18/19 Race for Promotion

[Keyblade]

9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Think we need about 6 points from last two minimum which should do it. But I want 4thtbh

I know we field like 3 John McGinns every week but I didn't realize we got more points for wins too.

[terrytini]

32 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

We would have been bottom or near the bottom of that table last season. One of the reasons why I have more faith in a playoff run this season. 

Agree.

The downside ( sorry !) is that if we just look at the 4 teams above us, our record is Played 6, Won 0, Drawn 2, Lost 4, Scored 9, Conceeded 16.............

[terrytini]

1 minute ago, terrytini said:

Agree.

The downside ( sorry !) is that if we just look at the 4 teams above us, our record is Played 6, Won 0, Drawn 2, Lost 4, Scored 9, Conceeded 16.............

Then again....arguably the only one of those where we were in real trouble was Away at Sheffield United, which wasn’t under Smith.

 

[OutByEaster?]

Norwich has sold out. 

 

[MaVilla]

for the run in, the big thing form looking at what we need to make it, is Bristol have to play Derby, thats a big one for us as one of them will fall back from that game, or both if they draw.

If we win 2 of the next 4 games, that would mean Bristol and Derby would have to will pretty much all their remaining games to knock us out of the playoffs.

Bristol vs Derby is a big help for us as they are probably our two main rivals for the two remaning playoff places, with Boro prob the next team in line depending on their form in the last 4 games.

 

The below screen shot assumes:

- Derby win ALL their remaining games -  (vs. SHA / QPR / Swansea).......... except......... the Bristol vs Derby game i havent completed to show the effect on the league position.

- Bristol win ALL their remaining games - (vs. Reading / Sheff Wed / Milwall)............ except ........ the Bristol vs Derby game i havent completed to show the effect on the league position.

- Boro win ALL their remaining games. (vs. Stoke / Forest / Reading / Rotheram)

- Villa WIN vs Bolton & Milwall, but LOSE to Leeds & Norwich

- All other playoff teams win ALL games vs teams not challenging for the playoffs.

 

As you can see, even with the SUPER worst case scenario, we are still pretty close, so assuming some form of reality applies to the league results, it would seem 2/4 wins for us, "should" be enough for the playoffs.

 

 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

@MaVilla Derby and Bristol have 5 games left. I appreciate you have left out listing their game against each other, but you also omitted Bristol vs Hull and Derby vs West Brom, although you have them for wins in both too in the points total #Pedant  

As you rightly point out, the sequence of results listed above is so crazily unrealistic I am more than happy to say 2 wins and we are there. Let's get it done by Monday and put our feet up. 4th/5th/6th I don't care, bring it on. 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

1 hour ago, terrytini said:

Agree.

The downside ( sorry !) is that if we just look at the 4 teams above us, our record is Played 6, Won 0, Drawn 2, Lost 4, Scored 9, Conceeded 16.............

A few weird games in there though. We beat Albion away, didn't we, so flip that one around. The Sheffield home game felt more like a moral victory if nothing else and we were in crap form for both that and the home Albion game. And the Sheffield away game. Norwich was Smith's second game in charge IIRC and the less said about the capitulation to Leeds the better. 

All excuses I know, but we weren't even close to being the team we are now. So that entire table is irrelevant, as it will be for everyone come crunch time. 

[privateer]

1 hour ago, MaVilla said:

for the run in, the big thing form looking at what we need to make it, is Bristol have to play Derby, thats a big one for us as one of them will fall back from that game, or both if they draw.

If we win 2 of the next 4 games, that would mean Bristol and Derby would have to will pretty much all their remaining games to knock us out of the playoffs.

Bristol vs Derby is a big help for us as they are probably our two main rivals for the two remaning playoff places, with Boro prob the next team in line depending on their form in the last 4 games.

 

The below screen shot assumes:

- Derby win ALL their remaining games -  (vs. SHA / QPR / Swansea).......... except......... the Bristol vs Derby game i havent completed to show the effect on the league position.

- Bristol win ALL their remaining games - (vs. Reading / Sheff Wed / Milwall)............ except ........ the Bristol vs Derby game i havent completed to show the effect on the league position.

- Boro win ALL their remaining games. (vs. Stoke / Forest / Reading / Rotheram)

- Villa WIN vs Bolton & Milwall, but LOSE to Leeds & Norwich

- All other playoff teams win ALL games vs teams not challenging for the playoffs.

 

As you can see, even with the SUPER worst case scenario, we are still pretty close, so assuming some form of reality applies to the league results, it would seem 2/4 wins for us, "should" be enough for the playoffs.

 

 

Dude, that may be a super worst case scenario but this is the extra super worst case scenario. Granted, it is dependent upon us going on a losing streak that is the reverse of our winning streak and I've picked the worst results I could conceive out of all the other matches to get this.

As you say, applied reality suggests this is not possible but mathematically and theoretically it is.

 

 

[terrytini]

2 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

A few weird games in there though. We beat Albion away, didn't we, so flip that one around. The Sheffield home game felt more like a moral victory if nothing else and we were in crap form for both that and the home Albion game. And the Sheffield away game. Norwich was Smith's second game in charge IIRC and the less said about the capitulation to Leeds the better. 

All excuses I know, but we weren't even close to being the team we are now. So that entire table is irrelevant, as it will be for everyone come crunch time. 

Well I agree with Para 1 ( in as much as there are arguments to be made as to why those results against the Top 4 might look worse than e games themselves merit ) but I’ve no idea why you then see the need to say “ that entire table is irrelevant “.

I simply posted how teams have done against each other. I thought it interesting, and so thought others may also. You may consider it’s irrelevant - and even declare it so - but it’s fairly common to find tables used in football as a means of assessing relative qualities etc.......

As it happens, as all my Posts indicate, I have every confidence in us.

[Junxs]

15 hours ago, terrytini said:

Or they do indeed finish 4th but we finish 6th.

Tut tut

[rubberman]

So ideally 7 games to go. 

We are just not going to win 15 in a row. But we need to win the last 3 (or at least 2 of them) and probably 2 of the remaining league games. 

So that makes Norwich or Leeds a 'must lose' game.  Errr I think.

Maybe draws would be enough to make the not losing streak still realistic. 

[Villan_of_oz]

8 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

A few weird games in there though. We beat Albion away, didn't we, so flip that one around. The Sheffield home game felt more like a moral victory if nothing else and we were in crap form for both that and the home Albion game. And the Sheffield away game. Norwich was Smith's second game in charge IIRC and the less said about the capitulation to Leeds the better. 

All excuses I know, but we weren't even close to being the team we are now. So that entire table is irrelevant, as it will be for everyone come crunch time. 

Away Albion game was a draw, with the Rodriguez late equaliser  with his arm.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Villan_of_oz

[Demitri_C]

5 minutes ago, Villan_of_oz said:

Away Albion game was a draw, with the Rodriguez late equaliser  with his arm.

That's why I dobt mind playing albion. That incident really will fire us up. 

[Villan_of_oz]

1 minute ago, Demitri_C said:

That's why I dobt mind playing albion. That incident really will fire us up. 

I know we well beaten at home by them but that was before, this is now, I reckon we'll trounce them....

They're going to get bad Karma for sacking Darren Moore

[Demitri_C]

2 minutes ago, Villan_of_oz said:

I know we well beaten at home by them but that was before, this is now, I reckon we'll trounce them....

They're going to get bad Karma for sacking Darren Moore

Hope so mate. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

3 minutes ago, Villan_of_oz said:

I know we well beaten at home by them but that was before, this is now, I reckon we'll trounce them....

They're going to get bad Karma for sacking Darren Moore

Did we get well beaten or was it 2 shit goals in a few minutes while our keeper was concussed? 

I heard we played quite well. 

Plus as you say we’re a different beast now. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

17 minutes ago, rubberman said:

So ideally 7 games to go. 

We are just not going to win 15 in a row. But we need to win the last 3 (or at least 2 of them) and probably 2 of the remaining league games. 

So that makes Norwich or Leeds a 'must lose' game.  Errr I think.

Maybe draws would be enough to make the not losing streak still realistic. 

I wonder what the record is for winning streaks in this league.  Plus we could always lose or draw one of the legs and still qualify.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

15 minutes ago, Villan_of_oz said:

Away Albion game was a draw, with the Rodriguez late equaliser  with his arm.

I know. 

[Villan_of_oz]

15 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

I know. 

Sorry, your post indicated otherwise. I must of misunderstood

Edited April 15, 2019 by Villan_of_oz

[Mark Albrighton]

1 minute ago, Villan_of_oz said:

Sorry, your post indicated otherwise. I must of misunderstood

DDID speaks of a moral victory.