Generic Virus Thread

[Silent_Bob]

30 million doses of AZ meant for the UK have been found in Italy...

[a m ole]

Regardless of what is right or wrong in terms of future lockdowns etc - and I think unless there’s any serious failures of the vaccine it shouldn’t happen again - try another year of this and see how compliant the public are. I don’t think we’re too far away from real civil unrest should we keep up restrictions.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, Silent_Bob said:

30 million doses of AZ meant for the UK have been found in Italy...

That’s an extremely interesting development.

Produced at the not yet fully approved new factory I believe. AZ keeping these up their sleeve.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, a m ole said:

Regardless of what is right or wrong in terms of future lockdowns etc - and I think unless there’s any serious failures of the vaccine it shouldn’t happen again - try another year of this and see how compliant the public are. I don’t think we’re too far away from real civil unrest should we keep up restrictions.

It certainly is a tricky balance. I civil unrest yes, wide scale civil unrest I don’t think so.

As I said before, if trading heavy restriction on international travel for a more normal daily life in the UK then I think majority are ok with that (for a period of time).

Boris’s claim to have all restrictions removed by 12th June is never going to happen.

[Silent_Bob]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

That’s an extremely interesting development.

Produced at the not yet fully approved new factory I believe. AZ keeping these up their sleeve.

So it works fine, except some people in their outbond logistics department that need to be replaced?

[ml1dch]

11 minutes ago, Silent_Bob said:

30 million doses of AZ meant for the UK have been found in Italy...

Apparently not intended for the UK, but supposedly for Canada and Mexico.

Whether that makes a difference or not. And whether that means that someone has done something they shouldn't or not.

*shrugs*

[StefanAVFC]

10 minutes ago, a m ole said:

Regardless of what is right or wrong in terms of future lockdowns etc - and I think unless there’s any serious failures of the vaccine it shouldn’t happen again - try another year of this and see how compliant the public are. I don’t think we’re too far away from real civil unrest should we keep up restrictions.

Agree. I think another lockdown and compliance won't happen. 

[Don_Simon]

29 minutes ago, a m ole said:

Regardless of what is right or wrong in terms of future lockdowns etc - and I think unless there’s any serious failures of the vaccine it shouldn’t happen again - try another year of this and see how compliant the public are. I don’t think we’re too far away from real civil unrest should we keep up restrictions.

One more lockdown and it will be chaos. It already is in most terms. 

[Genie]

1 minute ago, Don_Simon said:

One more lockdown and it will be chaos. It already is in most terms. 

Would support the argument that international restrictions will stay in place longer than 12th May.

I can’t find it now but I believe it was moved to end of June (so the June 12th finish line already pushed back).

[Seat68]

I thought it was always June the 21st for removing all restrictions 

[bickster]

39 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Agree. I think another lockdown and compliance won't happen. 

I'm not sure why people think compliance is happening now tbh

The only thing people are generally compliant about is not going to closed places. I'm only speaking for my area obviously but I do have access to rather a lot of peoples movement data

This has pretty much been the norm here since Mid-summer

The police are paying lip service at best to the law, they do a few stops at night here and there but, everyone has their lie prepared. They fined a mother once because she got in her car in Anfield, drove to the Beach in Crosby and took her dog for a walk. Such was the backlash, it was quickly changed to advice given and swept under the carpet

 

[Follyfoot]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

The return to school is going badly for my children.

Daughters year group off this week due to confirmed case at the weekend.

Just been informed entire school will close tomorrow and Friday for a deep clean due to more cases.

Lets see if they go back next week, not holding my breath. With Easter holiday after that it could be another month off.

Where is the school if you do not mind me asking 

[Davkaus]

There's a school at the end of my road. Every morning for about 50 meters in each direction, the pavement on both sides of the road is like standing in a packed Holte End concourse, groups of people shoulder to shoulder, people pushing through the crowd, and I stopped going for my morning walk because there's always **** coughing into their hands as well.

[blandy]

16 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'm not sure why people think compliance is happening now tbh

I think compliance (round here) is still widespread, but less so than it was. It was a real exception to see people (who appeared to be) not complying. Now that number is greater, it's less rare, but it's nothing like "compliance has stopped". Distancing, Masks, sanitiser, all that stuff is still almost universal. There are more people driving than there used to be in the earlier lockdowns, there are more people out and about (though the weather's better now, again). I still detect that people are weary of it, but still mostly complying. The daft inconsistency of some of the rules definitely gets more comment, now and I think the fear factor around the virus is much lower than it was, which might explain some of it.

[Genie]

21 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

Where is the school if you do not mind me asking 

It’s in Tamworth 

[darrenm]

 

27 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'm not sure why people think compliance is happening now tbh

The only thing people are generally compliant about is not going to closed places. I'm only speaking for my area obviously but I do have access to rather a lot of peoples movement data

This has pretty much been the norm here since Mid-summer

The police are paying lip service at best to the law, they do a few stops at night here and there but, everyone has their lie prepared. They fined a mother once because she got in her car in Anfield, drove to the Beach in Crosby and took her dog for a walk. Such was the backlash, it was quickly changed to advice given and swept under the carpet

 

 

6 minutes ago, blandy said:

I think compliance (round here) is still widespread, but less so than it was. It was a real exception to see people (who appeared to be) not complying. Now that number is greater, it's less rare, but it's nothing like "compliance has stopped". Distancing, Masks, sanitiser, all that stuff is still almost universal. There are more people driving than there used to be in the earlier lockdowns, there are more people out and about (though the weather's better now, again). I still detect that people are weary of it, but still mostly complying. The daft inconsistency of some of the rules definitely gets more comment, now and I think the fear factor around the virus is much lower than it was, which might explain some of it.

I think it's somewhere in between. I know a few people who are just socialising around each other's houses as they always have done. 

My wife, her brother and in laws have all had the jab so they see no real issue with seeing each other.

I think lockdown fatigue and seeing/hearing of others doing everything they want as long as they have an excuse ready for the police is causing many people who were quite strict about 'following the rules and we all get through this quicker' to think 'if they are, why shouldn't I?' more than they would before.

The people who were very vocal on Facebook about following the rules have all disappeared and are adopting a more pragmatic view about everything. I think they, along with a lot of other people, are wondering why we're delaying opening things back up and delaying relaxing restrictions when the at risk have all long been vaccinated and we're hovering just above zero deaths now.

[chrisp65]

So, far less information or worry about students this time, with the Easter break coming up.

Students appear to have gone from public enemy No 1, risking our very existence, to not getting a mention. Off the radar.

Which is fine by me.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

So, far less information or worry about students this time, with the Easter break coming up.

Students appear to have gone from public enemy No 1, risking our very existence, to not getting a mention. Off the radar.

Which is fine by me.

It’s not clear if the parties have stopped, or whether people have stopped filming and sharing them on social media.

[blandy]

11 minutes ago, darrenm said:

the at risk have all long been vaccinated

Sorry to be a pedant, but that's nowhere near true. They've received the first dose of a two part vaccination. No one knows how long it provides "immunity" for. They reckon that it's around 6 months for those who had the virus and thus had/have an in-built natural "immunity". The vaccine should be longer, hopefully. But how much longer? What if it's not that much longer? what if in 6 or 8 months all those who've now had one or two jags of vaccine start to become vulnerable again? Now maybe if there's little or no fungus at large in the country, that won't matter. But to get to that really low number of cases of fungus, we need more people jagged before we can open up safely AND we need a working track and trace system, which we still don't have, to catch the rare cases and stop them passing it on again.

[darrenm]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

Sorry to be a pedant, but that's nowhere near true. They've received the first dose of a two part vaccination. No one knows how long it provides "immunity" for. They reckon that it's around 6 months for those who had the virus and thus had/have an in-built natural "immunity". The vaccine should be longer, hopefully. But how much longer? What if it's not that much longer? what if in 6 or 8 months all those who've now had one or two jags of vaccine start to become vulnerable again? Now maybe if there's little or no fungus at large in the country, that won't matter. But to get to that really low number of cases of fungus, we need more people jagged before we can open up safely AND we need a working track and trace system, which we still don't have, to catch the rare cases and stop them passing it on again.

For the Oxford/AZ vaccine, efficacy increases from 76% to 82% with the booster:

Quote

A single standard dose of vaccine provided 76% protection overall against symptomatic covid-19 in the first 90 days after vaccination with protection not falling in this time frame. It is not clear, however, how long protection might last with a single dose as there were too few cases after 90 days to make any meaningful judgment.

The analyses suggest that it is the dosing interval and not the dosing level which has the greatest impact on the efficacy of the vaccine. This is in line with previous research supporting greater efficacy with longer intervals with other vaccines such as influenza and Ebola.

The study found vaccine efficacy reached 82.4% after a second dose in those with a dosing interval of 12 weeks or more (95% confidence interval 62.7% to 91.7%). If the two doses were given less than six weeks apart the efficacy was only 54.9% (CI 32.7% to 69.7%).

The Johnson and Johnson single dose vaccine has more or less the same efficacy as a single dose of the AZ vaccine because they're essentially the same thing. Just one is marketed as single dose and the other double dose. You could call the AZ vaccine single dose with 76% efficacy if you wanted. So, sorry, I refuse to accept that a single dose of the AZ vaccine doesn't count as 'vaccinated'. Yeah you get slightly better results after the booster but it's a very small increase.

I agree that not enough is known about the length of protection. In the absence of a 12 week booster, you could reasonably guess it'd be 12 weeks less.