chrisp65 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 3 hours ago, blandy said: More a case of "look over there!", from Trump. perhaps? oh I'd be sure there's been a perfectly novel excuse every time they've been shat on not sure the detail and nuance will be of that much interest to the folks on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 36 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Europe will probably breathe a sigh of relief as Erdogen threatened to send the million Syrian refugees their way ..this move allows them to be shipped to this new territory , assuming they defeat the kurds .. I gather Turkey has something like 3.5m Syrian refugees, so the threat he made about opening the border and letting them head for the EU is still there. As for the threat of invading Syria again, annexing a piece of land with 750k people already living there, building settlements and bussing people in, it's a bit Israeli in conception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: oh I'd be sure there's been a perfectly novel excuse every time they've been shat on not sure the detail and nuance will be of that much interest to the folks on the ground that's pretty much the crux of the matter , to most people Kurds are something little miss muffet eats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 7, 2019 Moderator Share Posted October 7, 2019 Doesn't this all just send Turkey spinning into Putin's hands instead? They've already got some Russian infrastructure iirc and this will just push them further in that direction, which was the whole point of the EU trying to keep Turkey onside in the first place SVR Agent Trump strikes again, sometimes agents are in plain sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, bickster said: Doesn't this all just send Turkey spinning into Putin's hands instead? They've already got some Russian infrastructure iirc and this will just push them further in that direction, which was the whole point of the EU trying to keep Turkey onside in the first place SVR Agent Trump strikes again, sometimes agents are in plain sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 8 hours ago, blandy said: Not backed by the US any more. Trump's abandoned them to be killed by the Turks It something the Americans have always done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: It something the Americans have always done. I don’t think we’re in a position to throw stones here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I don’t think we’re in a position to throw stones here. My original post was us and America. Just the West in general really . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 On 06/10/2019 at 18:32, Awol said: ISIS recovering rapidly, carrying out a devastating assassination campaign within areas it formerly occupied, and is assessed to have the strength to attack and take a major urban centre in Iraq or Syria if it chose to (but more likely to continue rebuilding its operational strength, for now). Weird that all the talk in the media states that they have been defeated. Howcome there is no mention of them regrouping and carrying out attacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Just now, Tayls said: Weird that all the talk in the media states that they have been defeated. Howcome there is no mention of them regrouping and carrying out attacks? Old news that’s why. Terrorism isn’t the main story it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 On 07/10/2019 at 20:31, Tayls said: Weird that all the talk in the media states that they have been defeated. Howcome there is no mention of them regrouping and carrying out attacks? Media not a great source for this stuff & it’s also pretty difficult for Western governments to admit having built up the loss of the Caliphate as terminal for ISIS. They began preparing a return to waging insurgency even before Mosul was retaken. ISIS are in it for the long haul & maintain support because the underlying social factors that enabled their rise (corruption, political sectarianism etc) remain unchanged in Iraq & Syria. If you fancy digging into it google the Institute for the Study of War, they do great work tracking what’s really happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Turkish forces has entered Syria apparently Quote Turkish Troops Begin Crossing Into Syria After U.S. Stands Aside Turkish troops have begun crossing into northeastern Syria to force back Kurdish militants controlling the border area, a Turkish official told Bloomberg, days after Donald Trump said the U.S. wouldn’t stand in the way. A small forward group of Turkish forces entered Syria early Wednesday at two points along the frontier, close to the Syrian towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, in preparation for the broader offensive, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. There was no immediate comment from Kurdish-led forces, who vowed earlier in a televised news conference from Syria’s northern city of Hasake to defend themselves against any Turkish offensive. The Turkish lira held steady as the first stages of the incursion got underway, changing hands at about 5.831 per dollar after erasing an earlier gain of 0.2%. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said “deployments and work is still underway regarding the operation,” according to state-run TRT television. In a dramatic reversal of U.S. policy, Trump told Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a phone call on Sunday that dozens of American troops who’d been working closely with Kurdish-led forces in the fight against Islamic State would pull back, effectively clearing the way for a Turkish advance. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/turkey-says-its-military-will-cross-syrian-border-shortly?srnd=premium-europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 So the US got the Kurds to remove their defences along the Turkish border a couple of weeks before Trump invited Turkey to invade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Would be shocked if Israel doesn't use this turmoil at Syria's northern borders to expand their "buffer zone" on the Golan Heights even further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 A view on the Russian position. Quote ...In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. First, you need to demonstrate empathy on issues that are sensitive and important to Turkish security. Second, clearly outline your own red lines and a corridor of opportunities for future cooperation on these issues. Third, take advantage of mistakes made by the other party whose position is important to Ankara — the United States — and use the contrast to your advantage. The statement by Kremlin’s spokesman reveals the ABCs of Russia's approach to Turkey. Despite its wise posture on the issue, Moscow is wary that the Turkish operation may upset its own important projects, among them Russia's brainchild, the Syrian Constitutional Committee. “It is important to refrain from any actions that may create obstacles on the path of Syrian settlement," Peskov said. "We know that certain perspectives are opening up and we understand that it will be a long and thorny path. And now that the Syrian Constitutional Committee has been formed and when the date for its meetings has been appointed, it is vital to refrain from any steps that may harm Syrian settlement." Russia’s primary concern is the future of the committee, and it is sending a message to Turkey that its offensive in northeast Syria must not impede the committee's progress. Russia also wants to convey to Turkey a message regarding the commitment made by the "Astana guarantor states" — Russia, Turkey and Iran — to preserve Syria's territorial integrity. "The Kremlin knows Turkey is committed to the postulate of Syria’s territorial and political integrity, to the understanding that Syria’s territorial integrity is the point of departure," Peskov said. "We hope that our Turkish counterparts will first and foremost adhere to this postulate in all situations." Although it sounds like Russia is persuading itself with this statement — and wanting Turkey to hear it — the statement also reflects a worry of the Kremlin's, that the Turkish operation may reinforce the trend of Kurdish separatism, or perhaps lead to a lasting foreign occupation of Syrian territory. A source in the Russian military told Al-Monitor, “Turkey is now willing to do on its own what the Americans have failed to provide to it via their joint 'safe zone' thing. It may drag the situation out of a stalemate where it’s been for a long while. The fight for control in that area was long coming; now it’s time for a face-off. But we need to keep an eye on these guys, you know. If running unchecked, Erdogan may wreak some unnecessary havoc.” Regarding the concern over a potential occupation, Peskov reiterated another Russian principle on Syria, that “all foreign troops illegally present in Syria must leave the country." In policy terms, this means Russia expects Turkey to “satisfy its security need,” but to not maintain a permanent military presence in Syria. This is where the Kremlin is likely to draw the line, but this is also where Moscow expects to play a bigger role. By not preventing Turkey from launching its military offensive, Russia exploits Washington’s wedges with both Ankara and the Kurds. Russia expects, and not without good reason, to subsequently lead a two-track mediation between the Syrian government and the Kurds, and Damascus and Ankara. Given the current circumstances, a discussion of a return to the Adana agreement, which Putin reinitiated at the latest Astana trio talks in Ankara, looks even more logical now. Putin brought up the idea publicly earlier this year at a meeting with Erdogan in Moscow and has meticulously promoted it ever since. Turkey's operation will end one way or another, but a subsequent political solution should frame the situation on the ground. Moscow expects Ankara to embrace the Adana agreement as the basis for such a solution, which is Russia's third message to Turkey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Erdogan and his followers need to be liquidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 14 hours ago, Dr_Pangloss said: Erdogan and his followers need to be liquidated. Pity the coup against him failed, as quite a few people mentioned at the time. Reuters reporting Erdogan’s latest threats in a televised speech this morning. Apparently if Europe continues to label Turkey’s invasion of Syria as an invasion, he will open the border and drive more Syrian refugees into Europe. Meanwhile the Iranians are mulling sending 1000’s of security force personnel into Iraq to quell the anti-government demonstrations. NE Syria (& our Kurdish partners) are the nexus around which that whole theatre pivots. It effects Iran, Iraq, Turkey & Syria directly. The fact Trump did this after a chat with Erdogan, who has sought & gained Putin’s consent, tells you everything. Bad ju ju. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 The fact that Trump is going against Republican interests here may be what gets him impeached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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