villalad21 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) It's easier coming up trying to survive as a Sheffield United or Burnley style of team rather than what Blackpool, Fulham, Farke and Smith are trying to do. Edited November 11, 2019 by villalad21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zab6359 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 16 hours ago, Farlz said: Newcastle is massive Upsets happen!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I think there's a chance we might sneak a draw against Chelsea or United, and think we're capable of beating Leicester at home, and certainly we can give Sheffield United a good game. The key is the Newcastle match, need to win that one not just for the points but also to get some confidence back going into another tough run of games. Hopefully Grealish will be fit after the international break which as well as being good because it will mean we have our best player back, should also give the rest of the team a lift psychologically as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicon Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 4 hours ago, Demitri_C said: Yeah but I guess you thought we would go there win? I wouldn't have taken a draw before the game. That doesn't mean that I thought we would win, just that we had a chance if we played well. Unfortunately, we didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 2 hours ago, useless said: I think there's a chance we might sneak a draw against Chelsea or United, and think we're capable of beating Leicester at home, and certainly we can give Sheffield United a good game. The key is the Newcastle match, need to win that one not just for the points but also to get some confidence back going into another tough run of games. Hopefully Grealish will be fit after the international break which as well as being good because it will mean we have our best player back, should also give the rest of the team a lift psychologically as well. I agree on the psychological bit. You could see us losing yesterday since the beginning. I actually wanted to go to second half with 1-0 or less as I knew we could do better if we were mentally better. Which we've shown a bit the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Get the injured players back and we can get 5-6 points from that run up to Sheffield united imo. It will require beating Newcastle to set us off again as Useless says. Not an amazing haul but look at it this way, 5 points takes us to 16 points. Two wins v Norwich and Southampton and two draws at Watford and Burnley would have us on 24 points on New years day. We'd only need then 14 points in second half of the season to be reasonably sure of staying up. Way I'm looking at it now we need to be on miminum of 20 points on New Years day. I think in two of the Lambert seasons we were around that points total at new year. We only just stayed up in all three seasons so would be tough if we didn't even have that especially as we were on 11 points by mid October. 9 games to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 14 hours ago, VillaChris said: Get the injured players back and we can get 5-6 points from that run up to Sheffield united imo. It will require beating Newcastle to set us off again as Useless says. Not an amazing haul but look at it this way, 5 points takes us to 16 points. Two wins v Norwich and Southampton and two draws at Watford and Burnley would have us on 24 points on New years day. We'd only need then 14 points in second half of the season to be reasonably sure of staying up. Way I'm looking at it now we need to be on miminum of 20 points on New Years day. I think in two of the Lambert seasons we were around that points total at new year. We only just stayed up in all three seasons so would be tough if we didn't even have that especially as we were on 11 points by mid October. 9 games to do it. I don't see us drawing with Watford. They are crap even if they have troy deeney. I think we should be able to smack them if we are fully fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 27 minutes ago, MotoMkali said: I don't see us drawing with Watford. They are crap even if they have troy deeney. I think we should be able to smack them if we are fully fit. Watford are 10th in the PL table in terms of expected points this season, far higher than us. They should be far higher up the table than they actually are but for some reason, are not. I think we would be wise not to underestimate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said: Watford are 10th in the PL table in terms of expected points this season, far higher than us. They should be far higher up the table than they actually are but for some reason, are not. I think we would be wise not to underestimate them. The reason we are lower than them in expected points is because of the last 20 minutes of spurs, arsenal and Burnley etc. We sat back and let them have 20 shots. Against a team like Watford I think we are less likely to do that and potentially we may have changed tactics or Dean has wised up to the fact that he can use substitions before the opponents have scored multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Watford have only lost once in the last five games, they're showing signs of turning things around, we could do with Burnley putting a stop to their mini revival when they play next. There was always a chance that they'd eventually come good though, they're a team that was battling for seventh place right until the end of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 7 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said: Watford are 10th in the PL table in terms of expected points this season, far higher than us. They should be far higher up the table than they actually are but for some reason, are not. I think we would be wise not to underestimate them. Where should we be in terms of expected points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Where should we be in terms of expected points? 16th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danceoftheshamen Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 We cannot underestimate Watford, they have actually been playing very well just not quite getting the results from what i've heard. A very dangerous team and Deeney the Bluenose who hates us coming back from injury will likely make all the difference to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, danceoftheshamen said: We cannot underestimate Watford, they have actually been playing very well just not quite getting the results from what i've heard. A very dangerous team and Deeney the Bluenose who hates us coming back from injury will likely make all the difference to them. Exactly, I’d lie if I see I watch a game for Watford, but even results wise they’re not easy to beat, and grinding some draws. No game is easy in this league, only Norwich are in a big free fall, others are grinding results and are hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 07:44, villalad21 said: It's easier coming up trying to survive as a Sheffield United or Burnley style of team rather than what Blackpool, Fulham, Farke and Smith are trying to do. You know, I never understood the term "face-palm" until I read your comments. That Burnley style saw them get relegated when they first went up with Dyche. Sheffield United play a 3-5-2 formation and they will eventually get sussed out - next season if not this. Bournemouth have out-performed their stature because they have a manager with an attacking mindset and we have the same in Smith - embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 11 hours ago, MotoMkali said: I don't see us drawing with Watford. They are crap even if they have troy deeney. I think we should be able to smack them if we are fully fit. Everton would be too but it didn't stop us winning that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, Villarocker said: Everton would be too but it didn't stop us winning that one. Not sure what you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 (edited) 11 hours ago, MotoMkali said: The reason we are lower than them in expected points is because of the last 20 minutes of spurs, arsenal and Burnley etc. We sat back and let them have 20 shots. Against a team like Watford I think we are less likely to do that and potentially we may have changed tactics or Dean has wised up to the fact that he can use substitions before the opponents have scored multiple times. You know, I'd like to think Dean has wisened up after every match but have so far yet to be convinced that he has. Even in our wins against so called easier opposition in Brighton and Norwich we conceded 20 or more shots to the opposition, and I doubt that's gonna change anytime soon. Also, interesting tidbit I just noticed. Our expected goals conceded from open play is 6 more than our actual amount of goals conceded from open play. To put that into perspective, that means with the chances we've been conceding, we should have conceded 6 more goals from open play. That's a very large difference, wouldn't be surprised if its the largest in the league and its probably the reason why our expected points seem so low. Thing is, it implies we've been pretty lucky or our last ditch defending has been pretty great. Either way, I don't expect that difference to remain like that unless there's a drastic change in how we play and we're eventually gonna come into a game and just get battered by a side that happens to be lucky and super clinical on that day and suddenly, our goal difference isn't' going to look that great. Edited November 12, 2019 by Laughable Chimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said: You know, I'd like to think Dean has wisened up after every match but have so far yet to be convinced that he has. Even in our wins against so called easier opposition in Brighton and Norwich we conceded 20 or more shots to the opposition, and I doubt that's gonna change anytime soon. Also, interesting tidbit I just noticed. Our expected goals conceded from open play is 6 more than our actual amount of goals conceded from open play. To put that into perspective, that means with the chances we've been conceding, we should have conceded 6 more goals from open play. That's a very large difference, wouldn't be surprised if its the largest in the league and its probably the reason why our expected points seem so low. Thing is, it implies we've been pretty lucky or our last ditch defending has been pretty great. Either way, I don't expect that difference to remain like that unless there's a drastic change in how we play and we're eventually gonna come into a game and just get battered by a side that happens to be lucky and super clinical on that day and suddenly, our goal difference isn't' going to look that great. We seem to concede a lot of long range shots so a lot of them get blocked but because we have probably conceded somewhere in the region of 80-100 long shots it equates to around that amount of goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 I think we’ll finish 17th on goals difference and win the Carabao cup. I’ll take that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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