colhint Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I wonder if many half and half scarves will be sold? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakotaDakota Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 27 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: Let’s suppose we are flipping a coin: heads represents a win and tails represents a draw (‘cause we can’t lose). if you flip a head, then next time you toss the coin, what are the odds of flipping a head or tails? The same of course, 50/50 (and I do mean 50%/50% ). Now that’s not to say the odds of flipping two heads in a row is 50%. That would be 25% (0.50 x 0.50 = 0.25). But once you’ve already flipped one head / one won game, the odds of the next flip see no history. Obviously football results aren’t binary if that even needs saying but the explanation stands. 7 consecutive heads is a 1 in 128 shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted February 11, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted February 11, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said: 7 consecutive heads is a 1 in 128 shot Yes but 1 heads after 6 heads in a row is a 1 in 2 shot, that’s the point. The next match/coin toss isn’t affected by what’s happened before. of course, that’s not strictly true in terms of football in which there are countless factors that influence the probability. but in regards to the OP that we are less likely to win because we have already won 6 in a row - as with the coin toss, that is not true - the next result is still 50/50. Edited February 11, 2018 by fightoffyour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srsmithusa Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3 hours ago, fightoffyour said: Yes but 1 heads after 6 heads in a row is a 1 in 2 shot, that’s the point. The next match/coin toss isn’t affected by what’s happened before. of course, that’s not strictly true in terms of football in which there are countless factors that influence the probability. but in regards to the OP that we are less likely to win because we have already won 6 in a row - as with the coin toss, that is not true - the next result is still 50/50. That’s all mathematically correct. But it assumes that each binary decision is 50-50 each ( like a coin toss). But football matches are not. If we played man city 1 time, the odds are not 50/50. Let’s assume they are 19/1. They would be 19/1 in the second match too. And 19/1 in the third match. Unless weather, injuries, referee, or some other factor changes. Which is all meaningless as re the original question, we are not more likely to lose simply because we won the last 6. (or 2 or 200). Each match probability does a reset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted February 11, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted February 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, srsmithusa said: That’s all mathematically correct. But it assumes that each binary decision is 50-50 each ( like a coin toss). But football matches are not. If we played man city 1 time, the odds are not 50/50. Let’s assume they are 19/1. They would be 19/1 in the second match too. And 19/1 in the third match. Unless weather, injuries, referee, or some other factor changes. Which is all meaningless as re the original question, we are not more likely to lose simply because we won the last 6. (or 2 or 200). Each match probability does a reset. Yeh that’s what I said (or tried to). I just used 50/50 or 1/1 odds to make the simple coin analogy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted February 11, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted February 11, 2018 Alright less than 6 hours to kick off and I'm going to bed now. When I get up it's time for... COME ON ME VILLA BABBIES!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: Alright less than 6 hours to kick off and I'm going to bed now. When I get up it's time for... COME ON ME VILLA BABBIES!! Ah lucky. I have to drag through work first. The game comes on right after I get off though. Time is absolutely crawling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Good Morning Sports Fans. The City Is Ours! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don_Simon Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 The day is here. Let's **** do this Villa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I’ll be offline soon. So won’t know a thing till around 4. So... UTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Kick the **** out of 'em villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Go into this thinking it’s going to be a scrappy 1-0 and we’ll get a scrappy 1-0. Keep concentrated and focused, but let’s not make them something they are not. Should be panning these comfortably. 26 point difference in the table, let’s show them why. 4-0 villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 (edited) Trevor Francis, Robert Hopkins, Kenny Burns, Joe Gallagher, Pat van den Hauwe, Julian Dicks, Paul Tait, Noel Blake, Craig Gardner your boys are going to take a hell of a beating. A Second City derby win which will move us into second place, give us a seventh successive win and keep Small Heath just two points clear of the bottom three make it so Villa! Edited February 11, 2018 by John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, John said: Trevor Francis, Robert Hopkins, Kenny Burns, Joe Gallagher, Pat van den Hauwe, Julian Dicks, Paul Tait, Noel Blake, Craig Gardner your boys are going to take a hell of a beating. A Second City derby win which will move us into second place, give us a seventh successive win and keep Small Heath just two points clear of the bottom three make it so Villa! You forgot Jasper Carrot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeyp102 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 On the peasant wagon into town now to start a day of drinking. Have to admit I’m nervous, Derby’s result was great for us yesterday, it’ll be just our luck to **** it up against these rocket polishers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 A draw at their place is never a bad result, but it's always different at our place, so nothing less than 3 points will do. If we win we go up to second. The fans will be behind the team, and Brucie has had a bad week, so let's put half a smile back on his face. UTV 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 (edited) Game day Edited February 11, 2018 by Xela 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: You forgot Jasper Carrot. When did he play for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, John said: Trevor Francis, Robert Hopkins, Kenny Burns, Joe Gallagher, Pat van den Hauwe, Julian Dicks, Paul Tait, Noel Blake, Craig Gardner your boys are going to take a hell of a beating. What a bunch of chunts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, John said: When did he play for them? He plays for them most weeks dont he? Well I thought he did, them being the biggest comedy act in the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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