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Israel, Palestine and Iran


Swerbs

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20 hours ago, Awol said:

Any events in particular? There's quite a lot happening!

Well, I was thinking the Saudi oil facilities being blown to pieces at the time, but stuff has happened since. What’s your take on that and then the developing ‘escalations’

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The elections have caused quite a mess around here,  but there's some hope for something different. 

I went over some of the comments here. People just don't know what's going on here. Talking about annexations as if it's even an option. No one, NO ONE (!!!!) even consider it. Not Netanyahu, not Gantz. No one. But it's election time and Netanyahu tried to spin things a bit. Even his followers didn't but it.  Theses elections had nothing to do with the Palestinians or Iran. They were around one topic and one topic only - for or against Netanyahu. Not Netanyahu's way (since no one really knows what's his way), not Gantz's economic beliefs. Not even close. It was pro or against Bibi's desire to keep ruling, most probably in order to protect him from the judicial storm he's about to face very soon. For now it seems as a draw with a slight advantage to the against-Bibi group (Yey!!!!).

The interesting part is The Arab party's willingness to support one of the candidates. In recent elections they went AWOL and refused to take part in the game, but the growing desire of the younger-generation to become more "Israeli" drives their representatives to change their course and I am glad for it.

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20 hours ago, Tayls said:

Well, I was thinking the Saudi oil facilities being blown to pieces at the time, but stuff has happened since. What’s your take on that and then the developing ‘escalations’

Those behind the US decision to pull the plug on the JCPOA seemed to believe (against all historical evidence) that ramping up sanctions would push Iran back to the negotiating table - to incorporate their conventional missile programme, support for terrorism & non-state armed groups - & into a new, improved JCPOA. 

Those sanctions have pretty much closed down Iranian oil exports & the attacks in Saudi are them pushing back against the US by demonstrating they can hold global energy supplies at risk. 

IMO they’ve got the measure of Trump’s bluster (all fart & no s**t) & are trying to force an end to US sanctions, gambling he won’t risk conflict before the 2020 elections.

Concurrently, Iranian, Chinese & Russian naval forces are shortly to conduct joint exercises in the Gulf of Oman, next to the Straits of Hormuz. This bandwagoning of illiberal states (increasingly to include Turkey) is part of a wider challenge to the so called ‘rules based liberal order’, freedom of navigation at sea, etc.

FWIW I think things might get quite bumpy over the next few years with lots of possible flash points - Korean Peninsula, South China Sea, Persian Gulf, Ukraine et al. The West is unprepared materially or psychologically to deal with any of it, which isn’t great. 

Also looks like we might be in for the next round of Arab uprisings, the Egyptians are getting back on the streets demanding Sisi is removed - he’s locked up 60,000 political prisoners since coming to power & is more repressive than Mubarak ever was. 

I don’t know enough about the internal politics of Israel to understand how that’s gonna turn out, but externally it seems likely they’ll be in a big fight with Hezbollah before too long. That really depends on how it goes between the US & Iran. The IDF hitting Iranian militia & IRGC targets in Iraq (x3) has raised some eyebrows! 

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On 22/09/2019 at 11:50, Awol said:

I don’t know enough about the internal politics of Israel to understand how that’s gonna turn out, but externally it seems likely they’ll be in a big fight with Hezbollah before too long. That really depends on how it goes between the US & Iran. The IDF hitting Iranian militia & IRGC targets in Iraq (x3) has raised some eyebrows! 

Regardless of who'll form the next government, I don't think there'll any major change in tactics concerning Iran. Israel is trying to hamper Hezbollah attempts to grab advanced weaponry and despite hitting the shipments hard, I reckon Hezbollah has got enough weaponry as it is. I am unsure of any big fights with Hezbollah in the near future as both sides have got too much to lose. In any case, Hezbollah has the ability in inflict damage on Israeli cities, but they are no real match to the IDF and they know it. This means that any aggressive acts towards Israel will bring the Israeli PM to send the IDF with all guns blazing, as a warning both to Hezbollah and to Iran. Lebanon will pay dearly in such case and I am unsure of their willingness to get into this mess at the moment. 

All in all - I think that if Iran and its proxies will get more aggressive, it will bring together Israel and the Sunni states, such as Saudi Arabia, as they are under a much greater threat than Israel is. It all depends on the US readiness to be active. If the US will be determined to keep Iran at bay - things will continue to be relatively quiet here. If Trump will do a Trump, things might deteriorate with time.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Massive anti-government protests growing across southern Iraq, scores of civilians murdered by security forces & Iranian aligned militias. 

Turkey preparing to invade NE Syria & smash the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces - Syrian Kurds plus some local Arab tribes.

ISIS recovering rapidly, carrying out a devastating assassination campaign within areas it formerly occupied, and is assessed to have the strength to attack and take a major urban centre in Iraq or Syria if it chose to (but more likely to continue rebuilding its operational strength, for now). 

Far too many plates spinning in the region right now & odds of another major disaster unfolding are shortening quickly. 

 

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16 hours ago, Awol said:

Turkey preparing to invade NE Syria & smash the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces - Syrian Kurds plus some local Arab tribes.

Not backed by the US any more. Trump's abandoned them to be killed by the Turks

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27 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

we've had a dabble, been surprised at the cost and complexity, don't fancy it

rinse and repeat

More a case of "look over there!", from Trump. perhaps?

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yet another betrayal of the Kurds by the West

Europe will probably breathe a sigh of relief as Erdogen threatened to send the million Syrian refugees their way ..this move allows them to be shipped to this new territory , assuming they defeat the kurds ..

The Kurds may be left with little option to side with Assad in Syria before the Turks do to them what they did to Armenia   ...  as for the estimated 10,000 ISIS soldiers the kurds hold captive , who knows , maybe coming to an airport or train station near ear you sometime soon 

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