play in Europe the following season.

In your scenario, 8th qualifies for EL by winning ECL. It is irrelevant that they finished 8th in the PL, they could as well finish 20th and still qualify for EL

9th (or 8th, if ECL winner finishes lower in the PL) does not qualify for the ECL in this case. No team does.

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by fightoffyour

[Tomaszk]

If Kamara was fit I'd actually be optimistic about catching Newcastle, Fulham and Brentford. That would still only put us 8th.

Let's just finish really strongly and buy well in the summer.

Literally two players transformed Newcastle. If we sign two as good as Guimaraes and Botman, we finish top 7 next season. Zero doubt.

[Vive_La_Villa]

I’d actually be disappointed if we don’t finish top 10 considering the teams we have left to play.

[maqroll]

Fulham losing to Brentford isn't the worst result for us. 

[abdulaziz1]

1 minute ago, maqroll said:

Fulham losing to Brentford isn't the worst result for us. 

Nor the best. 
But if we keep winning it could be really good potentially.

[VillaChris]

Just now, abdulaziz1 said:

Nor the best. 
But if we keep winning it could be really good potentially.

I think Fulham and Brentford (still got aways to Liverpool, Chelsea, Man. United, Spurs) will struggle to get much over 50 points or not even reach that tally at all.

Both are basically safe now so have to think intensity will drop a bit as that was the target in August. Fulham still in FA cup aswell.

We need 6 wins to get to 52 points so that should be a legitimate target with the fixtures left.

[fightoffyour]

Draw would’ve been better, especially for the short-term goal of getting into the top half, but I still think we’ll catch both (extent and impact of Kamara’s injury notwithstanding).

[Keyblade]

8 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Draw would’ve been better, especially for the short-term goal of getting into the top half, but I still think we’ll catch both (extent and impact of Kamara’s injury notwithstanding).

We have to play both as well, Fulham at home.

[ender4]

Fulham 5 points ahead of us in 7th having played a game more. Catchable.
 

Brighton 4 points ahead in 8th, but with 2 games in hand. Very tricky to catch. 
 

Brentford 4 points ahead in 9th, with 1 game in hand. Feels catchable. 
 

Chelsea in 10th, same points and same amount of games played. Assuming their billion pound squad will click at some point  and we’ll struggle to match them. 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

1 hour ago, ender4 said:

Fulham 5 points ahead of us in 7th having played a game more. Catchable.
 

Brighton 4 points ahead in 8th, but with 2 games in hand. Very tricky to catch. 
 

Brentford 4 points ahead in 9th, with 1 game in hand. Feels catchable. 
 

Chelsea in 10th, same points and same amount of games played. Assuming their billion pound squad will click at some point  and we’ll struggle to match them. 

We are essentially top of the bottom league.

The aim is now to become bottom of the top 10 League and see what we can do.

9th/10th is a " good season " for us now, snatch 8th and it's exceptional imo.

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, ender4 said:

Chelsea in 10th, same points and same amount of games played. Assuming their billion pound squad will click at some point  and we’ll struggle to match them. 

Hasn’t yet. And their fixtures pretty much only get harder.

I’ve got us finishing in a group with Chelsea, Brentford and Fulham come the end of the season, with Brighton, spurs, Newcastle and Liverpool having broken ahead. We need to at least maintain Emery’s results to date and/or hope one of the later group tanks pretty hard to get 7th.

Edited March 6, 2023 by tomsky_11

[Zhan_Zhuang]

If we stay top four in the form table we may have a slight chance of seventh.

That would mean probably winning against Newcastle, Brentford, Fulham and Brighton.

Winning our next two matches sets us up for a strong finish, confidence will be high.

[KMitch]

We honestly just need to take things one game at a time.  The table is going to look very different in a month from now after all these games in hand are played.  

[TheMightyVillans]

We have a pretty decent run of games remaining. With kamara being injured i'm not very confident we can get 7th though. Squad just looks too thin. 

If we can get to 50 points with kamara missing for a number of games then that would be an amazing season considering the start we had thanks to that fraud of a manager.

[KMitch]

All the doom and gloom around Kamara being injured...  CM is the only position we have depth at...  Donk is fine for us away from home and Chambers was Fulham's Player of the Season a few years back playing DM for them (my Fulham supporting mate still raves about how good he was for them that season).  I'm still confident we can get wins without Kamara.  On the other hand, if we lost Watkins for 5 games...  I wouldn't be so confident about scoring very many goals.