omariqy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think Derby, Bristol and Cardiff will fall away slightly. Teams I am worried about are Leeds, Boro and Fulham. Fulham especially are playing fantastically well and could make a late charge. Although they have issues at the back and have a fair bit of ground to make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Keyblade said: You're also forgetting Vydra who's on fire for them right now. Yes silly me to forget him. He's playing like he did at Watford when I think he was best young player in this division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
withes_shin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, rubberman said: Indeed. 4 out of 38 league goals have come from forwards - 2 for Davis, 1 for Hogan and 1 for Gabby. The midfield have been doing well for us, but if we added a goal scoring forward - Hogan in form or a new loan seem most likely, or possibly RHM - that would transform us. Davis seems a bit 'Heskey' so I'm not sure we'll ever see a prolific season from him, despite what he adds to the team in more general play. Doesn't sound like we'll see Kodjia back for much of this season. Didn't Kodjia get a penalty against someone this season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, withes_shin said: Didn't Kodjia get a penalty against someone this season? Bolton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, VillaChris said: Surprised at this...plenty of experience in Davies, Huddlestone (two promotions with Hull and borderline premier league players) and Joe Ledley was a great pick up for them as it seems they've hardly lost since he joined (he does a similar job to Jedinak). Upfront they have Tom Lawrence who was great for Ipswich last season and is scoring a few for Wales, Weimann who know has a manager who rates him so should be a decent player at this level and they can pick from Chris Martin, Winnall and Nugent as the experienced striker, all got proven records in the championship. In terms of ability they've easily got a top 6 squad. Also in terms of wage bill. Darren Bent is still on their payroll. You're right. They do have a lot of experience. I just look at their team and for some reason it doesn't appeal to me. But then again when I look at Villas team it doesn't appeal to me either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, rubberman said: Indeed. 4 out of 38 league goals have come from forwards - 2 for Davis, 1 for Hogan and 1 for Gabby. The midfield have been doing well for us, but if we added a goal scoring forward - Hogan in form or a new loan seem most likely, or possibly RHM - that would transform us. Davis seems a bit 'Heskey' so I'm not sure we'll ever see a prolific season from him, despite what he adds to the team in more general play. Doesn't sound like we'll see Kodjia back for much of this season. This is my concern. While it's great goals have come from all over the pitch we really do need a 10 goal striker at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 hours ago, DCJonah said: It's an interesting stat. Suggests we are a fit kodjia away from sitting in 2nd. I think that's basically a certainty. Shows how much we really need this decent performance from Hogan not to be a false dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lichfield Dean Posted January 4, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 17:34, HanoiVillan said: I think that's basically a certainty. Shows how much we really need this decent performance from Hogan not to be a false dawn. See, this is where I don't have any great faith in the expected goals stat. If we change the team to introduce Kodjia, then surely we are potentially disrupting the creation of those chances that have led to our xg rating. We all know Kodjia isn't a great 'team' player anyway so I just don't think this interpretation of the stats is a certainty at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 51 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said: See, this is where I don't have any great faith in the expected goals stat. If we change the team to introduce Kodjia, then surely we are potentially disrupting the creation of those chances that have led to our xg rating. We all know Kodjia isn't a great 'team' player anyway so I just don't think this interpretation of the stats is a certainty at all. I don't think it would affect the creation of chances so much but would probably affect the conversion of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a m ole Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Lichfield Dean said: See, this is where I don't have any great faith in the expected goals stat. If we change the team to introduce Kodjia, then surely we are potentially disrupting the creation of those chances that have led to our xg rating. We all know Kodjia isn't a great 'team' player anyway so I just don't think this interpretation of the stats is a certainty at all. The idea of xG is to compensate for these variations to create the most accurate prediction they can. When analysts design their models they’re actively looking for these sorts of things. A more simplistic model might just take into account shots taken and conversion, but a complex model could incorporate an individual’s stats and starting XIs, match events like subs and cards, shot location, crucial pass type and distance, and any number of other recorded stats weighed against the oppositions defensive statistics. Whether any model has or will get close to being reliable I have no idea! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stegzy Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I think Jedinak is so crucial to us at the moment, not that he’s been amazing but the fact he can sit in front of our comparably small centre halfs and win headers and allow Hourihane and Grealish to play in front of him is crucial to our shape. I’m very concerned with his injury record and fitness though so think maybe we should try and sign another big DM on loan in the window so we can keep this system when he can’t play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 hours ago, stegzy said: I think Jedinak is so crucial to us at the moment, not that he’s been amazing but the fact he can sit in front of our comparably small centre halfs and win headers and allow Hourihane and Grealish to play in front of him is crucial to our shape. I’m very concerned with his injury record and fitness though so think maybe we should try and sign another big DM on loan in the window so we can keep this system when he can’t play. As much as I agree I am not sure this will happen since we have the magnificence of Whelan as his back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Well its interesting isnt it? I never saw for the life of me us beating boro and then battering Bristol City 5-0. It could have even been more. What has been really pleasing is that both games we have looked pretty comfortable and two clean sheets without Terry OR Taylor. I think this could be a turning point now, hopefully we have had our blip now and to be 4-5 points from second for me is a miracle considering the recent results. We could have quite easily gone down the Cardiff and Sheff United route prior to the Brentford game. Its great to bounce back with a win. After this weeks FA CUP game we go to Forest a place we lost and you know SKY will want the same to happen again. Time to exercise our demons here and not have another brentford. Big Terry, Green should be back leaving only Big Kodj and Lansbury as our main injury worries (not including gabby) For me its now about putting the pressure on Derby by us winning games. We sent a message to the rest of the league on NYD and its now time to start doing this regularly no more excuses lets stick together get behind Bruce and the team and really go for promotion and back to where we belong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carewjust4u Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Well its interesting isnt it? I never saw for the life of me us beating boro and then battering Bristol City 5-0. It could have even been more. What has been really pleasing is that both games we have looked pretty comfortable and two clean sheets without Terry OR Taylor. I think this could be a turning point now, hopefully we have had our blip now and to be 4-5 points from second for me is a miracle considering the recent results. We could have quite easily gone down the Cardiff and Sheff United route prior to the Brentford game. Its great to bounce back with a win. This is literally what I've been thinking all week. I don't know about you guys but this week I've been very positive and confident following the result on NYD, I can only imagine the effect it's had on the players. As you said, the best part is how we've closed the gap to 5 points, when 2 games ago it felt our season was over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, carewjust4u said: This is literally what I've been thinking all week. I don't know about you guys but this week I've been very positive and confident following the result on NYD, I can only imagine the effect it's had on the players. As you said, the best part is how we've closed the gap to 5 points, when 2 games ago it felt our season was over. Yes I have to say this is the most positive I have felt for years. It feels like the club is coming alive again. After the Bristol result I think home attendances will go up which can only be a good thing surely ? The last two games have finally shown us fulfilling our potential. Lets hope it continues ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 @BOF how are we doing against the top 10 now after the Bristol City results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted January 5, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, omariqy said: @BOF how are we doing against the top 10 now after the Bristol City results? Funny enough we are probably doing worse as Ipswich and Forrest have dropped out of the top 10. Shows how you can' really gather much from this stat as it changes without us doing anything. Still interesting all the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: Yes I have to say this is the most positive I have felt for years. It feels like the club is coming alive again. After the Bristol result I think home attendances will go up which can only be a good thing surely ? The last two games have finally shown us fulfilling our potential. Lets hope it continues ! For myself, i'm still very wary, mainly because of many many false dawns over the years. Until we are actually in second position, playing catch-up is still massively worrying to me. The Villa way is to make us feel optimistic and dash all hope straight after! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted January 5, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: Yes I have to say this is the most positive I have felt for years. It feels like the club is coming alive again. After the Bristol result I think home attendances will go up which can only be a good thing surely ? The last two games have finally shown us fulfilling our potential. Lets hope it continues ! I agree. Plus we have a run of slightly easier fixtures now... so hopefully that can help us build some momentum going in to the end of Feb and spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Potentially (if Sheff Utd gets rearranged) the only tricky fixture we have until March when we play Wolves is Fulham away. The rest are definitely winnable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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