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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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4 hours ago, TRO said:

where we are now, is fine by me.

I think we are still a bit up and down to challenge for Europe....we have lost too many games to be setting our sights high.

Glad my Champions league joke didn't go over your head. Nothing more enjoyable on a tedious Sunday than filling the void with a wind - up. It's like fishing for mackerel. 

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7 minutes ago, Zatman said:

We have taken 19 points from the last 30 available but you dont think we can take 12 points from the next available 54 points

The level of cynicism around VillaTalk after a loss is unreal.  

TBH, unless we get incredibly lucky, I can't see us finishing higher than 10th this season, with Fulham falling off into 11th.  We just don't have the quality up top to consistently finish our chances off for us and we're too prone to making mistakes at the back.  If we finish higher than that, awesome!  We've exceeded expectations and some players are better than I've believe and we won't need to replace them all in the next few seasons.  If we finish below 10th, then it means some players actually aren't good enough and even a world class coach can't get a tune out of them consistently and will be moved on sooner than later.

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IT was never really possible to get into the top 7. I said 9th was the real target. As the Big 6 + Newcastle and Brighton are not realistically teams we can overhaul. Fulham and Brentford are the two key targets we need to be zoned in on. 

We've three really tough games now City, Arsenal and away at Everton.

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Of course, anything is possible...

As before the Leicester defeat Villa were only three points off eighth and four off sixth.

However it does seem like a missed opportunity and we now have three difficult fixtures.

After that though many winnable fixtures over the last twelve games or so.

Still hoping for a top ten place at the very least.

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1 minute ago, duke313 said:

It just wasn't our day against Liverpool, we should have scored 4 or 5 goals.

Same as Leicester, I guess. It happens, but you have to bounce back, which I think we will in the next 3 games to lead a charge over the final stretch of the season.

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3 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Typical Villa.

Recent events could hit Man City two ways, it could either have them unfocused, or have them angry and wound up enough to want to send out a statement on the pitch.

We know how our luck tends to go with these things. lol

Ramsey, Bailey and Watkins can hurt there defence on the counter attack

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17 hours ago, KMitch said:

The level of cynicism around VillaTalk after a loss is unreal.  

TBH, unless we get incredibly lucky, I can't see us finishing higher than 10th this season, with Fulham falling off into 11th.  We just don't have the quality up top to consistently finish our chances off for us and we're too prone to making mistakes at the back.  If we finish higher than that, awesome!  We've exceeded expectations and some players are better than I've believe and we won't need to replace them all in the next few seasons.  If we finish below 10th, then it means some players actually aren't good enough and even a world class coach can't get a tune out of them consistently and will be moved on sooner than later.

If Brentford's home form tails off we really should be finishing above them. They've only won two away all season and still have to go to Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Liverpool. Also got tricky aways at likes of Everton and Wolves who are battlling relegation (mind you so do we!).

I imagine going that must be the hardest away run of any current top 10 side so they won't win that many and then see how many they draw/lose at home in the run in.

What is ridiculous though is how good their GD is. +7 while we're at -6 and yet we beat them 4-0 in the meeting this season! Only lost 4 games aswell which is ridiculous considering their resources.

Despite the disappointment at the weekend we still should be finishing top half.

I also think Liverpool have mentally checked out for the season aswell. Might rouse themselves for CL but when you look at how bad they are away from home it dosen't quite suggest they're going to reel 4-5 wins straight anytime soon. I think if there's no response from them at home to Everton that shows they will be struggling to even reach 50 points.

Edited by VillaChris
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12 hours ago, AvonVillain said:

Same as Leicester, I guess. It happens, but you have to bounce back, which I think we will in the next 3 games to lead a charge over the final stretch of the season.

Think March is more important personally. Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth should be a solid 7 point job. However West Ham is a nightmare season in season out due to their style, Palace always has a feel of 1-1 type of game as it was back end of last season and our record is rubbish v Bournemouth in recent times.

Only 3-4 points from those 3 and our season will pretty much be over. If we're close to 40 points then there's still plenty to play for in the last 10-11 games.

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On 06/02/2023 at 12:30, Tayls said:

So are we confident that Villa can hit the 40 points mark this season?

 

On 06/02/2023 at 14:40, Lupinthe5th said:

50 surely

 

On 06/02/2023 at 15:44, TRO said:

I don't know how we can predict anything.....such is the unpredictable manner of our play.

 

If our form drops off and we revert to our previous managers average PPG (Smith = 1.15, Gerrard = 1.16), then we are looking at a 47/48 point season.

Currently, Emery is averaging 2 PPG in the PL (even with the Leicester loss), but i think that's almost certainly unsustainable, if we set a higher end target of 1.5 PPG, that would give us a season total of 53/54 points.

So, depending on form, somewhere between 47 and 54 points is the most balanced view i think, anything above that would be exceptional, and beyond any reasonable expectation.

Anything lower in terms of avg. PPG for the last 17 games, would be mind bogglingly poor form, even 0.8 PPG between now and the end of the season would put us on 41/42 points for the season (ie: 0.8 PPG over the season, is a 30/31 point season total).

Edited by MaVilla
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